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Retail sales explained

What Retail sales is, when it comes out, which pairs and gold it tends to move and how to manage risk around it.

Last updated: · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy

Published · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team

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What it is

Retail sales measure the value of sales at retailers and food services over the month. In the US, markets look at the headline change, the figure excluding autos and the control group, which feeds into GDP estimates. The UK ONS publishes its own monthly retail sales volumes. It is published by the US Census Bureau, and in the UK the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

What to watch in the release

  • Headline. Total sales change on the month.
  • Excluding autos. Removes volatile car sales.
  • Control group. Excludes autos, fuel, building materials and food services; used in GDP.

When it is released

US retail sales are usually released around the middle of the month at 8:30am New York time; UK retail sales are released at 7:00am UK time, typically later in the month. Use the market sessions clock to convert times, and read market sessions and the economic calendar.

Why it moves markets

Consumer spending is the largest part of the US and UK economies. Strong spending can support expectations of higher rates and the currency; weak spending the opposite. See the Federal Reserve on our central banks page.

Which pairs and gold it moves

  • EUR/USD: Through the dollar after US releases.
  • GBP/USD: Both on UK releases and on US data.
  • XAU/USD: Through yields and the dollar.

How much any market moves depends on the size of the surprise and on what else is happening; there is no fixed reaction. Gold and the dollar pairs often react most when a release changes expectations for interest rates.

Retail sales in context

Retail sales measure how much households spend in shops and online, and consumer spending makes up roughly two thirds of the US economy, so the figure is an important early read on growth. The US report from the Census Bureau is published around the middle of the month at 8:30am New York time. It is measured in dollars and not adjusted for inflation, so a strong headline can partly reflect higher prices rather than more goods being bought.

Traders often focus on the control group, which excludes autos, petrol, building materials and food services, because it feeds directly into the government's estimate of consumer spending in GDP. Revisions to the previous month can be large and can change the picture.

The UK release from the Office for National Statistics, published at 7:00am UK time, reports sales volumes, so it is already adjusted for price changes, and it can be affected by weather, holidays and the timing of big promotional events. For GBP/USD and EUR/GBP the UK figure matters most when the Bank of England is close to a decision. In the US, a surprise in spending usually shows up first in Treasury yields and the dollar.

How to trade around it carefully

  1. Check the exact release time on an economic calendar and convert it to your time zone. Clocks change in the UK on 25 October 2026 and in the US on 1 November 2026, so the gap between London and New York is temporarily one hour.
  2. Know the consensus forecast and the previous figure, including any revisions. Markets react to the surprise, not the number itself.
  3. Decide in advance whether you will be flat, hold with reduced size or wait for the first move to settle. Many traders avoid opening new positions in the minutes before a top tier release.
  4. Expect wider spreads and possible slippage. Stops can be filled worse than their level when liquidity thins; see slippage.
  5. Size down. If you hold through the release, a smaller position from the position size calculator keeps the money at risk within your plan.
  6. Let the dust settle. The first spike often reverses as the details are digested; waiting for a retest of a level can be calmer than chasing the first candle.

Forexuro signal alerts include a stop loss on every trade, and the team flags major releases on the free Telegram channel before they land. For this release the most relevant page is the GBP/USD signals page.

More events: Non-farm payrolls (NFP) · US CPI inflation · FOMC rate decision · ECB rate decision · Bank of England rate decision · Bank of Japan rate decision · US GDP · US PCE inflation · PMI surveys · Unemployment rate · UK CPI inflation · RBA rate decision · RBNZ rate decision · Bank of Canada rate decision · SNB rate decision

Frequently asked questions

What is the control group?

US retail sales excluding autos, fuel, building materials and food services, used in GDP calculations.

Are retail sales adjusted for inflation?

US figures are nominal; UK headline volumes are adjusted for prices.

When are US retail sales released?

Usually mid-month at 8:30am New York time.

Which pairs move?

Dollar pairs on US data, the pound on UK data.

Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.