Tuesday 3 November packs a political open and a central bank decision into the same session. Americans vote in the midterm elections while the Reserve Bank of Australia publishes its rate decision, statement and quarterly forecasts at 03:30 UK time (10:30pm ET on Monday evening).
This note sets the UK times, the New York times in brackets, and what dollar, Aussie and gold traders usually watch on a midterms day that also carries an overnight RBA. Our free Telegram channel will post through the week.
Free on Telegram. Follow the Aussie through the RBA and the dollar through the midterms on the Forexuro channel.
The Tuesday timetable in UK time and ET
After the US clock change on Sunday, New York is 5 hours behind London again. The Tuesday stack looks like this:
| Event | UK time | ET |
|---|---|---|
| RBA decision, statement and forecasts | Tue 3 Nov, 03:30 | Mon 2 Nov, 10:30pm |
| RBA governor media conference | Tue 3 Nov, 04:30 | Mon 2 Nov, 11:30pm |
| US midterm voting (polls close by state) | Tue evening into night | Tue afternoon into evening |
The RBA lands in the Asian session, before London opens. The RBA rate decision page keeps the history, and market sessions shows which centres are open at 03:30 UK time.
What midterms usually mean for the dollar
FX rarely prices every early state call. Traders watch whether one party controls the House, the Senate, or both, because that shapes the odds of tax and spending bills in 2027. A split Congress is often read as fewer large fiscal surprises; a clean sweep can move the dollar if markets rewrite the growth and deficit path.
Liquidity can thin into the US evening as equity desks wait on results. Spreads on EUR/USD and GBP/USD can widen even if the headline dollar index barely moves. For Monday and Tuesday levels use EUR/USD today and GBP/USD today. US based readers can follow the same UK times with ET on forex signals for the US.
The Aussie into the RBA
AUD/USD rose about 1.2% in October on Reuters figures carried by CNBC, after Australian inflation printed at 4.3% over the year in September. In early London trade on Monday AUD/USD was near 0.7021, slightly below Friday's close near 0.7033. The cash rate stands at 4.60% after four rises in 2026. A further rise is widely discussed into Tuesday; traders will judge the Statement on Monetary Policy and the governor as much as the decision itself.
Speculative positioning in Australian dollar futures was still deeply short in the late October CFTC report on our measure, which can amplify a squeeze if the board sounds firm. Track the pair on AUD/USD and AUD/USD forecast. Our guide to central bank rate decisions explains why the gap between pricing and the message drives the first move.
Monday in London: where prices stand before the vote
The first London session of the month opened calm. Silver led the metals, up about 2.5% to near $50.3, and gold followed with a gain of about 0.8% to near $3,907. EUR/USD firmed about 0.2% to near 1.1188, GBP/USD held near 1.3403 and USD/JPY edged up to near 157.83 as the yen softened after Friday's Bank of Japan hold. Our dollar index measure slipped to about 101.8.
None of those moves is large, and that fits a session waiting for Tuesday. The Bank of England follows on Thursday at 12:00 UK time (see the Bank of England rate decision page and the central banks table), and payrolls close the week on Friday at 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET).
Gold on a politics and payrolls week
Gold often trades the dollar first and US data second. A midterms result that markets read as fewer fiscal surprises can firm the dollar and weigh on gold. A result that markets read as larger deficits can do the opposite. Payrolls on Friday then reset the rate path story for December.
Friday's close left spot gold near $3,877, under $4,000, after the Bank of Japan hold. In early London trade on Monday gold was near $3,907, up about 0.8% on the day, and silver rose about 2.5% to near $50.3. Use gold today and gold price today for the live markers, and remember US times are now 5 hours behind the UK again.
Aussie crosses on Monday morning
The Australian dollar was a little softer against the US dollar and the euro in early London trade on Monday. EUR/AUD rose about 0.4% to near 1.594, GBP/AUD was near 1.9096 and AUD/JPY held near 110.77. NZD/USD slipped about 0.25% to near 0.5618, so the two antipodean currencies moved together rather than the Aussie trading alone on RBA hopes.
Crosses can tell you whether a move after 03:30 UK time is about Australia or about the US dollar. If AUD/USD jumps while EUR/AUD falls by a similar amount, the decision is driving it; if every dollar pair moves together, it is the midterms or US data. Euro area flash inflation on Wednesday at 10:00 UK time is the next test for the euro side of those crosses.
How to sit the overnight RBA as a London trader
Many London traders will be asleep at 03:30 UK time. Practical options are: flat through the release, a working order with a wide enough stop planned before bed, or waiting for the 05:00 UK signal window when Forexuro posts with the decision already known. Blindly holding a tight stop through a central bank print is how weekend style gaps show up on a Tuesday morning.
If you do hold, size as if the first spike can run tens of pips in AUD/USD. Our AUD/USD pip value calculator and lot size guide help translate that into lots before you leave the order.
How Forexuro will cover Tuesday
The free Forexuro Telegram channel posts free signals on trading days between about 05:00 and 15:00 UK time. Tuesday's first London signals will already include the RBA result. Before you join, check our closed trades on the XAU/USD signal results and AUD/USD signal results pages. VIP is £99 a month or £549 one time for more signals and live management. Trading carries risk, and past results are not a reliable guide to future results.
Official sources
Official pages for the decisions, data and schedules behind this report.
- Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy, decision and Statement on Monetary Policy
- Bank of England monetary policy, decision timetable
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, payrolls schedule
Frequently asked questions
When is the RBA decision on midterms day?
Tuesday 3 November at 03:30 UK time, which is 10:30pm ET on Monday 2 November.
Do midterms always move the dollar?
Not tick by tick. Markets usually wait for a clear House and Senate picture before repricing fiscal odds.
Where was gold on Monday morning?
Near $3,907 an ounce in early London trade, up about 0.8% from Friday's close near $3,877.
How do crosses help read the RBA move?
If AUD/USD and EUR/AUD move in opposite directions by a similar amount, the decision is driving the Aussie; if all dollar pairs move together, the US side is.
Sources
- CNBC market reports
- Australian Bureau of Statistics inflation releases
- Data for the charts: event times from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of England, Eurostat and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics; AUD/USD context from ECB reference rates and CFTC positioning summarised on Forexuro pair pages.
Keep reading
RBA rate decision · Central bank rate decisions · Central banks table · AUD/USD pair page