EUR/USD weekly outlook: week of 26 October 2026
A sourced look at what could move EUR/USD in a week packed with central bank decisions. Analysis only, not a forecast you can bank on.
Last updated: · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy
Published · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team
Latest outlook: EUR/USD forecast this week always shows the newest edition, with links to every past week.
Analysis, not advice. This outlook describes scenarios based on published news and scheduled events. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it does not guarantee any price, and markets can move in ways no outlook anticipates. Levels quoted from third parties are their analysis, not Forexuro trade signals. Trading carries a high risk of loss; read the risk disclosure.
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- EUR/USD ended the week to 23 October at 1.1204, down 0.36%, after trading between 1.1187 and 1.1259 (Yahoo Finance data compiled by Bullquill; NordFX put the close at 1.1203).
- Key events: German Ifo business climate (October); FOMC decision; US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation; ECB decision; German and euro area Q3 GDP.
- Upside scenario and downside scenario below; neither is a prediction.
Where it stands
EUR/USD ended the week to 23 October at 1.1204, down 0.36%, after trading between 1.1187 and 1.1259 (Yahoo Finance data compiled by Bullquill; NordFX put the close at 1.1203). The euro's problem was France: the French 10-year yield climbed above 5%, its highest since 2002, and euro area flash PMIs disappointed, with the composite index falling to 51.9 from 53.1. After Friday's close Moody's affirmed France at Aa3 with a negative outlook, according to NordFX. The dollar index itself ended almost flat at 101.75, so most of the move came from the euro side.
Events this week
| When (GMT) | Event |
|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct | UK clocks went back one hour; US clocks change on 1 November, so London and New York are four hours apart this week |
| Mon 26 Oct | German Ifo business climate (October); China's Fifth Plenum runs from 26 to 29 October |
| Tue 27 Oct | FOMC meeting begins; US durable goods orders (September) and consumer confidence (October) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 00:30 GMT | Australia CPI (September and Q3) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 01:00 GMT | RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision |
| Wed 28 Oct, about 12:30 GMT (expected) | UK Autumn Budget and OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook |
| Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 GMT | Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report |
| Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT | FOMC decision; press conference 18:30 GMT |
| Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 GMT | US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation |
| Thu 29 Oct, 13:15 GMT | ECB decision; press conference 13:45 GMT |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo morning | Tokyo CPI (October) |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo midday (no fixed time) | Bank of Japan decision and Outlook Report |
| Fri 30 Oct | German and euro area Q3 GDP; German flash CPI (October) |
| Tue 3 Nov and Thu 5 Nov | Next week: RBA decision and US midterm elections (3 November); Bank of England decision (5 November) |
UK time equals GMT from 25 October. Times are scheduled times from the issuing institutions and market calendars; check before trading. Highlighted rows matter most for EUR/USD. Background: economic events explained and central bank rates.
What matters this week
Both central banks are expected to hold. Newsquawk cited a Reuters poll in which 94 of 100 economists expect the Fed to keep its range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, and it does not expect the ECB to move on Thursday either. What matters is December: CNBC reported market odds of 81% for a Fed hike and 66% for an ECB hike at their December meetings. US Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation are released 45 minutes before the ECB decision; Newsquawk put consensus for PCE at 3.6% year on year and core PCE at 3.1%. German and euro area GDP and German inflation close the week on Friday, and French bond yields remain the wild card for the euro.
Scenarios
Upside case. A Fed statement that keeps December open without committing to it, a softer PCE print or an ECB that sounds confident about a December hike despite France could lift EUR/USD back to 1.1260, the first resistance cited by NordFX, with 1.1355 above.
Downside case. Firm US inflation data, a Fed that leans clearly towards December or fresh selling in French bonds could push the pair back to 1.1113, the 2026 low set on 14 October, with the 200-week average near 1.1105 and 1.1000 below (NordFX).
Either can happen, and the first reaction to a release often reverses. Read the EUR/USD guide for the longer term drivers.
Levels in focus
- Resistance: 1.1260, then 1.1355 (NordFX)
- Reference: 1.1204 close on 23 October; week range 1.1187 to 1.1259 (Bullquill)
- Support: 1.1113, the 2026 low of 14 October; 200-week average near 1.1105; 1.1000 (NordFX)
How EUR/USD usually trades
EUR/USD is the most traded currency pair in the world, so it usually has the tightest spreads and the deepest liquidity of any market covered here. Over the long run its direction has been set mainly by the gap between European Central Bank and Federal Reserve policy: when markets expect US rates to stay higher than eurozone rates, the dollar side tends to win, and the reverse is also true. Eurozone growth surveys, German data and energy prices matter more for the euro than for most other currencies, because the region imports much of its energy. In 2022, a period of fast Fed hikes and an energy shock, the pair briefly traded below parity.
The busiest hours are the London morning and the overlap with New York, when both sides of the pair are fully open. Asian hours are usually quieter. Because the euro is the largest component of the US dollar index, EUR/USD tends to move in the opposite direction to the index, and it often moves in the same direction as GBP/USD and against USD/CHF. Check the correlation calculator before holding several of these at once, as the risk can add up.
Managing risk this week
With several central bank decisions in a few days, spreads can widen and gaps are possible around announcements. Size trades from the stop with the position size calculator and consider smaller size or no new positions just before the main releases. Forexuro trade alerts always include a stop loss; see the EUR/USD signals page, and follow the free Telegram channel for updates during the week.
Sources
- Bullquill: Dollar Index This Week, weekly forex brief, 23 October 2026 (Yahoo Finance data) (link)
- NordFX: Forex and cryptocurrency forecast for 26 to 30 October 2026 (link)
- Newsquawk: Week in Focus, 26 to 30 October 2026, published 23 October 2026 (link)
- CNBC: Euro sinks on French debt worries; yen gains on AI rout, 23 October 2026 (link)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC target range history, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
- ECB: key ECB interest rates, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
Prices are approximate reference levels at the time of writing and will have changed. This is the first weekly edition, refreshed on 25 October 2026 with the closing levels of the week to 23 October; outlooks for other markets: GBP/USD · USD/JPY · USD/CHF · AUD/USD · USD/CAD · NZD/USD · EUR/GBP · XAU/USD.
Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.