NZD/USD forecast this week
The newest weekly NZD/USD outlook in one place, refreshed when each new edition is published, with links to every past week. Analysis only, not a recommendation.
Last updated: · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy
Published · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team
Analysis, not advice. This outlook describes scenarios based on published news and scheduled events. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it does not guarantee any price, and markets can move in ways no outlook anticipates. Levels quoted from third parties are their analysis, not Forexuro trade signals. Trading carries a high risk of loss; read the risk disclosure.
This page always carries the most recent Forexuro weekly outlook for NZD/USD. Each edition sets out where the market closed the previous week, the scheduled events that could move it, an upside and a downside scenario and the price levels other analysts are watching, with every source listed. When a new edition is published, the section below is replaced and the previous week moves into the archive, so you can bookmark this address and come back each weekend.
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Free, opens TelegramLatest outlook: week of 26 October 2026
This section is copied from the full NZD/USD edition for the week of 26 October 2026, last updated . Levels and figures are as of that date and will have changed.
Summary
- NZD/USD closed on Friday at 0.5697 after a day range of 0.5679 to 0.5705 (EconoTimes), and the RBNZ's own exchange rate fixing for 23 October was 0.56890.
- Key events: RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision; FOMC decision; US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation.
- Upside scenario and downside scenario below; neither is a prediction.
Where it stands
NZD/USD closed on Friday at 0.5697 after a day range of 0.5679 to 0.5705 (EconoTimes), and the RBNZ's own exchange rate fixing for 23 October was 0.56890. The kiwi touched a one-month high of 0.5709 during the week, according to Reuters via Business Recorder. New Zealand's Q3 CPI rose 0.7% on the quarter, with annual inflation easing to 3.7% from 4.1%. ANZ, ASB, BNZ and Westpac all expect a 25 basis point hike this week, with Kiwibank the outlier (NZ Adviser). The OCR is 2.75%.
Events this week
| When (GMT) | Event |
|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct | UK clocks went back one hour; US clocks change on 1 November, so London and New York are four hours apart this week |
| Mon 26 Oct | German Ifo business climate (October); China's Fifth Plenum runs from 26 to 29 October |
| Tue 27 Oct | FOMC meeting begins; US durable goods orders (September) and consumer confidence (October) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 00:30 GMT | Australia CPI (September and Q3) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 01:00 GMT | RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision |
| Wed 28 Oct, about 12:30 GMT (expected) | UK Autumn Budget and OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook |
| Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 GMT | Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report |
| Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT | FOMC decision; press conference 18:30 GMT |
| Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 GMT | US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation |
| Thu 29 Oct, 13:15 GMT | ECB decision; press conference 13:45 GMT |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo morning | Tokyo CPI (October) |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo midday (no fixed time) | Bank of Japan decision and Outlook Report |
| Fri 30 Oct | German and euro area Q3 GDP; German flash CPI (October) |
| Tue 3 Nov and Thu 5 Nov | Next week: RBA decision and US midterm elections (3 November); Bank of England decision (5 November) |
UK time equals GMT from 25 October. Times are scheduled times from the issuing institutions and market calendars; check before trading. Highlighted rows matter most for NZD/USD. Background: economic events explained and central bank rates.
What matters this week
The RBNZ announces at 2pm Wellington time on Wednesday, which is 01:00 GMT. Pricing for a hike to 3.00% ranges from about 75 to 80% in Newsquawk's preview to about 95% in the Reuters report carried by Business Recorder, which also said markets see the OCR peaking at 3.75% next year. With a hike largely priced, the guidance on how far and how fast matters most. Australian CPI 30 minutes earlier and the FOMC later on Wednesday add to the risk.
Scenarios
Upside case. A hike that leaves the door open to more, plus a softer dollar, could lift NZD/USD through 0.5709 towards the 0.5750 resistance cited by Reuters.
Downside case. A hold, a hike with a clear signal that 3.00% is enough, or a hawkish Fed could pull the pair back towards 0.5566 support (Reuters via Business Recorder).
Either can happen, and the first reaction to a release often reverses. Read the NZD/USD guide for the longer term drivers.
Levels in focus
- Resistance: 0.5709, last week's one-month high; 0.5750 (Reuters via Business Recorder)
- Reference: 0.5697 close on 23 October (EconoTimes); RBNZ fixing 0.56890
- Support: 0.5566 (Reuters via Business Recorder)
Sources for this edition
- EconoTimes: NZD/USD daily close, 23 October 2026
- Business Recorder (Reuters): Australian and New Zealand dollars, 23 October 2026 (link)
- Business Recorder (Reuters): New Zealand CPI and Antipodean currencies, October 2026 (link)
- NZ Adviser (MPA): bank economists on the RBNZ decision, October 2026
- Newsquawk: Week in Focus, 26 to 30 October 2026, published 23 October 2026 (link)
- Newsquawk: US market FX wrap, 23 October 2026
- RBNZ: monetary policy and the OCR, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC target range history, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
How to read this forecast
A weekly outlook is a map of what could happen, not a call on what will. The scenarios describe conditions under which the price might move one way or the other, and the levels come from published third party analysis, not from Forexuro trade signals. Markets often react first in one direction and then reverse, especially around central bank decisions, and the first move after a release is not a reliable guide to the rest of the week.
If you want trade ideas with a defined entry, stop loss and targets, those are posted as signals: see the forex signals page. New members currently get free signals on joining the free Telegram channel, where the team also posts updates during the week.
What usually moves NZD/USD
NZD/USD, the kiwi, reacts to Reserve Bank of New Zealand decisions and the bank's published rate track, to dairy prices, Chinese demand and global risk appetite. RBNZ decisions land overnight in the UK, when liquidity is thin, so the pair can gap while UK traders are asleep. It often moves with AUD/USD.
Read the NZD/USD pair guide for the longer term background, and the guides to the releases that matter most: RBNZ rate decision, FOMC rate decision, US CPI inflation.
Past weekly editions
Every dated edition stays online with its original sources, so you can compare what was expected with what happened.
Forecasts for other markets: EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · USD/CHF · AUD/USD · USD/CAD · EUR/GBP · XAU/USD. All outlooks: weekly forex and gold outlooks.
Frequently asked questions
When is the NZD/USD forecast updated?
A new NZD/USD edition is normally published before each trading week, and this page is refreshed with it. The date of the edition shown is at the top of the latest outlook section.
Is this NZD/USD forecast a trading signal?
No. It is analysis for education, describing scenarios and levels from published sources. Forexuro signals, with entry, stop loss and targets, are posted separately.
Where can I find past NZD/USD forecasts?
Every past weekly edition is listed in the archive on this page and stays online at its own dated address.
What time zone are the event times in?
Event times in the weekly outlooks are given in GMT, which is UK time in winter. In British Summer Time, add one hour for UK time.
Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.