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US strikes on Qeshm keep Hormuz on edge as Qatar says Iran talks go on, and the dollar holds its jobs gains before CPI
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FX news today starts with the Gulf: US forces struck Iranian air defences on Qeshm Island late on Friday, while President Trump said talks with Tehran were making progress and Qatar insisted mediation continues. Currency markets reopen with the dollar still holding the gains it made on Friday's strong jobs report, and Tuesday's US inflation figures are the next big test.
Below: what happened around the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, where the dollar, sterling, the yen and gold stand on our price feed, what forecasters expect from Tuesday's CPI, and the dates for the week in UK time with ET in brackets. Levels for gold and the majors appear in the free Forexuro Telegram channel every trading day.
Free on Telegram. Gold and dollar levels for CPI week, with entry, stop and three targets.
Strikes on Qeshm and talks with Iran
The US military carried out limited new air strikes in southern Iran on Friday night, Euronews reported. Speaking to reporters, Trump described a "minor" action against an Iranian air defence installation on Qeshm Island and said the US had made "a lot of progress with Iran" in negotiations led by Qatar. Iranian state media reported two missile strikes in the Suza area of the island, The National reported.
On Saturday, Qatar's foreign ministry spokesman Majed al Ansari dismissed claims that talks between the US and Iran had failed, Al Jazeera reported, and Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said a settlement could still be reached. Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said he had held talks with 12 foreign ministers in 48 hours. The core gap remains Iran's nuclear programme, which Washington wants settled as part of any deal.
Shipping in the Gulf stays under pressure
The manager of the oil products tanker MT Velos said a crew member died after the vessel was struck by suspected projectiles in the Gulf on Thursday, and another tanker reported an explosion near its waterline while crossing Hormuz, with its crew safe, Investing.com reported. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues to complicate traffic.
For currency traders this keeps two forces in play. Hopes of a deal pulled oil sharply lower last week and eased inflation worries, while each new incident revives the risk premium. Gold sits between the two: safe haven demand on one side, and on the other the outlook for US rates, which Tuesday's data will shape. Our guide to what moves the gold price explains how those drivers interact.
Monday morning: Trump signals restraint and China inflation lands
Trump told CNN on Sunday that new US attacks on Iran were "highly unlikely" to be necessary while talks to end the conflict make progress, Reuters reported. Brent crude traded near $98.35 a barrel early on Monday, after falling 16% last week, its steepest weekly drop since the start of the pandemic. Qatar's prime minister meets Trump at the White House on Monday, and both countries reported attacks on shipping in or near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.
China's National Bureau of Statistics reported at 01:30 UK time that October consumer prices rose 0.7% from a year earlier, just below the 0.8% that economists polled by Reuters expected, and down from 0.9% in September. Core inflation eased to 0.8%. Producer prices rose 5.7%, the fastest pace since June 2022 and above the 5.3% forecast, as higher energy costs lifted mining and raw material prices.
On our price feed at about 07:15 UK time, the dollar index was near 102.05, down about 0.3% from Friday's close. EUR/USD traded near 1.1166, GBP/USD near 1.3387, USD/JPY near 158.16 and spot gold near $4,105 an ounce, up about 1% from Friday's close near $4,066.
Where the majors and gold stand
Friday's US jobs report did most of the work. Employers added 165,000 jobs in October, and on our hourly feed EUR/USD fell from about 1.1168 at 13:00 UK time to 1.1144 an hour later. It ended the week near 1.1142. GBP/USD closed near 1.3351 and USD/JPY near 158.49, while spot gold recovered from a dip to close near $4,070.93.
COMEX gold futures for December delivery gained $176, or 4.5%, over the week to settle at $4,074.9 an ounce, PTI reported. Our desk caught the second leg of the rally: a gold buy at $3,947 that closed on 3 November reached its third target at $3,997 for +500 pips. Every closed trade is on the gold signal results page, and session levels are on EUR/USD today.
FX news today: what to watch on Tuesday
Forecasters expect October CPI to rise 0.3% on the month, after 0.6% in September, with core prices up 0.2%, Newsquawk reported in its week ahead preview. It also noted that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish annual rates this time, because October 2025 prices were not collected during the government shutdown. Money markets priced about a 75% chance of a Fed rate rise in December after the jobs report. Our guide to CPI and PPI data explains why core prices usually matter more than the headline.
| Release | UK time | ET |
|---|---|---|
| US CPI, October, Tuesday 10 November | 13:30 | 8:30am |
| UK GDP monthly estimate, September, Thursday 12 November | 07:00 | 2:00am |
| UK CPI, October, Wednesday 18 November | 07:00 | 2:00am |
The full week, with past readings for each release, is on our economic calendar.
Follow CPI week with Forexuro
The free Forexuro Telegram channel posts free signals every trading day, usually between about 05:00 and 15:00 UK time, each with an entry, a stop and three targets. VIP is £99 a month or £549 one time for more signals and live management. Trading carries risk, and past results are not a reliable guide to future results.
Official sources
Official pages for the decisions, data and schedules behind this report.
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI schedule, CPI release dates
- Office for National Statistics release calendar, UK GDP and CPI dates
Frequently asked questions
What happened on Qeshm Island on 6 November 2026?
US forces carried out what President Trump called minor strikes on an Iranian air defence installation on the island, in the Strait of Hormuz.
Are the US and Iran still negotiating?
Trump said the US had made a lot of progress, and Qatar said on 7 November that its mediators remain in close contact with both sides.
Where did EUR/USD close on 6 November 2026?
Near 1.1142 on our price feed, after falling about 24 pips in the hour after the US jobs report.
What time is US CPI on 10 November 2026?
13:30 UK time, which is 8:30am ET.
Sources
- CNBC: China wholesale inflation hits highest in more than four years
- Arab News (Reuters): Oil steadies after Trump signals restraint on Iran
- Euronews: US launches new targeted strikes on Iran as Trump claims progress in talks
- Al Jazeera: Will Trump strike nuclear sites again?
- The National: Araghchi held talks with 12 foreign ministers
- Investing.com: Trump signals Iran peace progress as Hormuz attacks threaten talks
- Newsquawk: Week in focus, 9 to 13 November 2026
- CNBC TV18 (PTI): Gold and silver outlook for next week
- Data for the chart: Forexuro's hourly price feed, Friday 6 November 2026.
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Economic calendar · Gold today · EUR/USD today · XAU/USD signal results