USD/CAD forecast this week
The newest weekly USD/CAD outlook in one place, refreshed when each new edition is published, with links to every past week. Analysis only, not a recommendation.
Last updated: · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy
Published · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team
Analysis, not advice. This outlook describes scenarios based on published news and scheduled events. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it does not guarantee any price, and markets can move in ways no outlook anticipates. Levels quoted from third parties are their analysis, not Forexuro trade signals. Trading carries a high risk of loss; read the risk disclosure.
This page always carries the most recent Forexuro weekly outlook for USD/CAD. Each edition sets out where the market closed the previous week, the scheduled events that could move it, an upside and a downside scenario and the price levels other analysts are watching, with every source listed. When a new edition is published, the section below is replaced and the previous week moves into the archive, so you can bookmark this address and come back each weekend.
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Free, opens TelegramLatest outlook: week of 26 October 2026
This section is copied from the full USD/CAD edition for the week of 26 October 2026, last updated . Levels and figures are as of that date and will have changed.
Summary
- USD/CAD fell 0.95% on the week to 1.4002, after a range of 1.3964 to 1.4127 (Bullquill, Yahoo Finance data).
- Key events: Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report; FOMC decision; US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation.
- Upside scenario and downside scenario below; neither is a prediction.
Where it stands
USD/CAD fell 0.95% on the week to 1.4002, after a range of 1.3964 to 1.4127 (Bullquill, Yahoo Finance data). The Globe and Mail (Reuters) reported that the Canadian dollar reached a five-week high at 1.3969 on Friday and gained about 1% on the week, helped by August retail sales rising 1.2% and oil, with WTI at $103.27 (NordFX). FXStreet counted a seven-day losing streak for USD/CAD. Canada's September CPI was 3.1%, slightly below the 3.2% expected, while the core measures CPI-trim and CPI-median were 1.8% and 1.9% (Newsquawk, HDQ). The policy rate is 2.25%.
Events this week
| When (GMT) | Event |
|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct | UK clocks went back one hour; US clocks change on 1 November, so London and New York are four hours apart this week |
| Mon 26 Oct | German Ifo business climate (October); China's Fifth Plenum runs from 26 to 29 October |
| Tue 27 Oct | FOMC meeting begins; US durable goods orders (September) and consumer confidence (October) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 00:30 GMT | Australia CPI (September and Q3) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 01:00 GMT | RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision |
| Wed 28 Oct, about 12:30 GMT (expected) | UK Autumn Budget and OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook |
| Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 GMT | Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report |
| Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT | FOMC decision; press conference 18:30 GMT |
| Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 GMT | US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation |
| Thu 29 Oct, 13:15 GMT | ECB decision; press conference 13:45 GMT |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo morning | Tokyo CPI (October) |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo midday (no fixed time) | Bank of Japan decision and Outlook Report |
| Fri 30 Oct | German and euro area Q3 GDP; German flash CPI (October) |
| Tue 3 Nov and Thu 5 Nov | Next week: RBA decision and US midterm elections (3 November); Bank of England decision (5 November) |
UK time equals GMT from 25 October. Times are scheduled times from the issuing institutions and market calendars; check before trading. Highlighted rows matter most for USD/CAD. Background: economic events explained and central bank rates.
What matters this week
The Bank of Canada announces on Wednesday at 13:45 GMT with a new Monetary Policy Report, and the Fed follows at 18:00 GMT. In a Reuters poll, 19 of 34 economists expected a hike to 2.50%, and markets priced about an 80% chance (Globe and Mail). Not everyone agrees: TD Securities expects a hold in October and a hike in December (FXStreet). Bullquill noted that Governor Tiff Macklem expects to raise the inflation forecast significantly, so the new projections may matter as much as the decision. Oil prices and the US data on Thursday are the other drivers.
Scenarios
Upside case. A Bank of Canada hold, or a hike with cautious guidance, together with a hawkish Fed or lower oil, could lift USD/CAD back to the 1.4050 to 1.4080 resistance area cited by Interchange Financial, and then 1.4127, last week's high.
Downside case. A hike with hawkish guidance, a less hawkish Fed or further gains in oil could take the pair below 1.3964 towards 1.3950 and 1.3880 (Interchange Financial).
Either can happen, and the first reaction to a release often reverses. Read the USD/CAD guide for the longer term drivers.
Levels in focus
- Resistance: 1.4050 to 1.4080 (Interchange Financial); 1.4127, last week's high (Bullquill)
- Reference: 1.4002 close on 23 October (Bullquill)
- Support: 1.3964, last week's low (Bullquill); 1.3950 and 1.3880 (Interchange Financial)
Sources for this edition
- Bullquill: Dollar Index This Week, weekly forex brief, 23 October 2026 (Yahoo Finance data) (link)
- The Globe and Mail (Reuters): Canadian dollar market report, 23 October 2026
- Investing.com (Reuters poll): Bank of Canada decision preview, October 2026
- FXStreet: Canadian Dollar extends winning streak as Fed and BoC policy divergence comes into focus, 23 October 2026 (link)
- HDQ: Canada September CPI review, October 2026
- Interchange Financial: USD/CAD levels, October 2026
- NordFX: Forex and cryptocurrency forecast for 26 to 30 October 2026 (link)
- Newsquawk: Week in Focus, 26 to 30 October 2026, published 23 October 2026 (link)
- Bank of Canada: policy interest rate, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC target range history, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
How to read this forecast
A weekly outlook is a map of what could happen, not a call on what will. The scenarios describe conditions under which the price might move one way or the other, and the levels come from published third party analysis, not from Forexuro trade signals. Markets often react first in one direction and then reverse, especially around central bank decisions, and the first move after a release is not a reliable guide to the rest of the week.
If you want trade ideas with a defined entry, stop loss and targets, those are posted as signals: see the forex signals page. New members currently get free signals on joining the free Telegram channel, where the team also posts updates during the week.
What usually moves USD/CAD
USD/CAD tracks the gap between Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve expectations, the price of crude oil and the state of trade between Canada and the United States. Because the two economies are so closely linked, US data often moves the pair as much as Canadian data does. Canadian jobs figures are often released at the same time as US payrolls, which can make that Friday unusually volatile.
Read the USD/CAD pair guide for the longer term background, and the guides to the releases that matter most: Bank of Canada rate decision, FOMC rate decision, US CPI inflation.
Past weekly editions
Every dated edition stays online with its original sources, so you can compare what was expected with what happened.
Forecasts for other markets: EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · USD/CHF · AUD/USD · NZD/USD · EUR/GBP · XAU/USD. All outlooks: weekly forex and gold outlooks.
Frequently asked questions
When is the USD/CAD forecast updated?
A new USD/CAD edition is normally published before each trading week, and this page is refreshed with it. The date of the edition shown is at the top of the latest outlook section.
Is this USD/CAD forecast a trading signal?
No. It is analysis for education, describing scenarios and levels from published sources. Forexuro signals, with entry, stop loss and targets, are posted separately.
Where can I find past USD/CAD forecasts?
Every past weekly edition is listed in the archive on this page and stays online at its own dated address.
What time zone are the event times in?
Event times in the weekly outlooks are given in GMT, which is UK time in winter. In British Summer Time, add one hour for UK time.
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