AUD/USD weekly outlook: week of 26 October 2026
A sourced look at what could move AUD/USD in a week packed with central bank decisions. Analysis only, not a forecast you can bank on.
Last updated: · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy
Published · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team
Latest outlook: AUD/USD forecast this week always shows the newest edition, with links to every past week.
Analysis, not advice. This outlook describes scenarios based on published news and scheduled events. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it does not guarantee any price, and markets can move in ways no outlook anticipates. Levels quoted from third parties are their analysis, not Forexuro trade signals. Trading carries a high risk of loss; read the risk disclosure.
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- AUD/USD was the strongest pair in this set last week, rising 1.28% to 0.7038 after a range of 0.6962 to 0.7041 (Bullquill, Yahoo Finance data).
- Key events: Australia CPI (September and Q3); FOMC decision; US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation.
- Upside scenario and downside scenario below; neither is a prediction.
Where it stands
AUD/USD was the strongest pair in this set last week, rising 1.28% to 0.7038 after a range of 0.6962 to 0.7041 (Bullquill, Yahoo Finance data). Bullquill, citing Trading Economics, reported that market odds of an RBA hike in November rose to 64%. Reuters, via Business Recorder, had the Aussie about 1% higher on the week on Friday, with resistance at 0.7040. The RBA cash rate is 4.60% after the hike that took effect on 30 September.
Events this week
| When (GMT) | Event |
|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct | UK clocks went back one hour; US clocks change on 1 November, so London and New York are four hours apart this week |
| Mon 26 Oct | German Ifo business climate (October); China's Fifth Plenum runs from 26 to 29 October |
| Tue 27 Oct | FOMC meeting begins; US durable goods orders (September) and consumer confidence (October) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 00:30 GMT | Australia CPI (September and Q3) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 01:00 GMT | RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision |
| Wed 28 Oct, about 12:30 GMT (expected) | UK Autumn Budget and OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook |
| Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 GMT | Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report |
| Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT | FOMC decision; press conference 18:30 GMT |
| Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 GMT | US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation |
| Thu 29 Oct, 13:15 GMT | ECB decision; press conference 13:45 GMT |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo morning | Tokyo CPI (October) |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo midday (no fixed time) | Bank of Japan decision and Outlook Report |
| Fri 30 Oct | German and euro area Q3 GDP; German flash CPI (October) |
| Tue 3 Nov and Thu 5 Nov | Next week: RBA decision and US midterm elections (3 November); Bank of England decision (5 November) |
UK time equals GMT from 25 October. Times are scheduled times from the issuing institutions and market calendars; check before trading. Highlighted rows matter most for AUD/USD. Background: economic events explained and central bank rates.
What matters this week
Australia's September and Q3 CPI on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT is the main domestic release before the RBA meets on 3 November. Newsquawk said consensus expects trimmed mean inflation of 1% on the quarter, above the RBA's own 0.8% forecast. The RBNZ decision 30 minutes later can move the Aussie through AUD/NZD, and the FOMC follows late on Wednesday.
Scenarios
Upside case. A CPI print above consensus that strengthens the case for a November hike, combined with a softer dollar, could carry AUD/USD through 0.7045; Reuters noted that a break there would open the way to 0.7140.
Downside case. Softer inflation, a hawkish Fed or another sell-off in equities could push the pair back to 0.6962, last week's low, and then the 0.6895 support cited by Reuters.
Either can happen, and the first reaction to a release often reverses. Read the AUD/USD guide for the longer term drivers.
Levels in focus
- Resistance: 0.7040 to 0.7045, then 0.7140 (Reuters via Business Recorder)
- Reference: 0.7038 close on 23 October (Bullquill)
- Support: 0.6962, last week's low (Bullquill); 0.6895 (Reuters via Business Recorder)
How AUD/USD usually trades
The Australian dollar is often described as a commodity currency. Australia is a large exporter of iron ore, coal and natural gas, and China is its biggest customer, so Chinese growth data, metal prices and news about Chinese demand regularly move AUD/USD. The currency also tends to rise when global investors are willing to take risk and to fall when they are not, which links it loosely with stock markets.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has met eight times a year since 2024, and its decisions, statements and quarterly economic forecasts set the domestic side of the rate story. Australian monthly labour force data and inflation figures are the local releases that tend to matter most.
Unlike most dollar pairs, AUD/USD is genuinely active in the Asian session, when Australian and Chinese data are published, as well as in London and New York. It often moves in the same direction as NZD/USD, because both economies are exposed to Asia and commodities, so treat positions in the two as partly the same trade. The correlation calculator can show how close they have been recently.
Managing risk this week
With several central bank decisions in a few days, spreads can widen and gaps are possible around announcements. Size trades from the stop with the position size calculator and consider smaller size or no new positions just before the main releases. Forexuro trade alerts always include a stop loss; see the forex signals page, and follow the free Telegram channel for updates during the week.
Sources
- Bullquill: Dollar Index This Week, weekly forex brief, 23 October 2026 (Yahoo Finance data) (link)
- Business Recorder (Reuters): Australian and New Zealand dollars, 23 October 2026 (link)
- Business Recorder (Reuters): New Zealand CPI and Antipodean currencies, October 2026 (link)
- Newsquawk: Week in Focus, 26 to 30 October 2026, published 23 October 2026 (link)
- RBA: cash rate target, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC target range history, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
Prices are approximate reference levels at the time of writing and will have changed. This is the first weekly edition, refreshed on 25 October 2026 with the closing levels of the week to 23 October; outlooks for other markets: EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · USD/CHF · USD/CAD · NZD/USD · EUR/GBP · XAU/USD.
Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.