EUR/GBP weekly outlook: week of 26 October 2026
A sourced look at what could move EUR/GBP in a week packed with central bank decisions. Analysis only, not a forecast you can bank on.
Last updated: · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy
Published · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team
Latest outlook: EUR/GBP forecast this week always shows the newest edition, with links to every past week.
Analysis, not advice. This outlook describes scenarios based on published news and scheduled events. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it does not guarantee any price, and markets can move in ways no outlook anticipates. Levels quoted from third parties are their analysis, not Forexuro trade signals. Trading carries a high risk of loss; read the risk disclosure.
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- EUR/GBP fell on each of the last five trading days on the ECB reference rate, from 0.84385 on 16 October to 0.83728 on 23 October.
- Key events: German Ifo business climate (October); UK Autumn Budget and OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook; ECB decision; German and euro area Q3 GDP.
- Upside scenario and downside scenario below; neither is a prediction.
Where it stands
EUR/GBP fell on each of the last five trading days on the ECB reference rate, from 0.84385 on 16 October to 0.83728 on 23 October. That took it below 0.8385, the 2026 low that Admirals noted on 20 October. The euro has been held back by French bond stress, with the French 10-year yield above 5% for the first time since 2002 (Bullquill), and by weaker euro area PMIs, while sterling has been supported by UK inflation at 3.5% and a fully priced Bank of England hike in November.
Events this week
| When (GMT) | Event |
|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct | UK clocks went back one hour; US clocks change on 1 November, so London and New York are four hours apart this week |
| Mon 26 Oct | German Ifo business climate (October); China's Fifth Plenum runs from 26 to 29 October |
| Tue 27 Oct | FOMC meeting begins; US durable goods orders (September) and consumer confidence (October) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 00:30 GMT | Australia CPI (September and Q3) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 01:00 GMT | RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision |
| Wed 28 Oct, about 12:30 GMT (expected) | UK Autumn Budget and OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook |
| Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 GMT | Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report |
| Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT | FOMC decision; press conference 18:30 GMT |
| Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 GMT | US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation |
| Thu 29 Oct, 13:15 GMT | ECB decision; press conference 13:45 GMT |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo morning | Tokyo CPI (October) |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo midday (no fixed time) | Bank of Japan decision and Outlook Report |
| Fri 30 Oct | German and euro area Q3 GDP; German flash CPI (October) |
| Tue 3 Nov and Thu 5 Nov | Next week: RBA decision and US midterm elections (3 November); Bank of England decision (5 November) |
UK time equals GMT from 25 October. Times are scheduled times from the issuing institutions and market calendars; check before trading. Highlighted rows matter most for EUR/GBP. Background: economic events explained and central bank rates.
What matters this week
Each side of the pair has a major event this week: the UK Budget on Wednesday, expected around 12:30 GMT, and the ECB decision on Thursday at 13:15 GMT, with the press conference at 13:45. Newsquawk does not expect the ECB to move, and CNBC reported market odds of 66% for a December ECB hike. Admirals noted that lower gilt yields after a calm Budget could cut both ways for sterling, because they would weaken the case for more Bank of England hikes. German and euro area GDP and German inflation arrive on Friday.
Scenarios
Upside case. A Budget that unsettles gilts, or an ECB that clearly signals December despite France, could lift EUR/GBP back towards 0.8430 and 0.8450, levels Admirals listed as resistance.
Downside case. Calm UK markets after the Budget, a cautious ECB or more stress in French bonds could extend the decline through the 0.8355 to 0.8374 support zone (KBC via Admirals) towards 0.8350 (K2FX via Admirals).
Either can happen, and the first reaction to a release often reverses. Read the EUR/GBP guide for the longer term drivers.
Levels in focus
- Resistance: 0.8385, the former 2026 low; 0.8430 and 0.8450 (Admirals)
- Reference: 0.83728, ECB reference rate on 23 October
- Support: 0.8355 to 0.8374 (KBC via Admirals); 0.8350 (K2FX via Admirals)
How EUR/GBP usually trades
EUR/GBP is a cross rate, so the US dollar does not appear in it at all. Its direction depends on how the eurozone and UK economies, and the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, compare with each other. Because the two economies are closely linked and often face similar shocks, the pair has historically traded in narrower ranges than most dollar pairs, with occasional sharp moves when the UK or the eurozone faces its own specific political or economic news, as around the 2016 Brexit referendum.
The most important releases for the pair arrive in the European morning: UK inflation, jobs and growth data, eurozone flash PMIs and inflation, and the rate decisions of both central banks. Liquidity is best during London hours and drops away once European markets close.
Because the moves are often smaller, some traders use tighter stops on EUR/GBP, but spreads can be a larger share of the expected move, so the cost matters more. EUR/GBP is also a useful check on dollar pairs: if EUR/USD and GBP/USD both rise, EUR/GBP shows which currency is doing more of the work.
Managing risk this week
With several central bank decisions in a few days, spreads can widen and gaps are possible around announcements. Size trades from the stop with the position size calculator and consider smaller size or no new positions just before the main releases. Forexuro trade alerts always include a stop loss; see the forex signals page, and follow the free Telegram channel for updates during the week.
Sources
- ECB: euro reference exchange rates, pound sterling, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
- Admirals: UK Budget on 28 October, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and FTSE 100 scenarios, 21 October 2026 (link)
- Bullquill: Dollar Index This Week, weekly forex brief, 23 October 2026 (Yahoo Finance data) (link)
- CNBC: Euro sinks on French debt worries; yen gains on AI rout, 23 October 2026 (link)
- Newsquawk: Week in Focus, 26 to 30 October 2026, published 23 October 2026 (link)
- ECB: key ECB interest rates, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
- Bank of England: Bank Rate, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
Prices are approximate reference levels at the time of writing and will have changed. This is the first weekly edition, refreshed on 25 October 2026 with the closing levels of the week to 23 October; outlooks for other markets: EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · USD/CHF · AUD/USD · USD/CAD · NZD/USD · XAU/USD.
Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.