AUD/USD forecast this week
The newest weekly AUD/USD outlook in one place, refreshed when each new edition is published, with links to every past week. Analysis only, not a recommendation.
Last updated: · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy
Published · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team
Analysis, not advice. This outlook describes scenarios based on published news and scheduled events. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it does not guarantee any price, and markets can move in ways no outlook anticipates. Levels quoted from third parties are their analysis, not Forexuro trade signals. Trading carries a high risk of loss; read the risk disclosure.
This page always carries the most recent Forexuro weekly outlook for AUD/USD. Each edition sets out where the market closed the previous week, the scheduled events that could move it, an upside and a downside scenario and the price levels other analysts are watching, with every source listed. When a new edition is published, the section below is replaced and the previous week moves into the archive, so you can bookmark this address and come back each weekend.
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Free, opens TelegramLatest outlook: week of 26 October 2026
This section is copied from the full AUD/USD edition for the week of 26 October 2026, last updated . Levels and figures are as of that date and will have changed.
Summary
- AUD/USD was the strongest pair in this set last week, rising 1.28% to 0.7038 after a range of 0.6962 to 0.7041 (Bullquill, Yahoo Finance data).
- Key events: Australia CPI (September and Q3); FOMC decision; US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation.
- Upside scenario and downside scenario below; neither is a prediction.
Where it stands
AUD/USD was the strongest pair in this set last week, rising 1.28% to 0.7038 after a range of 0.6962 to 0.7041 (Bullquill, Yahoo Finance data). Bullquill, citing Trading Economics, reported that market odds of an RBA hike in November rose to 64%. Reuters, via Business Recorder, had the Aussie about 1% higher on the week on Friday, with resistance at 0.7040. The RBA cash rate is 4.60% after the hike that took effect on 30 September.
Events this week
| When (GMT) | Event |
|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct | UK clocks went back one hour; US clocks change on 1 November, so London and New York are four hours apart this week |
| Mon 26 Oct | German Ifo business climate (October); China's Fifth Plenum runs from 26 to 29 October |
| Tue 27 Oct | FOMC meeting begins; US durable goods orders (September) and consumer confidence (October) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 00:30 GMT | Australia CPI (September and Q3) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 01:00 GMT | RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision |
| Wed 28 Oct, about 12:30 GMT (expected) | UK Autumn Budget and OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook |
| Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 GMT | Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report |
| Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT | FOMC decision; press conference 18:30 GMT |
| Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 GMT | US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation |
| Thu 29 Oct, 13:15 GMT | ECB decision; press conference 13:45 GMT |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo morning | Tokyo CPI (October) |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo midday (no fixed time) | Bank of Japan decision and Outlook Report |
| Fri 30 Oct | German and euro area Q3 GDP; German flash CPI (October) |
| Tue 3 Nov and Thu 5 Nov | Next week: RBA decision and US midterm elections (3 November); Bank of England decision (5 November) |
UK time equals GMT from 25 October. Times are scheduled times from the issuing institutions and market calendars; check before trading. Highlighted rows matter most for AUD/USD. Background: economic events explained and central bank rates.
What matters this week
Australia's September and Q3 CPI on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT is the main domestic release before the RBA meets on 3 November. Newsquawk said consensus expects trimmed mean inflation of 1% on the quarter, above the RBA's own 0.8% forecast. The RBNZ decision 30 minutes later can move the Aussie through AUD/NZD, and the FOMC follows late on Wednesday.
Scenarios
Upside case. A CPI print above consensus that strengthens the case for a November hike, combined with a softer dollar, could carry AUD/USD through 0.7045; Reuters noted that a break there would open the way to 0.7140.
Downside case. Softer inflation, a hawkish Fed or another sell-off in equities could push the pair back to 0.6962, last week's low, and then the 0.6895 support cited by Reuters.
Either can happen, and the first reaction to a release often reverses. Read the AUD/USD guide for the longer term drivers.
Levels in focus
- Resistance: 0.7040 to 0.7045, then 0.7140 (Reuters via Business Recorder)
- Reference: 0.7038 close on 23 October (Bullquill)
- Support: 0.6962, last week's low (Bullquill); 0.6895 (Reuters via Business Recorder)
Sources for this edition
- Bullquill: Dollar Index This Week, weekly forex brief, 23 October 2026 (Yahoo Finance data) (link)
- Business Recorder (Reuters): Australian and New Zealand dollars, 23 October 2026 (link)
- Business Recorder (Reuters): New Zealand CPI and Antipodean currencies, October 2026 (link)
- Newsquawk: Week in Focus, 26 to 30 October 2026, published 23 October 2026 (link)
- RBA: cash rate target, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC target range history, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
How to read this forecast
A weekly outlook is a map of what could happen, not a call on what will. The scenarios describe conditions under which the price might move one way or the other, and the levels come from published third party analysis, not from Forexuro trade signals. Markets often react first in one direction and then reverse, especially around central bank decisions, and the first move after a release is not a reliable guide to the rest of the week.
If you want trade ideas with a defined entry, stop loss and targets, those are posted as signals: see the forex signals page. New members currently get free signals on joining the free Telegram channel, where the team also posts updates during the week.
What usually moves AUD/USD
AUD/USD is a commodity and risk sensitive pair. Reserve Bank of Australia expectations, Australian inflation and jobs data, iron ore prices and Chinese demand all feed into it, along with the US dollar side. It tends to rise when global equities are strong and fall in risk-off periods, and it often moves with NZD/USD.
Read the AUD/USD pair guide for the longer term background, and the guides to the releases that matter most: RBA rate decision, FOMC rate decision, US CPI inflation.
Past weekly editions
Every dated edition stays online with its original sources, so you can compare what was expected with what happened.
Forecasts for other markets: EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · USD/CHF · USD/CAD · NZD/USD · EUR/GBP · XAU/USD. All outlooks: weekly forex and gold outlooks.
Frequently asked questions
When is the AUD/USD forecast updated?
A new AUD/USD edition is normally published before each trading week, and this page is refreshed with it. The date of the edition shown is at the top of the latest outlook section.
Is this AUD/USD forecast a trading signal?
No. It is analysis for education, describing scenarios and levels from published sources. Forexuro signals, with entry, stop loss and targets, are posted separately.
Where can I find past AUD/USD forecasts?
Every past weekly edition is listed in the archive on this page and stays online at its own dated address.
What time zone are the event times in?
Event times in the weekly outlooks are given in GMT, which is UK time in winter. In British Summer Time, add one hour for UK time.
Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.