EUR/GBP forecast this week
The newest weekly EUR/GBP outlook in one place, refreshed when each new edition is published, with links to every past week. Analysis only, not a recommendation.
Last updated: · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy
Published · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team
Analysis, not advice. This outlook describes scenarios based on published news and scheduled events. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it does not guarantee any price, and markets can move in ways no outlook anticipates. Levels quoted from third parties are their analysis, not Forexuro trade signals. Trading carries a high risk of loss; read the risk disclosure.
This page always carries the most recent Forexuro weekly outlook for EUR/GBP. Each edition sets out where the market closed the previous week, the scheduled events that could move it, an upside and a downside scenario and the price levels other analysts are watching, with every source listed. When a new edition is published, the section below is replaced and the previous week moves into the archive, so you can bookmark this address and come back each weekend.
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Free, opens TelegramLatest outlook: week of 26 October 2026
This section is copied from the full EUR/GBP edition for the week of 26 October 2026, last updated . Levels and figures are as of that date and will have changed.
Summary
- EUR/GBP fell on each of the last five trading days on the ECB reference rate, from 0.84385 on 16 October to 0.83728 on 23 October.
- Key events: German Ifo business climate (October); UK Autumn Budget and OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook; ECB decision; German and euro area Q3 GDP.
- Upside scenario and downside scenario below; neither is a prediction.
Where it stands
EUR/GBP fell on each of the last five trading days on the ECB reference rate, from 0.84385 on 16 October to 0.83728 on 23 October. That took it below 0.8385, the 2026 low that Admirals noted on 20 October. The euro has been held back by French bond stress, with the French 10-year yield above 5% for the first time since 2002 (Bullquill), and by weaker euro area PMIs, while sterling has been supported by UK inflation at 3.5% and a fully priced Bank of England hike in November.
Events this week
| When (GMT) | Event |
|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct | UK clocks went back one hour; US clocks change on 1 November, so London and New York are four hours apart this week |
| Mon 26 Oct | German Ifo business climate (October); China's Fifth Plenum runs from 26 to 29 October |
| Tue 27 Oct | FOMC meeting begins; US durable goods orders (September) and consumer confidence (October) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 00:30 GMT | Australia CPI (September and Q3) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 01:00 GMT | RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision |
| Wed 28 Oct, about 12:30 GMT (expected) | UK Autumn Budget and OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook |
| Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 GMT | Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report |
| Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT | FOMC decision; press conference 18:30 GMT |
| Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 GMT | US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation |
| Thu 29 Oct, 13:15 GMT | ECB decision; press conference 13:45 GMT |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo morning | Tokyo CPI (October) |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo midday (no fixed time) | Bank of Japan decision and Outlook Report |
| Fri 30 Oct | German and euro area Q3 GDP; German flash CPI (October) |
| Tue 3 Nov and Thu 5 Nov | Next week: RBA decision and US midterm elections (3 November); Bank of England decision (5 November) |
UK time equals GMT from 25 October. Times are scheduled times from the issuing institutions and market calendars; check before trading. Highlighted rows matter most for EUR/GBP. Background: economic events explained and central bank rates.
What matters this week
Each side of the pair has a major event this week: the UK Budget on Wednesday, expected around 12:30 GMT, and the ECB decision on Thursday at 13:15 GMT, with the press conference at 13:45. Newsquawk does not expect the ECB to move, and CNBC reported market odds of 66% for a December ECB hike. Admirals noted that lower gilt yields after a calm Budget could cut both ways for sterling, because they would weaken the case for more Bank of England hikes. German and euro area GDP and German inflation arrive on Friday.
Scenarios
Upside case. A Budget that unsettles gilts, or an ECB that clearly signals December despite France, could lift EUR/GBP back towards 0.8430 and 0.8450, levels Admirals listed as resistance.
Downside case. Calm UK markets after the Budget, a cautious ECB or more stress in French bonds could extend the decline through the 0.8355 to 0.8374 support zone (KBC via Admirals) towards 0.8350 (K2FX via Admirals).
Either can happen, and the first reaction to a release often reverses. Read the EUR/GBP guide for the longer term drivers.
Levels in focus
- Resistance: 0.8385, the former 2026 low; 0.8430 and 0.8450 (Admirals)
- Reference: 0.83728, ECB reference rate on 23 October
- Support: 0.8355 to 0.8374 (KBC via Admirals); 0.8350 (K2FX via Admirals)
Sources for this edition
- ECB: euro reference exchange rates, pound sterling, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
- Admirals: UK Budget on 28 October, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and FTSE 100 scenarios, 21 October 2026 (link)
- Bullquill: Dollar Index This Week, weekly forex brief, 23 October 2026 (Yahoo Finance data) (link)
- CNBC: Euro sinks on French debt worries; yen gains on AI rout, 23 October 2026 (link)
- Newsquawk: Week in Focus, 26 to 30 October 2026, published 23 October 2026 (link)
- ECB: key ECB interest rates, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
- Bank of England: Bank Rate, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
How to read this forecast
A weekly outlook is a map of what could happen, not a call on what will. The scenarios describe conditions under which the price might move one way or the other, and the levels come from published third party analysis, not from Forexuro trade signals. Markets often react first in one direction and then reverse, especially around central bank decisions, and the first move after a release is not a reliable guide to the rest of the week.
If you want trade ideas with a defined entry, stop loss and targets, those are posted as signals: see the forex signals page. New members currently get free signals on joining the free Telegram channel, where the team also posts updates during the week.
What usually moves EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP is a cross between two closely linked European economies, so it usually moves less than the dollar pairs. It reacts to the gap between Bank of England and ECB expectations, to UK inflation and fiscal news and to euro area politics. For UK traders it is a direct read on how the pound is doing against its largest trading partner.
Read the EUR/GBP pair guide for the longer term background, and the guides to the releases that matter most: Bank of England rate decision, ECB rate decision, UK CPI inflation.
Past weekly editions
Every dated edition stays online with its original sources, so you can compare what was expected with what happened.
Forecasts for other markets: EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · USD/CHF · AUD/USD · USD/CAD · NZD/USD · XAU/USD. All outlooks: weekly forex and gold outlooks.
Frequently asked questions
When is the EUR/GBP forecast updated?
A new EUR/GBP edition is normally published before each trading week, and this page is refreshed with it. The date of the edition shown is at the top of the latest outlook section.
Is this EUR/GBP forecast a trading signal?
No. It is analysis for education, describing scenarios and levels from published sources. Forexuro signals, with entry, stop loss and targets, are posted separately.
Where can I find past EUR/GBP forecasts?
Every past weekly edition is listed in the archive on this page and stays online at its own dated address.
What time zone are the event times in?
Event times in the weekly outlooks are given in GMT, which is UK time in winter. In British Summer Time, add one hour for UK time.
Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.