USD/CAD weekly outlook: week of 26 October 2026
A sourced look at what could move USD/CAD in a week packed with central bank decisions. Analysis only, not a forecast you can bank on.
Last updated: · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy
Published · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team
Latest outlook: USD/CAD forecast this week always shows the newest edition, with links to every past week.
Analysis, not advice. This outlook describes scenarios based on published news and scheduled events. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it does not guarantee any price, and markets can move in ways no outlook anticipates. Levels quoted from third parties are their analysis, not Forexuro trade signals. Trading carries a high risk of loss; read the risk disclosure.
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- USD/CAD fell 0.95% on the week to 1.4002, after a range of 1.3964 to 1.4127 (Bullquill, Yahoo Finance data).
- Key events: Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report; FOMC decision; US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation.
- Upside scenario and downside scenario below; neither is a prediction.
Where it stands
USD/CAD fell 0.95% on the week to 1.4002, after a range of 1.3964 to 1.4127 (Bullquill, Yahoo Finance data). The Globe and Mail (Reuters) reported that the Canadian dollar reached a five-week high at 1.3969 on Friday and gained about 1% on the week, helped by August retail sales rising 1.2% and oil, with WTI at $103.27 (NordFX). FXStreet counted a seven-day losing streak for USD/CAD. Canada's September CPI was 3.1%, slightly below the 3.2% expected, while the core measures CPI-trim and CPI-median were 1.8% and 1.9% (Newsquawk, HDQ). The policy rate is 2.25%.
Events this week
| When (GMT) | Event |
|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct | UK clocks went back one hour; US clocks change on 1 November, so London and New York are four hours apart this week |
| Mon 26 Oct | German Ifo business climate (October); China's Fifth Plenum runs from 26 to 29 October |
| Tue 27 Oct | FOMC meeting begins; US durable goods orders (September) and consumer confidence (October) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 00:30 GMT | Australia CPI (September and Q3) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 01:00 GMT | RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision |
| Wed 28 Oct, about 12:30 GMT (expected) | UK Autumn Budget and OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook |
| Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 GMT | Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report |
| Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT | FOMC decision; press conference 18:30 GMT |
| Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 GMT | US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation |
| Thu 29 Oct, 13:15 GMT | ECB decision; press conference 13:45 GMT |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo morning | Tokyo CPI (October) |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo midday (no fixed time) | Bank of Japan decision and Outlook Report |
| Fri 30 Oct | German and euro area Q3 GDP; German flash CPI (October) |
| Tue 3 Nov and Thu 5 Nov | Next week: RBA decision and US midterm elections (3 November); Bank of England decision (5 November) |
UK time equals GMT from 25 October. Times are scheduled times from the issuing institutions and market calendars; check before trading. Highlighted rows matter most for USD/CAD. Background: economic events explained and central bank rates.
What matters this week
The Bank of Canada announces on Wednesday at 13:45 GMT with a new Monetary Policy Report, and the Fed follows at 18:00 GMT. In a Reuters poll, 19 of 34 economists expected a hike to 2.50%, and markets priced about an 80% chance (Globe and Mail). Not everyone agrees: TD Securities expects a hold in October and a hike in December (FXStreet). Bullquill noted that Governor Tiff Macklem expects to raise the inflation forecast significantly, so the new projections may matter as much as the decision. Oil prices and the US data on Thursday are the other drivers.
Scenarios
Upside case. A Bank of Canada hold, or a hike with cautious guidance, together with a hawkish Fed or lower oil, could lift USD/CAD back to the 1.4050 to 1.4080 resistance area cited by Interchange Financial, and then 1.4127, last week's high.
Downside case. A hike with hawkish guidance, a less hawkish Fed or further gains in oil could take the pair below 1.3964 towards 1.3950 and 1.3880 (Interchange Financial).
Either can happen, and the first reaction to a release often reverses. Read the USD/CAD guide for the longer term drivers.
Levels in focus
- Resistance: 1.4050 to 1.4080 (Interchange Financial); 1.4127, last week's high (Bullquill)
- Reference: 1.4002 close on 23 October (Bullquill)
- Support: 1.3964, last week's low (Bullquill); 1.3950 and 1.3880 (Interchange Financial)
How USD/CAD usually trades
USD/CAD pairs the US dollar with the Canadian dollar, often called the loonie after the bird on the Canadian one dollar coin. Canada is a major crude oil exporter and the United States is its largest customer, so oil prices have long been one of the main drivers: higher oil tends to support the Canadian dollar, which pushes USD/CAD lower, although the link is not constant and can weaken for long periods.
The two economies are tightly connected through trade, so news about tariffs and US trade policy can move the pair as much as interest rate expectations. The Bank of Canada announces its rate decisions on eight scheduled dates a year, and the gap between its policy and the Federal Reserve's is the other core driver.
Most of the action happens in the North American session. Canadian jobs data is frequently published on the same morning as the US employment report, which can produce sharp two sided moves at 8:30 New York time. Liquidity is thinner in Asian hours. Traders who also follow oil should remember that a view on crude and a position in USD/CAD can be partly the same bet.
Managing risk this week
With several central bank decisions in a few days, spreads can widen and gaps are possible around announcements. Size trades from the stop with the position size calculator and consider smaller size or no new positions just before the main releases. Forexuro trade alerts always include a stop loss; see the forex signals page, and follow the free Telegram channel for updates during the week.
Sources
- Bullquill: Dollar Index This Week, weekly forex brief, 23 October 2026 (Yahoo Finance data) (link)
- The Globe and Mail (Reuters): Canadian dollar market report, 23 October 2026
- Investing.com (Reuters poll): Bank of Canada decision preview, October 2026
- FXStreet: Canadian Dollar extends winning streak as Fed and BoC policy divergence comes into focus, 23 October 2026 (link)
- HDQ: Canada September CPI review, October 2026
- Interchange Financial: USD/CAD levels, October 2026
- NordFX: Forex and cryptocurrency forecast for 26 to 30 October 2026 (link)
- Newsquawk: Week in Focus, 26 to 30 October 2026, published 23 October 2026 (link)
- Bank of Canada: policy interest rate, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC target range history, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
Prices are approximate reference levels at the time of writing and will have changed. This is the first weekly edition, refreshed on 25 October 2026 with the closing levels of the week to 23 October; outlooks for other markets: EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · USD/CHF · AUD/USD · NZD/USD · EUR/GBP · XAU/USD.
Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.