NZD/USD weekly outlook: week of 26 October 2026
A sourced look at what could move NZD/USD in a week packed with central bank decisions. Analysis only, not a forecast you can bank on.
Last updated: · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy
Published · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team
Latest outlook: NZD/USD forecast this week always shows the newest edition, with links to every past week.
Analysis, not advice. This outlook describes scenarios based on published news and scheduled events. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it does not guarantee any price, and markets can move in ways no outlook anticipates. Levels quoted from third parties are their analysis, not Forexuro trade signals. Trading carries a high risk of loss; read the risk disclosure.
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- NZD/USD closed on Friday at 0.5697 after a day range of 0.5679 to 0.5705 (EconoTimes), and the RBNZ's own exchange rate fixing for 23 October was 0.56890.
- Key events: RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision; FOMC decision; US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation.
- Upside scenario and downside scenario below; neither is a prediction.
Where it stands
NZD/USD closed on Friday at 0.5697 after a day range of 0.5679 to 0.5705 (EconoTimes), and the RBNZ's own exchange rate fixing for 23 October was 0.56890. The kiwi touched a one-month high of 0.5709 during the week, according to Reuters via Business Recorder. New Zealand's Q3 CPI rose 0.7% on the quarter, with annual inflation easing to 3.7% from 4.1%. ANZ, ASB, BNZ and Westpac all expect a 25 basis point hike this week, with Kiwibank the outlier (NZ Adviser). The OCR is 2.75%.
Events this week
| When (GMT) | Event |
|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct | UK clocks went back one hour; US clocks change on 1 November, so London and New York are four hours apart this week |
| Mon 26 Oct | German Ifo business climate (October); China's Fifth Plenum runs from 26 to 29 October |
| Tue 27 Oct | FOMC meeting begins; US durable goods orders (September) and consumer confidence (October) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 00:30 GMT | Australia CPI (September and Q3) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 01:00 GMT | RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision |
| Wed 28 Oct, about 12:30 GMT (expected) | UK Autumn Budget and OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook |
| Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 GMT | Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report |
| Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT | FOMC decision; press conference 18:30 GMT |
| Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 GMT | US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation |
| Thu 29 Oct, 13:15 GMT | ECB decision; press conference 13:45 GMT |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo morning | Tokyo CPI (October) |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo midday (no fixed time) | Bank of Japan decision and Outlook Report |
| Fri 30 Oct | German and euro area Q3 GDP; German flash CPI (October) |
| Tue 3 Nov and Thu 5 Nov | Next week: RBA decision and US midterm elections (3 November); Bank of England decision (5 November) |
UK time equals GMT from 25 October. Times are scheduled times from the issuing institutions and market calendars; check before trading. Highlighted rows matter most for NZD/USD. Background: economic events explained and central bank rates.
What matters this week
The RBNZ announces at 2pm Wellington time on Wednesday, which is 01:00 GMT. Pricing for a hike to 3.00% ranges from about 75 to 80% in Newsquawk's preview to about 95% in the Reuters report carried by Business Recorder, which also said markets see the OCR peaking at 3.75% next year. With a hike largely priced, the guidance on how far and how fast matters most. Australian CPI 30 minutes earlier and the FOMC later on Wednesday add to the risk.
Scenarios
Upside case. A hike that leaves the door open to more, plus a softer dollar, could lift NZD/USD through 0.5709 towards the 0.5750 resistance cited by Reuters.
Downside case. A hold, a hike with a clear signal that 3.00% is enough, or a hawkish Fed could pull the pair back towards 0.5566 support (Reuters via Business Recorder).
Either can happen, and the first reaction to a release often reverses. Read the NZD/USD guide for the longer term drivers.
Levels in focus
- Resistance: 0.5709, last week's one-month high; 0.5750 (Reuters via Business Recorder)
- Reference: 0.5697 close on 23 October (EconoTimes); RBNZ fixing 0.56890
- Support: 0.5566 (Reuters via Business Recorder)
How NZD/USD usually trades
The New Zealand dollar, or kiwi, is a smaller and usually less liquid currency than its Australian neighbour. New Zealand is a leading exporter of dairy products, so the results of the Global Dairy Trade auctions, held twice a month, are one of the more unusual data points that can move NZD/USD. Demand from China and the wider Asia Pacific region, and global risk appetite, also play a large part.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand publishes seven monetary policy decisions a year, and its statements and published rate projections are watched closely. New Zealand was the first country to give its central bank a formal inflation target, in 1990. Local inflation is published quarterly, which makes each release more significant.
Wellington is the first major financial centre to open each week, so NZD/USD can gap or move on thin liquidity early on Monday in Asia. The pair often tracks AUD/USD, and positions in both should be treated as partly overlapping risk. Spreads can be wider than on the majors outside the main sessions, so check the cost before trading at quiet hours.
Managing risk this week
With several central bank decisions in a few days, spreads can widen and gaps are possible around announcements. Size trades from the stop with the position size calculator and consider smaller size or no new positions just before the main releases. Forexuro trade alerts always include a stop loss; see the forex signals page, and follow the free Telegram channel for updates during the week.
Sources
- EconoTimes: NZD/USD daily close, 23 October 2026
- Business Recorder (Reuters): Australian and New Zealand dollars, 23 October 2026 (link)
- Business Recorder (Reuters): New Zealand CPI and Antipodean currencies, October 2026 (link)
- NZ Adviser (MPA): bank economists on the RBNZ decision, October 2026
- Newsquawk: Week in Focus, 26 to 30 October 2026, published 23 October 2026 (link)
- Newsquawk: US market FX wrap, 23 October 2026
- RBNZ: monetary policy and the OCR, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC target range history, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
Prices are approximate reference levels at the time of writing and will have changed. This is the first weekly edition, refreshed on 25 October 2026 with the closing levels of the week to 23 October; outlooks for other markets: EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · USD/CHF · AUD/USD · USD/CAD · EUR/GBP · XAU/USD.
Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.