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PMI surveys explained

What PMI surveys is, when it comes out, which pairs and gold it tends to move and how to manage risk around it.

Last updated: · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy

Published · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team

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What it is

Purchasing managers' indices are monthly surveys of companies about output, new orders, employment, prices and more. A reading above 50 points to expansion compared with the previous month, and below 50 to contraction. Flash PMIs give an early estimate before the month ends. It is published by S&P Global and, in the US, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

What to watch in the release

  • Manufacturing PMI. Factory activity.
  • Services PMI. Most of the economy in the US, UK and euro area.
  • Composite PMI. Combines the two.
  • Prices paid and charged. Early signals of inflation pressure.

When it is released

S&P Global flash PMIs for the euro area, UK, US, Japan and Australia are usually released in the last full week of the month, with final readings early the following month. The ISM manufacturing survey comes on the first business day of the month and services on the third, at 10:00am New York time. Use the market sessions clock to convert times, and read market sessions and the economic calendar.

Why it moves markets

PMIs are among the earliest monthly signals on growth and inflation, so they can shift rate expectations, especially in the euro area and UK where official data come later. See the central banks page for current policy rates.

Which pairs and gold it moves

  • EUR/USD: Euro area flash PMIs can move the euro in the European morning.
  • EUR/GBP: Euro area versus UK surveys.
  • GBP/USD: UK PMIs and US ISM.
  • XAU/USD: Gold reacts mainly to the US ISM through yields and the dollar.

How much any market moves depends on the size of the surprise and on what else is happening; there is no fixed reaction. Gold and the dollar pairs often react most when a release changes expectations for interest rates.

PMI surveys in context

Purchasing managers' indices are monthly surveys of businesses that ask whether output, new orders, employment and prices are higher, lower or unchanged from the month before. A reading above 50 signals expansion and below 50 contraction, which makes PMIs easy to compare across countries. Because they are published within days of the month they cover, they are among the earliest signals of a turn in growth, well before official GDP figures.

S&P Global publishes flash PMIs for the eurozone, Germany, France, the UK, the US, Japan and Australia near the end of each month, followed by final readings a few days into the next month. In the United States the Institute for Supply Management publishes its own manufacturing and services surveys, and the ISM figures often draw a bigger market reaction than the S&P Global US PMI. China's official PMIs can move AUD/USD and NZD/USD.

The eurozone flash PMIs land during the European morning, so they matter most for EUR/USD and EUR/GBP. Services surveys usually carry more weight than manufacturing for large economies, and traders also watch the price components for signs of inflation pressure.

How to trade around it carefully

  1. Check the exact release time on an economic calendar and convert it to your time zone. Clocks change in the UK on 25 October 2026 and in the US on 1 November 2026, so the gap between London and New York is temporarily one hour.
  2. Know the consensus forecast and the previous figure, including any revisions. Markets react to the surprise, not the number itself.
  3. Decide in advance whether you will be flat, hold with reduced size or wait for the first move to settle. Many traders avoid opening new positions in the minutes before a top tier release.
  4. Expect wider spreads and possible slippage. Stops can be filled worse than their level when liquidity thins; see slippage.
  5. Size down. If you hold through the release, a smaller position from the position size calculator keeps the money at risk within your plan.
  6. Let the dust settle. The first spike often reverses as the details are digested; waiting for a retest of a level can be calmer than chasing the first candle.

Forexuro signal alerts include a stop loss on every trade, and the team flags major releases on the free Telegram channel before they land. For this release the most relevant page is the EUR/USD signals page.

More events: Non-farm payrolls (NFP) · US CPI inflation · FOMC rate decision · ECB rate decision · Bank of England rate decision · Bank of Japan rate decision · US GDP · US PCE inflation · Retail sales · Unemployment rate · UK CPI inflation · RBA rate decision · RBNZ rate decision · Bank of Canada rate decision · SNB rate decision

Frequently asked questions

What does a PMI of 50 mean?

No change on the previous month. Above 50 is expansion, below 50 contraction.

What is a flash PMI?

An early estimate based on most of the month's responses.

Which PMI moves markets most?

Euro area and UK flash PMIs and the US ISM surveys.

Are PMIs official data?

No. They are private surveys, but they are timely and closely watched.

Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.