XAU/USD weekly outlook: week of 26 October 2026
A sourced look at what could move XAU/USD in a week packed with central bank decisions. Analysis only, not a forecast you can bank on.
Last updated: · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy
Published · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team
Latest outlook: XAU/USD forecast this week always shows the newest edition, with links to every past week.
Analysis, not advice. This outlook describes scenarios based on published news and scheduled events. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it does not guarantee any price, and markets can move in ways no outlook anticipates. Levels quoted from third parties are their analysis, not Forexuro trade signals. Trading carries a high risk of loss; read the risk disclosure.
Free on Telegram. Join the free Forexuro Telegram channel for daily XAU/USD and gold updates through this central bank week.
Free, opens TelegramSummary
- Gold had its worst week since June.
- Key events: FOMC decision; US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation.
- Upside scenario and downside scenario below; neither is a prediction.
Where it stands
Gold had its worst week since June. Spot gold slipped below $4,000 on 23 October for the first time since mid-July and was at $3,998.49 late in the session, down about 4% on the week (CNBC). GoldPrice.com recorded a close of $3,995.81, and Comex futures settled at $3,991.10, down 4.05% on the week (Dow Jones Market Data via Morningstar). NordFX put the low at $3,975, a three-month low. Higher oil, with Brent at $116.93, revived inflation worries and kept a December Fed hike priced, which weighed on the metal.
Events this week
| When (GMT) | Event |
|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct | UK clocks went back one hour; US clocks change on 1 November, so London and New York are four hours apart this week |
| Mon 26 Oct | German Ifo business climate (October); China's Fifth Plenum runs from 26 to 29 October |
| Tue 27 Oct | FOMC meeting begins; US durable goods orders (September) and consumer confidence (October) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 00:30 GMT | Australia CPI (September and Q3) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 01:00 GMT | RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision |
| Wed 28 Oct, about 12:30 GMT (expected) | UK Autumn Budget and OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook |
| Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 GMT | Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report |
| Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT | FOMC decision; press conference 18:30 GMT |
| Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 GMT | US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation |
| Thu 29 Oct, 13:15 GMT | ECB decision; press conference 13:45 GMT |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo morning | Tokyo CPI (October) |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo midday (no fixed time) | Bank of Japan decision and Outlook Report |
| Fri 30 Oct | German and euro area Q3 GDP; German flash CPI (October) |
| Tue 3 Nov and Thu 5 Nov | Next week: RBA decision and US midterm elections (3 November); Bank of England decision (5 November) |
UK time equals GMT from 25 October. Times are scheduled times from the issuing institutions and market calendars; check before trading. Highlighted rows matter most for XAU/USD. Background: economic events explained and central bank rates.
What matters this week
The FOMC on Wednesday is the main event. A hold is expected, so the focus is on how clearly a December hike is signalled. US GDP and PCE inflation follow on Thursday. Oil and Middle East headlines cut both ways: they can bring safe haven buying, but recently their effect on inflation expectations and yields has dominated. NordFX noted a daily RSI near 33, with price below the 20-day average near $4,149.
Scenarios
Upside case. A softer PCE print, a Fed that plays down December, lower yields or safe haven buying could lift gold back to $4,030 and then $4,150, the resistance levels cited by NordFX.
Downside case. A hawkish Fed and firm inflation data could take gold through $3,975, last week's low, towards $3,900 (NordFX).
Either can happen, and the first reaction to a release often reverses. Read the XAU/USD guide for the longer term drivers.
Levels in focus
- Resistance: $4,030, then $4,150 (NordFX)
- Reference: $3,998.49 spot late on 23 October (CNBC); Comex settlement $3,991.10
- Support: $3,975, last week's low; $3,900 (NordFX)
How XAU/USD usually trades
Gold is priced in US dollars per troy ounce and pays no interest, so two of its most consistent drivers are the dollar itself and real, inflation adjusted, US interest rates. When real yields rise, holding gold becomes relatively less attractive, and the reverse tends to support it. That link is not fixed, though: gold also attracts buyers during geopolitical stress and financial turmoil, and purchases by central banks, which have been significant buyers in recent years, can support prices even when yields are high.
Trading in gold moves around the clock, with demand from Asian markets during the Tokyo and Shanghai hours, the London market where the benchmark LBMA prices are set, and futures trading in New York. The busiest stretch is usually the London and New York overlap, when US data such as inflation and jobs figures are released.
Gold usually moves much further in a day than a major currency pair, so the same lot size carries much more risk. Size every trade from the stop with the gold position size calculator, and be aware that it often moves opposite to the US dollar index. Our XAU/USD market guide explains the quote and pip value in more detail.
Managing risk this week
With several central bank decisions in a few days, spreads can widen and gaps are possible around announcements. Size trades from the stop with the position size calculator and consider smaller size or no new positions just before the main releases. Forexuro trade alerts always include a stop loss; see the XAU/USD gold signals page, and follow the free Telegram channel for updates during the week.
Sources
- CNBC: Gold heads for steep weekly loss as oil prices fuel Fed rate concerns, 23 October 2026 (link)
- GoldPrice.com: gold price close, 23 October 2026
- Morningstar / Dow Jones Market Data: Comex gold settlement, 23 October 2026
- NordFX: Forex and cryptocurrency forecast for 26 to 30 October 2026 (link)
- Newsquawk: Week in Focus, 26 to 30 October 2026, published 23 October 2026 (link)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC target range history, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
Prices are approximate reference levels at the time of writing and will have changed. This is the first weekly edition, refreshed on 25 October 2026 with the closing levels of the week to 23 October; outlooks for other markets: EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · USD/CHF · AUD/USD · USD/CAD · NZD/USD · EUR/GBP.
Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.