October payrolls on Friday 6 November: a small gain is expected, and gold is back above $4,000
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The NFP November 2026 release, covering October jobs, comes out on Friday 6 November at 13:30 UK time, which is 8:30am ET. Economists expect a modest gain of around 60,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.2%, so the reaction in gold and the dollar will depend on how far the number lands from that forecast.
This preview covers the forecasts, the September starting point, how the report usually moves gold and the main pairs, and what our signals did on the last two payroll Fridays. The free Forexuro Telegram channel posts gold and forex levels every trading day.
Free on Telegram. Gold and dollar levels before and after payrolls, with entry, stop and three targets.
Where the jobs market stands after September
The September report showed payrolls rising by just 29,000, after a revised 133,000 in August, with the unemployment rate at 4.2% and average hourly earnings up 3.0% on the year, according to the BLS figures stored on our nonfarm payrolls event page. That was a soft month, and it pulled the three month average close to 50,000.
Weekly jobless claims stayed low through October, Wells Fargo noted, while job openings moved sideways. The bank described the labor market as one of stability, with job growth running near breakeven.
NFP November 2026: the forecasts
Forecasts for Friday cluster below 100,000. The table compares the published calls with the September result.
| Measure | Consensus | Range of bank calls | September |
|---|---|---|---|
| Payrolls change | 60,000 | 50,000 to 100,000 | 29,000 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | 4.2%, with a risk of 4.1% | 4.2% |
| Average hourly earnings, month | 0.3% | 0.2% to 0.3% | 0.1% |
Bank of America expects 75,000 and says a larger drop in participation could push unemployment to 4.1%. Pantheon looks for 100,000, citing small business and regional Fed surveys. Continuum Economics expects 50,000 and a slower workweek. Wells Fargo sits at 65,000. Canada publishes its own jobs data at the same minute, 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET).
How payrolls tend to move gold and the dollar
A number well above forecast usually lifts the dollar and Treasury yields, which tends to weigh on gold. A miss, or a rise in unemployment, tends to do the opposite. Our guide to how payrolls move forex and gold explains the first minutes after the release and why the revisions to earlier months can matter as much as the headline.
Gold climbed back above $4,000 this week after the midterm result weighed on the dollar, and it traded near $4,023 on our feed in early London trade on Wednesday. Check the session range on gold today before Friday, and work out the dollar value of your stop with the gold pip value calculator.
What our signals did on the last two payroll Fridays
On 4 September 2026 Forexuro posted a gold sell at 4470 with a stop at 4520, and the third target at 4420 was reached for a $50 move, or +500 pips in our record. The same day GBP/USD and EUR/USD sells both reached their third targets, for +74 and +72 pips. On 2 October a gold buy at 4184 reached the second target at 4219, a $35 move.
For a US trader following through gold futures, a $50 move is worth $500 on one Micro Gold contract (MGC, 10 ounces) and $5,000 on one full GC contract (100 ounces). Our page for US traders shows how to follow the three targets as partial closes of one position, and the FIFO guide covers the order of exits. Every closed gold trade, wins and losses alike, is on the gold signal results page.
Follow payrolls with Forexuro
The free Forexuro Telegram channel posts free signals every trading day, usually between about 05:00 and 15:00 UK time, each with an entry, a stop and three targets. VIP is £99 a month or £549 one time for more signals and live management. Trading carries risk, and past results are not a reliable guide to future results.
Official sources
Primary reference pages from regulators, central banks and official bodies on the topics in this article.
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation release schedule
- BLS Current Employment Statistics, payrolls and earnings data
Frequently asked questions
What time is the US jobs report on 6 November 2026?
13:30 UK time, which is 8:30am ET. The gap is five hours because both the UK and the US are on winter time.
How many jobs are expected in October?
The consensus in the Wells Fargo table was 60,000, with bank forecasts from 50,000 to 100,000.
What was the September payrolls number?
Payrolls rose by 29,000 in September 2026 and the unemployment rate was 4.2%.
When is the next jobs report after this one?
Friday 4 December 2026 at 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET), with November data.
Keep reading
Nonfarm payrolls · Gold signal results · Gold today · Economic calendar