GBP/USD forecast this week
The newest weekly GBP/USD outlook in one place, refreshed when each new edition is published, with links to every past week. Analysis only, not a recommendation.
Last updated: · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy
Published · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team
Analysis, not advice. This outlook describes scenarios based on published news and scheduled events. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it does not guarantee any price, and markets can move in ways no outlook anticipates. Levels quoted from third parties are their analysis, not Forexuro trade signals. Trading carries a high risk of loss; read the risk disclosure.
This page always carries the most recent Forexuro weekly outlook for GBP/USD. Each edition sets out where the market closed the previous week, the scheduled events that could move it, an upside and a downside scenario and the price levels other analysts are watching, with every source listed. When a new edition is published, the section below is replaced and the previous week moves into the archive, so you can bookmark this address and come back each weekend.
Free on Telegram. New members currently get free signals on joining, plus daily GBP/USD and gold updates through the week.
Free, opens TelegramLatest outlook: week of 26 October 2026
This section is copied from the full GBP/USD edition for the week of 26 October 2026, last updated . Levels and figures are as of that date and will have changed.
Summary
- GBP/USD closed the week at 1.3375, up 0.35%, in a range of 1.3305 to 1.3417 (Bullquill, Yahoo Finance data).
- Key events: UK Autumn Budget and OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook; FOMC decision; US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation.
- Upside scenario and downside scenario below; neither is a prediction.
Where it stands
GBP/USD closed the week at 1.3375, up 0.35%, in a range of 1.3305 to 1.3417 (Bullquill, Yahoo Finance data). UK CPI rose to 3.5% in September, which took sterling to around $1.34 and left markets fully pricing a Bank of England hike in November, according to Bullquill. Friday's October PMIs were strong, while September retail sales came in weaker than expected (Newsquawk). Bank Rate is 3.75%, and the next decision is on 5 November.
Events this week
| When (GMT) | Event |
|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct | UK clocks went back one hour; US clocks change on 1 November, so London and New York are four hours apart this week |
| Mon 26 Oct | German Ifo business climate (October); China's Fifth Plenum runs from 26 to 29 October |
| Tue 27 Oct | FOMC meeting begins; US durable goods orders (September) and consumer confidence (October) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 00:30 GMT | Australia CPI (September and Q3) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 01:00 GMT | RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision |
| Wed 28 Oct, about 12:30 GMT (expected) | UK Autumn Budget and OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook |
| Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 GMT | Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report |
| Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT | FOMC decision; press conference 18:30 GMT |
| Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 GMT | US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation |
| Thu 29 Oct, 13:15 GMT | ECB decision; press conference 13:45 GMT |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo morning | Tokyo CPI (October) |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo midday (no fixed time) | Bank of Japan decision and Outlook Report |
| Fri 30 Oct | German and euro area Q3 GDP; German flash CPI (October) |
| Tue 3 Nov and Thu 5 Nov | Next week: RBA decision and US midterm elections (3 November); Bank of England decision (5 November) |
UK time equals GMT from 25 October. Times are scheduled times from the issuing institutions and market calendars; check before trading. Highlighted rows matter most for GBP/USD. Background: economic events explained and central bank rates.
What matters this week
Wednesday is the busiest day for the pound. Chancellor John Healey presents the Autumn Budget, expected around 12:30 GMT, and the FOMC statement follows at 18:00 GMT. Ebury described sterling as heading into Budget week on the front foot, with reports that capital gains tax rises are off the table and a November rate hike looking settled. Admirals cited a Reuters poll putting fiscal headroom at about £10bn to £12bn, down from £23.6bn in March. The gilt market is the channel to watch: a Budget that calms gilts could help sterling, but lower yields would also trim the case for Bank of England hikes beyond November. US GDP and PCE inflation on Thursday complete the picture.
Scenarios
Upside case. A low-drama Budget that eases gilt yields, together with a Fed that does not push hard towards December, could take GBP/USD back above last week's 1.3417 high towards 1.3430, a level K2FX flagged (via Admirals).
Downside case. A Budget that unsettles the gilt market or a hawkish Fed that lifts the dollar could pull the pair back to 1.3305, last week's low, and then 1.3194, the 2026 closing low of 14 October (Admirals).
Either can happen, and the first reaction to a release often reverses. Read the GBP/USD guide for the longer term drivers.
Levels in focus
- Resistance: 1.3417, last week's high (Bullquill); 1.3430 (K2FX via Admirals)
- Reference: 1.3375 close on 23 October (Bullquill)
- Support: 1.3305, last week's low; 1.3194, the 2026 closing low; 1.3137, the 2026 intraday low (Admirals)
Sources for this edition
- Bullquill: Dollar Index This Week, weekly forex brief, 23 October 2026 (Yahoo Finance data) (link)
- Newsquawk: Week in Focus, 26 to 30 October 2026, published 23 October 2026 (link)
- Newsquawk: US market FX wrap, 23 October 2026
- FXStreet (Ebury): Sterling heads into Budget week on the front foot, 23 October 2026 (link)
- Admirals: UK Budget on 28 October, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and FTSE 100 scenarios, 21 October 2026 (link)
- Bank of England: Bank Rate, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC target range history, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
How to read this forecast
A weekly outlook is a map of what could happen, not a call on what will. The scenarios describe conditions under which the price might move one way or the other, and the levels come from published third party analysis, not from Forexuro trade signals. Markets often react first in one direction and then reverse, especially around central bank decisions, and the first move after a release is not a reliable guide to the rest of the week.
If you want trade ideas with a defined entry, stop loss and targets, those are posted as signals: see the GBP/USD signals page. New members currently get free signals on joining the free Telegram channel, where the team also posts updates during the week.
What usually moves GBP/USD
GBP/USD, known as cable, reacts to the gap between Bank of England and Federal Reserve expectations, to UK inflation and wage data and to UK fiscal news such as budgets, which can move gilt yields and the pound together. It is one of the most liquid pairs during UK hours, and many UK traders know it best because news about the British economy arrives in their own time zone.
Read the GBP/USD pair guide for the longer term background, and the guides to the releases that matter most: Bank of England rate decision, UK CPI inflation, FOMC rate decision.
Past weekly editions
Every dated edition stays online with its original sources, so you can compare what was expected with what happened.
Forecasts for other markets: EUR/USD · USD/JPY · USD/CHF · AUD/USD · USD/CAD · NZD/USD · EUR/GBP · XAU/USD. All outlooks: weekly forex and gold outlooks.
Frequently asked questions
When is the GBP/USD forecast updated?
A new GBP/USD edition is normally published before each trading week, and this page is refreshed with it. The date of the edition shown is at the top of the latest outlook section.
Is this GBP/USD forecast a trading signal?
No. It is analysis for education, describing scenarios and levels from published sources. Forexuro signals, with entry, stop loss and targets, are posted separately.
Where can I find past GBP/USD forecasts?
Every past weekly edition is listed in the archive on this page and stays online at its own dated address.
What time zone are the event times in?
Event times in the weekly outlooks are given in GMT, which is UK time in winter. In British Summer Time, add one hour for UK time.
Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.