FX news today starts with a clear midterm result: Democrats won both chambers of Congress, the dollar fell to a one month low and gold climbed back above $4,000. Treasury yields dropped, stock futures fell and the safe haven yen and Swiss franc gained in Asian trade.
This note covers what the result changed overnight, where gold and the main pairs stand in early London trade, the euro area inflation flash at 10:00 UK time, and the UK times (ET in brackets) for the rest of the week. The free Forexuro Telegram channel posts gold and forex levels on trading days.
Free on Telegram. Gold and dollar levels after the midterm result, euro inflation and the BoE, with entry, stop and three targets.
What the midterm result changed overnight
Democrats captured majorities in both the Senate and the House on Tuesday and had flipped six Republican Senate seats, Reuters reported. Before the vote, prediction markets had leaned toward a Democratic House but put the chance of Democratic control of the Senate at around 70 percent, so the sweep was larger than many investors expected.
The dollar index fell 0.6% to a one month low of 101.27, and the 10 year Treasury yield dropped nearly 5 basis points to 4.915%, according to Reuters. The euro gained 0.6% to $1.1258, sterling rose 0.3% to $1.3458 and the yen strengthened about 0.8% to 157.92 per dollar. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.6% and Nasdaq futures fell more than 2% before trimming the loss to 0.8%, while the Nikkei fell 3% to a five month low. On our price feed EUR/USD traded near 1.1226 in early London trade, so check EUR/USD today and gold today for the latest levels.
Gold back above $4,000
Spot gold climbed 2.2% to $4,016.01 an ounce by 06:19 UK time, Reuters reported, and traded near $4,020 in early London trade on our price feed, up from Tuesday's close near $3,929. Silver gained 3.8% to $51.67. A weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields supported the metal, while CME FedWatch still showed a 79% chance of a Fed rate rise in December, a factor that can cap gains for a metal that pays no interest.
Our gold desk traded last week's slide below $4,000: on 27, 28 and 29 October Forexuro gold sells each reached the third target for +500 pips, and on 30 October a sell from $3,975 reached the third target at $3,935 for +400 pips. Every closed gold trade is listed on the XAU/USD signal results page. Our guide on what moves the gold price explains why yields and the dollar matter so much for the metal, and the gold pip value calculator turns a $50 stop into lots before you trade a move this size.
Euro area inflation at 10:00 UK time
Eurostat's flash estimate put euro area inflation at 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August, with energy prices up 18.8% on the year. For October, Continuum Economics expects about 4% and puts the market consensus at 3.9%, while core inflation is forecast near 2.5%. Italy's preliminary October figure jumped to 5.4% last week, which points the same way.
A print at or above 4% would support talk of an ECB rate rise in December and could add to the euro's gains after the dollar's overnight fall. Our inflation data guide explains how traders read headline and core figures.
FX news today: the rest of the week in UK time and ET
| Event | UK time | ET |
|---|---|---|
| Euro area inflation flash, October | Wed 4 Nov, 10:00 | 5:00am |
| US ISM services index, October | Wed 4 Nov, 15:00 | 10:00am |
| Bank of England decision and Monetary Policy Report | Thu 5 Nov, 12:00 | 7:00am |
| US non farm payrolls, October | Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 | 8:30am |
Economists polled by Reuters expect the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate to 4.0% from 3.75% on Thursday, which would be its first rise since August 2023. For Friday, the Investing.com note put the payrolls consensus near 65,000 jobs after 29,000 in September, with unemployment at 4.2%. The economic calendar keeps every time in one place, and the non farm payrolls page has the history.
How Forexuro covers the week
The free Forexuro Telegram channel posts free signals every trading day, usually between about 05:00 and 15:00 UK time, each with an entry, a stop and three targets. VIP is £99 a month or £549 one time for more signals and live management. Trading carries risk, and past results are not a reliable guide to future results.
Official sources
Official pages for the decisions, data and schedules behind this report.
- Eurostat flash estimate for September 2026, euro area inflation
- Bank of England MPC dates, decision timetable
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics release schedule, employment report dates
Frequently asked questions
What happened in the US midterm elections on 3 November 2026?
Democrats won majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, Reuters reported, and the dollar index fell to a one month low of 101.27 on Wednesday.
Where is gold after the midterm result?
Spot gold climbed 2.2% to $4,016.01 by 06:19 UK time on Wednesday 4 November and traded near $4,020 in early London trade.
What time is euro area inflation released on 4 November 2026?
Eurostat publishes the October flash estimate at 10:00 UK time, which is 5:00am ET.
Sources
- Reuters via Investing.com: Gold jumps over 2% on softer dollar after Democratic midterm wins
- Reuters via Yahoo Finance: Dollar slides to one month low
- Reuters via MarketScreener: Stocks wilt, dollar slides
- FXStreet: Gold surges past $4,000 as US election, yields hit USD
- Investing.com: US elections, oil and rates
- Continuum Economics: EZ CPI preview
- Reuters via Investing.com: Bank of England poised to raise rates
- Data for the charts: XAU/USD hourly spot prices as stored on Forexuro; euro area HICP annual rates from the Eurostat flash release of 2 October 2026.
Keep reading
Economic calendar · Gold today · Central banks table · XAU/USD signal results