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US CPI inflation explained

What US CPI inflation is, when it comes out, which pairs and gold it tends to move and how to manage risk around it.

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Published · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team

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What it is

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by US urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. Markets watch the month on month and year on year rates for both headline CPI and core CPI, which excludes food and energy. It is published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

What to watch in the release

  • Headline CPI. All items, including volatile food and energy.
  • Core CPI. Excludes food and energy; a guide to underlying inflation.
  • Shelter and services. Large components that often drive the core trend.

When it is released

CPI is published monthly, usually around the middle of the month, at 8:30am New York time, covering the previous month. Use the market sessions clock to convert times, and read market sessions and the economic calendar.

Why it moves markets

Inflation is the Fed's main concern when it is above target. A hotter than expected CPI can raise the chances of rate hikes or delay cuts, supporting the dollar and Treasury yields; a softer reading can do the opposite. In October 2026 US headline CPI was reported at 3.7% with core at 2.6%, and markets were pricing a strong chance of a Fed hike in December. See the Federal Reserve on our central banks page.

Which pairs and gold it moves

  • XAU/USD: Gold often falls on hot inflation surprises as real yields rise, though persistent inflation can also support it as a hedge.
  • USD/JPY: USD/JPY tracks the move in US yields.
  • EUR/USD: EUR/USD typically moves opposite to the dollar's reaction.
  • GBP/USD: GBP/USD reacts through the dollar side.

How much any market moves depends on the size of the surprise and on what else is happening; there is no fixed reaction. Gold and the dollar pairs often react most when a release changes expectations for interest rates.

US CPI in context

US CPI became one of the most closely watched releases in the world after 2021, when inflation rose to its highest level in about four decades and the Federal Reserve responded with its fastest run of rate hikes since the early 1980s. Since then, a single surprise in the core figure has often been enough to reprice expectations for the next few Fed meetings. Traders also look below the headline at services excluding housing, sometimes called supercore, because it reflects wage driven price pressure that tends to persist.

The Fed's 2% target is defined in terms of PCE inflation, not CPI, and CPI has tended to run somewhat above PCE over time because the two indices use different weights and formulas. CPI still matters more on the day, because it is published first and feeds into forecasts for PCE.

The release lands at 8:30am New York time, which is the London afternoon, so liquidity is usually good, but spreads can still widen in the seconds around the number. USD/JPY often moves with two year Treasury yields on CPI days, while gold tends to react to what the figure implies for real yields.

How to trade around it carefully

  1. Check the exact release time on an economic calendar and convert it to your time zone. Clocks change in the UK on 25 October 2026 and in the US on 1 November 2026, so the gap between London and New York is temporarily one hour.
  2. Know the consensus forecast and the previous figure, including any revisions. Markets react to the surprise, not the number itself.
  3. Decide in advance whether you will be flat, hold with reduced size or wait for the first move to settle. Many traders avoid opening new positions in the minutes before a top tier release.
  4. Expect wider spreads and possible slippage. Stops can be filled worse than their level when liquidity thins; see slippage.
  5. Size down. If you hold through the release, a smaller position from the position size calculator keeps the money at risk within your plan.
  6. Let the dust settle. The first spike often reverses as the details are digested; waiting for a retest of a level can be calmer than chasing the first candle.

Forexuro signal alerts include a stop loss on every trade, and the team flags major releases on the free Telegram channel before they land. For this release the most relevant page is the gold signals page.

More events: Non-farm payrolls (NFP) · FOMC rate decision · ECB rate decision · Bank of England rate decision · Bank of Japan rate decision · US GDP · US PCE inflation · PMI surveys · Retail sales · Unemployment rate · UK CPI inflation · RBA rate decision · RBNZ rate decision · Bank of Canada rate decision · SNB rate decision

Frequently asked questions

What is the difference between CPI and core CPI?

Core CPI excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be volatile.

Is CPI the Fed's target measure?

The Fed's 2% target is defined using PCE inflation, but CPI comes out earlier and moves markets strongly.

When is US CPI released?

Monthly, usually mid-month, at 8:30am New York time.

Which markets move most on CPI?

The dollar pairs, US yields and gold.

Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.