EUR/USD forecast this week
The newest weekly EUR/USD outlook in one place, refreshed when each new edition is published, with links to every past week. Analysis only, not a recommendation.
Last updated: · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy
Published · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team
Analysis, not advice. This outlook describes scenarios based on published news and scheduled events. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it does not guarantee any price, and markets can move in ways no outlook anticipates. Levels quoted from third parties are their analysis, not Forexuro trade signals. Trading carries a high risk of loss; read the risk disclosure.
This page always carries the most recent Forexuro weekly outlook for EUR/USD. Each edition sets out where the market closed the previous week, the scheduled events that could move it, an upside and a downside scenario and the price levels other analysts are watching, with every source listed. When a new edition is published, the section below is replaced and the previous week moves into the archive, so you can bookmark this address and come back each weekend.
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Free, opens TelegramLatest outlook: week of 26 October 2026
This section is copied from the full EUR/USD edition for the week of 26 October 2026, last updated . Levels and figures are as of that date and will have changed.
Summary
- EUR/USD ended the week to 23 October at 1.1204, down 0.36%, after trading between 1.1187 and 1.1259 (Yahoo Finance data compiled by Bullquill; NordFX put the close at 1.1203).
- Key events: German Ifo business climate (October); FOMC decision; US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation; ECB decision; German and euro area Q3 GDP.
- Upside scenario and downside scenario below; neither is a prediction.
Where it stands
EUR/USD ended the week to 23 October at 1.1204, down 0.36%, after trading between 1.1187 and 1.1259 (Yahoo Finance data compiled by Bullquill; NordFX put the close at 1.1203). The euro's problem was France: the French 10-year yield climbed above 5%, its highest since 2002, and euro area flash PMIs disappointed, with the composite index falling to 51.9 from 53.1. After Friday's close Moody's affirmed France at Aa3 with a negative outlook, according to NordFX. The dollar index itself ended almost flat at 101.75, so most of the move came from the euro side.
Events this week
| When (GMT) | Event |
|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct | UK clocks went back one hour; US clocks change on 1 November, so London and New York are four hours apart this week |
| Mon 26 Oct | German Ifo business climate (October); China's Fifth Plenum runs from 26 to 29 October |
| Tue 27 Oct | FOMC meeting begins; US durable goods orders (September) and consumer confidence (October) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 00:30 GMT | Australia CPI (September and Q3) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 01:00 GMT | RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision |
| Wed 28 Oct, about 12:30 GMT (expected) | UK Autumn Budget and OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook |
| Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 GMT | Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report |
| Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT | FOMC decision; press conference 18:30 GMT |
| Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 GMT | US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation |
| Thu 29 Oct, 13:15 GMT | ECB decision; press conference 13:45 GMT |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo morning | Tokyo CPI (October) |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo midday (no fixed time) | Bank of Japan decision and Outlook Report |
| Fri 30 Oct | German and euro area Q3 GDP; German flash CPI (October) |
| Tue 3 Nov and Thu 5 Nov | Next week: RBA decision and US midterm elections (3 November); Bank of England decision (5 November) |
UK time equals GMT from 25 October. Times are scheduled times from the issuing institutions and market calendars; check before trading. Highlighted rows matter most for EUR/USD. Background: economic events explained and central bank rates.
What matters this week
Both central banks are expected to hold. Newsquawk cited a Reuters poll in which 94 of 100 economists expect the Fed to keep its range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, and it does not expect the ECB to move on Thursday either. What matters is December: CNBC reported market odds of 81% for a Fed hike and 66% for an ECB hike at their December meetings. US Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation are released 45 minutes before the ECB decision; Newsquawk put consensus for PCE at 3.6% year on year and core PCE at 3.1%. German and euro area GDP and German inflation close the week on Friday, and French bond yields remain the wild card for the euro.
Scenarios
Upside case. A Fed statement that keeps December open without committing to it, a softer PCE print or an ECB that sounds confident about a December hike despite France could lift EUR/USD back to 1.1260, the first resistance cited by NordFX, with 1.1355 above.
Downside case. Firm US inflation data, a Fed that leans clearly towards December or fresh selling in French bonds could push the pair back to 1.1113, the 2026 low set on 14 October, with the 200-week average near 1.1105 and 1.1000 below (NordFX).
Either can happen, and the first reaction to a release often reverses. Read the EUR/USD guide for the longer term drivers.
Levels in focus
- Resistance: 1.1260, then 1.1355 (NordFX)
- Reference: 1.1204 close on 23 October; week range 1.1187 to 1.1259 (Bullquill)
- Support: 1.1113, the 2026 low of 14 October; 200-week average near 1.1105; 1.1000 (NordFX)
Sources for this edition
- Bullquill: Dollar Index This Week, weekly forex brief, 23 October 2026 (Yahoo Finance data) (link)
- NordFX: Forex and cryptocurrency forecast for 26 to 30 October 2026 (link)
- Newsquawk: Week in Focus, 26 to 30 October 2026, published 23 October 2026 (link)
- CNBC: Euro sinks on French debt worries; yen gains on AI rout, 23 October 2026 (link)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC target range history, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
- ECB: key ECB interest rates, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
How to read this forecast
A weekly outlook is a map of what could happen, not a call on what will. The scenarios describe conditions under which the price might move one way or the other, and the levels come from published third party analysis, not from Forexuro trade signals. Markets often react first in one direction and then reverse, especially around central bank decisions, and the first move after a release is not a reliable guide to the rest of the week.
If you want trade ideas with a defined entry, stop loss and targets, those are posted as signals: see the EUR/USD signals page. New members currently get free signals on joining the free Telegram channel, where the team also posts updates during the week.
What usually moves EUR/USD
EUR/USD moves mainly on the gap between Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policy expectations, on euro area growth surveys and German data, and on energy prices, because the region imports much of its energy. Political risk in large member states, visible in their government bond yields, can weigh on the euro even when the ECB is steady. The pair usually trades most actively in the London morning and the London and New York overlap.
Read the EUR/USD pair guide for the longer term background, and the guides to the releases that matter most: FOMC rate decision, ECB rate decision, US CPI inflation.
Past weekly editions
Every dated edition stays online with its original sources, so you can compare what was expected with what happened.
Forecasts for other markets: GBP/USD · USD/JPY · USD/CHF · AUD/USD · USD/CAD · NZD/USD · EUR/GBP · XAU/USD. All outlooks: weekly forex and gold outlooks.
Frequently asked questions
When is the EUR/USD forecast updated?
A new EUR/USD edition is normally published before each trading week, and this page is refreshed with it. The date of the edition shown is at the top of the latest outlook section.
Is this EUR/USD forecast a trading signal?
No. It is analysis for education, describing scenarios and levels from published sources. Forexuro signals, with entry, stop loss and targets, are posted separately.
Where can I find past EUR/USD forecasts?
Every past weekly edition is listed in the archive on this page and stays online at its own dated address.
What time zone are the event times in?
Event times in the weekly outlooks are given in GMT, which is UK time in winter. In British Summer Time, add one hour for UK time.
Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.