GBP/USD weekly outlook: week of 26 October 2026
A sourced look at what could move GBP/USD in a week packed with central bank decisions. Analysis only, not a forecast you can bank on.
Last updated: · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy
Published · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team
Latest outlook: GBP/USD forecast this week always shows the newest edition, with links to every past week.
Analysis, not advice. This outlook describes scenarios based on published news and scheduled events. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it does not guarantee any price, and markets can move in ways no outlook anticipates. Levels quoted from third parties are their analysis, not Forexuro trade signals. Trading carries a high risk of loss; read the risk disclosure.
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- GBP/USD closed the week at 1.3375, up 0.35%, in a range of 1.3305 to 1.3417 (Bullquill, Yahoo Finance data).
- Key events: UK Autumn Budget and OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook; FOMC decision; US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation.
- Upside scenario and downside scenario below; neither is a prediction.
Where it stands
GBP/USD closed the week at 1.3375, up 0.35%, in a range of 1.3305 to 1.3417 (Bullquill, Yahoo Finance data). UK CPI rose to 3.5% in September, which took sterling to around $1.34 and left markets fully pricing a Bank of England hike in November, according to Bullquill. Friday's October PMIs were strong, while September retail sales came in weaker than expected (Newsquawk). Bank Rate is 3.75%, and the next decision is on 5 November.
Events this week
| When (GMT) | Event |
|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct | UK clocks went back one hour; US clocks change on 1 November, so London and New York are four hours apart this week |
| Mon 26 Oct | German Ifo business climate (October); China's Fifth Plenum runs from 26 to 29 October |
| Tue 27 Oct | FOMC meeting begins; US durable goods orders (September) and consumer confidence (October) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 00:30 GMT | Australia CPI (September and Q3) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 01:00 GMT | RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision |
| Wed 28 Oct, about 12:30 GMT (expected) | UK Autumn Budget and OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook |
| Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 GMT | Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report |
| Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT | FOMC decision; press conference 18:30 GMT |
| Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 GMT | US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation |
| Thu 29 Oct, 13:15 GMT | ECB decision; press conference 13:45 GMT |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo morning | Tokyo CPI (October) |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo midday (no fixed time) | Bank of Japan decision and Outlook Report |
| Fri 30 Oct | German and euro area Q3 GDP; German flash CPI (October) |
| Tue 3 Nov and Thu 5 Nov | Next week: RBA decision and US midterm elections (3 November); Bank of England decision (5 November) |
UK time equals GMT from 25 October. Times are scheduled times from the issuing institutions and market calendars; check before trading. Highlighted rows matter most for GBP/USD. Background: economic events explained and central bank rates.
What matters this week
Wednesday is the busiest day for the pound. Chancellor John Healey presents the Autumn Budget, expected around 12:30 GMT, and the FOMC statement follows at 18:00 GMT. Ebury described sterling as heading into Budget week on the front foot, with reports that capital gains tax rises are off the table and a November rate hike looking settled. Admirals cited a Reuters poll putting fiscal headroom at about £10bn to £12bn, down from £23.6bn in March. The gilt market is the channel to watch: a Budget that calms gilts could help sterling, but lower yields would also trim the case for Bank of England hikes beyond November. US GDP and PCE inflation on Thursday complete the picture.
Scenarios
Upside case. A low-drama Budget that eases gilt yields, together with a Fed that does not push hard towards December, could take GBP/USD back above last week's 1.3417 high towards 1.3430, a level K2FX flagged (via Admirals).
Downside case. A Budget that unsettles the gilt market or a hawkish Fed that lifts the dollar could pull the pair back to 1.3305, last week's low, and then 1.3194, the 2026 closing low of 14 October (Admirals).
Either can happen, and the first reaction to a release often reverses. Read the GBP/USD guide for the longer term drivers.
Levels in focus
- Resistance: 1.3417, last week's high (Bullquill); 1.3430 (K2FX via Admirals)
- Reference: 1.3375 close on 23 October (Bullquill)
- Support: 1.3305, last week's low; 1.3194, the 2026 closing low; 1.3137, the 2026 intraday low (Admirals)
How GBP/USD usually trades
GBP/USD, known to traders as cable after the telegraph cable that once carried the rate across the Atlantic, is driven above all by the gap between Bank of England and Federal Reserve expectations. UK inflation, wage growth and the labour market feed directly into that gap, which is why UK CPI and jobs days can move the pair sharply. Sterling is also sensitive to UK fiscal news and to how investors view the UK's public finances: in September 2022 a mini budget sent the pound to a record low against the dollar within days.
Liquidity builds at the London open, when most UK data is released, and peaks in the overlap with New York. The pair is usually more volatile than EUR/USD in pips, so the same lot size carries more risk; size it from the stop with the position size calculator. GBP/USD often moves in the same direction as EUR/USD because both are priced against the dollar, but the two can diverge when UK and eurozone news point in different directions. EUR/GBP is the cleanest way to see that difference.
Managing risk this week
With several central bank decisions in a few days, spreads can widen and gaps are possible around announcements. Size trades from the stop with the position size calculator and consider smaller size or no new positions just before the main releases. Forexuro trade alerts always include a stop loss; see the GBP/USD signals page, and follow the free Telegram channel for updates during the week.
Sources
- Bullquill: Dollar Index This Week, weekly forex brief, 23 October 2026 (Yahoo Finance data) (link)
- Newsquawk: Week in Focus, 26 to 30 October 2026, published 23 October 2026 (link)
- Newsquawk: US market FX wrap, 23 October 2026
- FXStreet (Ebury): Sterling heads into Budget week on the front foot, 23 October 2026 (link)
- Admirals: UK Budget on 28 October, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and FTSE 100 scenarios, 21 October 2026 (link)
- Bank of England: Bank Rate, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC target range history, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
Prices are approximate reference levels at the time of writing and will have changed. This is the first weekly edition, refreshed on 25 October 2026 with the closing levels of the week to 23 October; outlooks for other markets: EUR/USD · USD/JPY · USD/CHF · AUD/USD · USD/CAD · NZD/USD · EUR/GBP · XAU/USD.
Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.