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FOMC rate decision explained

What FOMC rate decision is, when it comes out, which pairs and gold it tends to move and how to manage risk around it.

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What it is

The FOMC sets the target range for the federal funds rate, the benchmark for US short term interest rates. Each decision comes with a policy statement and a press conference by the Fed Chair. Four times a year the Fed also publishes the Summary of Economic Projections, including the dot plot of officials' rate expectations. It is published by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve.

What to watch in the release

  • Rate decision. The target range for the federal funds rate.
  • Statement. Wording changes are scrutinised for hints about the next move.
  • Press conference. The Chair's answers can move markets more than the decision.
  • Projections and dot plot. Published quarterly with the March, June, September and December meetings.

When it is released

There are eight scheduled meetings a year. The statement is released at 2:00pm New York time and the press conference begins at 2:30pm. Minutes follow three weeks later. Use the market sessions clock to convert times, and read market sessions and the economic calendar.

Why it moves markets

US rates affect the dollar, global bond yields and the cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold. Markets usually price the decision in advance, so the reaction depends on surprises in the decision, the statement and the guidance. As of 23 October 2026 the target range is 3.75% to 4.00% and the next meeting concludes on 28 October; see our central banks page for sources. See the Federal Reserve on our central banks page.

Which pairs and gold it moves

  • XAU/USD: Gold is very sensitive to the rate path; hawkish surprises tend to weigh on it.
  • USD/JPY: USD/JPY follows the change in US yields.
  • EUR/USD: EUR/USD reacts through the dollar.
  • AUD/USD: Risk sensitive currencies react to the effect on stocks and risk appetite.

How much any market moves depends on the size of the surprise and on what else is happening; there is no fixed reaction. Gold and the dollar pairs often react most when a release changes expectations for interest rates.

FOMC rate decision in context

The Federal Open Market Committee holds eight scheduled meetings a year and sets a target range for the federal funds rate rather than a single rate. The statement is released at 2:00pm New York time and the Chair's press conference starts half an hour later, so the market often makes two distinct moves: one on the statement and another on the tone of the press conference.

At four meetings a year, in March, June, September and December, the Fed also publishes its Summary of Economic Projections, including the dot plot that shows where each official expects rates to go. Those meetings tend to produce larger moves because they reveal how the committee as a whole sees the path ahead. Minutes of each meeting follow three weeks later and can move markets again.

Because the decision lands in the US afternoon, after the London close, liquidity is thinner than it is for morning data, and the reaction can continue into the Asian session. The dollar, US yields, USD/JPY and gold usually react most. When a decision is fully expected, the forward guidance matters far more than the rate itself.

How to trade around it carefully

  1. Check the exact release time on an economic calendar and convert it to your time zone. Clocks change in the UK on 25 October 2026 and in the US on 1 November 2026, so the gap between London and New York is temporarily one hour.
  2. Know the consensus forecast and the previous figure, including any revisions. Markets react to the surprise, not the number itself.
  3. Decide in advance whether you will be flat, hold with reduced size or wait for the first move to settle. Many traders avoid opening new positions in the minutes before a top tier release.
  4. Expect wider spreads and possible slippage. Stops can be filled worse than their level when liquidity thins; see slippage.
  5. Size down. If you hold through the release, a smaller position from the position size calculator keeps the money at risk within your plan.
  6. Let the dust settle. The first spike often reverses as the details are digested; waiting for a retest of a level can be calmer than chasing the first candle.

Forexuro signal alerts include a stop loss on every trade, and the team flags major releases on the free Telegram channel before they land. For this release the most relevant page is the gold signals page.

More events: Non-farm payrolls (NFP) · US CPI inflation · ECB rate decision · Bank of England rate decision · Bank of Japan rate decision · US GDP · US PCE inflation · PMI surveys · Retail sales · Unemployment rate · UK CPI inflation · RBA rate decision · RBNZ rate decision · Bank of Canada rate decision · SNB rate decision

Frequently asked questions

How often does the FOMC meet?

Eight scheduled meetings a year, plus unscheduled meetings if needed.

What time is the FOMC decision?

2:00pm New York time, with the press conference at 2:30pm.

What is the dot plot?

A chart of each official's projection for the federal funds rate, published four times a year.

Why can the market move the opposite way to the decision?

Because the decision is often expected; guidance about future meetings can matter more.

Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.