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Trading expectancy calculator

Find out what your method earns or loses per trade on average. Enter a win rate and average win and loss in R, or paste a list of your own trade results.

Last updated: · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy

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The formula

Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss) − costs, all in R, where 1R is the amount risked on a trade. A result of +0.20R means that, over the sample, each trade added a fifth of the risk on average. The calculator also shows the break even win rate for your payoff and the profit factor, gross wins divided by gross losses.

Using your own results

Paste results such as 2, −1, −1, 1.5, 0 into the box and the calculator works out the win rate, average win and loss, profit factor and expectancy directly. Breakeven trades count as flat. A sample of at least 50 to 100 trades gives a more meaningful figure than a handful.

Worked example

45% winners averaging 1.8R and 55% losers at 1R with 0.05R costs: 0.45 × 1.8 − 0.55 × 1 − 0.05 = +0.21R. At £50 per R that is about £10.50 per trade on average. Break even needs a win rate of (1 + 0.05) ÷ (1.8 + 1) = 37.5%.

Expectancy and signals

You can apply the same maths to any provider that publishes every trade. Forexuro shows each closed trade on its trade history page with the scoring rules on the verify page. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results.

How to calculate trading expectancy

  1. Record each closed trade as a multiple of the amount risked (R).
  2. Work out the win rate and the average win and average loss in R.
  3. Multiply the win rate by the average win and subtract the loss rate times the average loss.
  4. Subtract average costs per trade to get net expectancy.

Using trading signals? Each Forexuro signal gives an entry, stop and targets, so you can plug them straight into this calculator. See the forex signals, the gold signals and the daily notes on the free Telegram channel.

Frequently asked questions

What is a good expectancy?

Any positive value after costs across a large sample. Pair it with a drawdown you can live with.

Is a high win rate enough?

No. Small wins and large losses can produce a negative expectancy even at a 70% win rate.

What is profit factor?

Gross wins divided by gross losses. Above 1 means the sample made money before costs not already included.

How many trades do I need?

More is better. Fewer than 30 trades says very little.

Calculators are for education and planning. They do not account for your broker's spread, commission, swap or contract terms. Trading forex and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money. Read our risk disclosure.