Gold (XAU/USD) forecast this week
The newest weekly XAU/USD outlook in one place, refreshed when each new edition is published, with links to every past week. Analysis only, not a recommendation.
Last updated: · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy
Published · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team
Analysis, not advice. This outlook describes scenarios based on published news and scheduled events. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it does not guarantee any price, and markets can move in ways no outlook anticipates. Levels quoted from third parties are their analysis, not Forexuro trade signals. Trading carries a high risk of loss; read the risk disclosure.
This page always carries the most recent Forexuro weekly outlook for XAU/USD. Each edition sets out where the market closed the previous week, the scheduled events that could move it, an upside and a downside scenario and the price levels other analysts are watching, with every source listed. When a new edition is published, the section below is replaced and the previous week moves into the archive, so you can bookmark this address and come back each weekend.
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Free, opens TelegramLatest outlook: week of 26 October 2026
This section is copied from the full XAU/USD edition for the week of 26 October 2026, last updated . Levels and figures are as of that date and will have changed.
Summary
- Gold had its worst week since June.
- Key events: FOMC decision; US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation.
- Upside scenario and downside scenario below; neither is a prediction.
Where it stands
Gold had its worst week since June. Spot gold slipped below $4,000 on 23 October for the first time since mid-July and was at $3,998.49 late in the session, down about 4% on the week (CNBC). GoldPrice.com recorded a close of $3,995.81, and Comex futures settled at $3,991.10, down 4.05% on the week (Dow Jones Market Data via Morningstar). NordFX put the low at $3,975, a three-month low. Higher oil, with Brent at $116.93, revived inflation worries and kept a December Fed hike priced, which weighed on the metal.
Events this week
| When (GMT) | Event |
|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct | UK clocks went back one hour; US clocks change on 1 November, so London and New York are four hours apart this week |
| Mon 26 Oct | German Ifo business climate (October); China's Fifth Plenum runs from 26 to 29 October |
| Tue 27 Oct | FOMC meeting begins; US durable goods orders (September) and consumer confidence (October) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 00:30 GMT | Australia CPI (September and Q3) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 01:00 GMT | RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision |
| Wed 28 Oct, about 12:30 GMT (expected) | UK Autumn Budget and OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook |
| Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 GMT | Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report |
| Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT | FOMC decision; press conference 18:30 GMT |
| Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 GMT | US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation |
| Thu 29 Oct, 13:15 GMT | ECB decision; press conference 13:45 GMT |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo morning | Tokyo CPI (October) |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo midday (no fixed time) | Bank of Japan decision and Outlook Report |
| Fri 30 Oct | German and euro area Q3 GDP; German flash CPI (October) |
| Tue 3 Nov and Thu 5 Nov | Next week: RBA decision and US midterm elections (3 November); Bank of England decision (5 November) |
UK time equals GMT from 25 October. Times are scheduled times from the issuing institutions and market calendars; check before trading. Highlighted rows matter most for XAU/USD. Background: economic events explained and central bank rates.
What matters this week
The FOMC on Wednesday is the main event. A hold is expected, so the focus is on how clearly a December hike is signalled. US GDP and PCE inflation follow on Thursday. Oil and Middle East headlines cut both ways: they can bring safe haven buying, but recently their effect on inflation expectations and yields has dominated. NordFX noted a daily RSI near 33, with price below the 20-day average near $4,149.
Scenarios
Upside case. A softer PCE print, a Fed that plays down December, lower yields or safe haven buying could lift gold back to $4,030 and then $4,150, the resistance levels cited by NordFX.
Downside case. A hawkish Fed and firm inflation data could take gold through $3,975, last week's low, towards $3,900 (NordFX).
Either can happen, and the first reaction to a release often reverses. Read the XAU/USD guide for the longer term drivers.
Levels in focus
- Resistance: $4,030, then $4,150 (NordFX)
- Reference: $3,998.49 spot late on 23 October (CNBC); Comex settlement $3,991.10
- Support: $3,975, last week's low; $3,900 (NordFX)
Sources for this edition
- CNBC: Gold heads for steep weekly loss as oil prices fuel Fed rate concerns, 23 October 2026 (link)
- GoldPrice.com: gold price close, 23 October 2026
- Morningstar / Dow Jones Market Data: Comex gold settlement, 23 October 2026
- NordFX: Forex and cryptocurrency forecast for 26 to 30 October 2026 (link)
- Newsquawk: Week in Focus, 26 to 30 October 2026, published 23 October 2026 (link)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC target range history, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
How to read this forecast
A weekly outlook is a map of what could happen, not a call on what will. The scenarios describe conditions under which the price might move one way or the other, and the levels come from published third party analysis, not from Forexuro trade signals. Markets often react first in one direction and then reverse, especially around central bank decisions, and the first move after a release is not a reliable guide to the rest of the week.
If you want trade ideas with a defined entry, stop loss and targets, those are posted as signals: see the XAU/USD signals page. New members currently get free signals on joining the free Telegram channel, where the team also posts updates during the week.
What usually moves XAU/USD
Gold, quoted as XAU/USD, has no yield of its own, so it tends to react to real US interest rates and the dollar: higher real yields and a stronger dollar usually weigh on it, and the reverse supports it. It is also a safe haven in times of stress, and central bank buying has been an important source of demand. Gold moves in larger steps than currency pairs, so size positions with care; see the gold pip value calculator.
Read the XAU/USD pair guide for the longer term background, and the guides to the releases that matter most: FOMC rate decision, US CPI inflation, Non-farm payrolls (NFP).
Past weekly editions
Every dated edition stays online with its original sources, so you can compare what was expected with what happened.
Forecasts for other markets: EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · USD/CHF · AUD/USD · USD/CAD · NZD/USD · EUR/GBP. All outlooks: weekly forex and gold outlooks.
Frequently asked questions
When is the XAU/USD forecast updated?
A new XAU/USD edition is normally published before each trading week, and this page is refreshed with it. The date of the edition shown is at the top of the latest outlook section.
Is this XAU/USD forecast a trading signal?
No. It is analysis for education, describing scenarios and levels from published sources. Forexuro signals, with entry, stop loss and targets, are posted separately.
Where can I find past XAU/USD forecasts?
Every past weekly edition is listed in the archive on this page and stays online at its own dated address.
What time zone are the event times in?
Event times in the weekly outlooks are given in GMT, which is UK time in winter. In British Summer Time, add one hour for UK time.
Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.