UK inflation reached 3.5% in September: where forecasters see it by the end of 2026, and what the 18 November release means for the pound
Gold signals explained: how our gold signals work · every closed gold signal
The UK CPI forecast 2026 picture has shifted up: independent forecasters now average 3.6% for the final quarter of the year, after inflation rose to 3.5% in September. The Bank of England expects more to come, with CPI near 5% by the middle of 2027, which is why it raised Bank Rate to 4% this week.
This guide covers the path of UK inflation in 2026, what forecasters and the Bank expect, the next release dates in UK time, and what a pound move is worth in GBP. Pound levels appear in the free Forexuro Telegram channel on most trading days.
Free on Telegram. GBP/USD and EUR/GBP levels around UK data, with entry, stop and three targets.
UK inflation in 2026 so far
CPI started the year at 3.0%, rose to 3.3% in March, then eased to 2.6% in June. It has risen for three months since, to 2.9% in July, 3.1% in August and 3.5% in September, the highest in almost a year. The Office for National Statistics said motor fuel prices rose 29.8% in the year to September, the fastest since August 2022. Core CPI, without energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, was 2.8%.
The gap between headline and core shows that energy is doing most of the work. The UK CPI event page lists every reading, and our guide to inflation data explains how markets read each measure.
UK CPI forecast 2026 and 2027: the numbers
| Source | Forecast | Period |
|---|---|---|
| HM Treasury comparison, October average | 3.6% (range 3.3% to 3.9%) | Q4 2026 |
| HM Treasury comparison, October average | 2.5% | Q4 2027 |
| Bank of England, November | Around 5% | Middle of 2027 |
The Treasury figures are averages of independent forecasts gathered between 9 and 16 October, before the Bank's November report. The Bank's own path is higher, because it expects energy bills to keep feeding through into the first half of next year before inflation falls as those effects fade. The next Treasury comparison is due on 18 November, the same day as the October CPI figures.
Dates and what they mean for the pound
October CPI comes out on Wednesday 18 November at 07:00 UK time (08:00 CET, 2:00am ET). November CPI follows on Wednesday 16 December, the day before the next Bank of England decision on Thursday 17 December at 12:00. A reading above 3.5% would support the case for another rise in December and tend to help sterling; a softer figure would ease that pressure.
Our guide to what moves the gold price explains why UK and US inflation also matter for gold, and you can follow gold in pounds on the gold price in GBP page.
What a GBP/USD target is worth in pounds
On a standard lot of GBP/USD one pip is worth $10, which is about £7.48 at a rate of 1.3361. On 26 October our desk posted a GBP/USD sell at 1.3347 with targets at 1.3327, 1.3301 and 1.3285. The third target was reached for +62 pips, about £464 on one standard lot or about £46 on a mini lot. The GBP/USD pip value calculator does the sum for any size.
Our page for UK traders explains how one position is closed in parts at the three targets, and every closed pound trade is on the GBP/USD signal results page. Session levels are on GBP/USD today.
Follow UK data with Forexuro
The free Forexuro Telegram channel posts free signals every trading day, usually between about 05:00 and 15:00 UK time, each with an entry, a stop and three targets. VIP is £99 a month or £549 one time for more signals and live management. Trading carries risk, and past results are not a reliable guide to future results.
Official sources
Primary reference pages from regulators, central banks and official bodies on the topics in this article.
- Office for National Statistics, consumer price inflation
- HM Treasury, forecasts for the UK economy
- Bank of England, Monetary Policy Summary, November 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the UK CPI forecast for the end of 2026?
The average independent forecast in HM Treasury's October comparison is 3.6% for the fourth quarter of 2026, within a range of 3.3% to 3.9%.
What was UK inflation in September 2026?
3.5%, up from 3.1% in August. Core CPI was 2.8%.
When is the next UK CPI release?
Wednesday 18 November 2026 at 07:00 UK time, covering October.
What does the Bank of England expect for inflation?
Around 5% by the middle of 2027, before it falls back as the energy effect fades.
Keep reading
UK CPI event page · Forex signals for UK traders · GBP/USD signal results · Economic calendar