October CPI on November 10: what forecasts show after a 165,000 jobs beat, and what it means for gold and the dollar
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The next US CPI data come out on Tuesday, November 10 at 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET), and forecasts point to a calmer month than September. After Friday's payrolls beat lifted the odds of a December Fed rate increase to about 80%, the inflation print decides whether those odds hold.
This preview covers the September numbers, what forecasters expect for October, the one quirk in this release, and how a US trader can follow a gold move with futures. Gold and dollar levels appear in the free Forexuro Telegram channel on most trading days.
Free on Telegram. Gold and dollar levels before and after CPI, with entry, stop and three targets.
What the US CPI data showed in September
Consumer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in September, lifting the annual rate to 3.7% from 3.4% in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on October 14. Gasoline rose 9.1% on the month and made up about half of the increase. Core CPI, which leaves out food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year, one tenth above forecasts on both measures.
The annual rate has stayed between 3.3% and 4.2% since March, when the energy shock first fed into prices. Our US CPI event page lists every reading, and our guide to inflation data explains how headline and core differ.
What forecasters expect for October
Continuum Economics expects headline and core CPI to rise 0.2% in October, because gasoline rose only slightly during the month. TD Securities sees a 0.30% rise in the headline and 0.21% in the core. RBC Economics is more cautious, at 0.3% for both, and sees the energy spillover into other prices as only starting.
One detail matters for anyone reading the headlines on Tuesday. October 2025 prices were never collected during the government shutdown, so the release will not show an annual rate for October. The monthly numbers, and core in particular, carry the weight this time. Our US CPI release dates guide lists the next prints, starting with December 10.
How CPI could move the Fed odds, gold and the dollar
| Event | UK time (ET) | Where it stands |
|---|---|---|
| October CPI | Tue, November 10, 13:30 (8:30am) | Forecasts 0.2% to 0.3% on the month |
| Fed decision | Wed, December 9, 19:00 (2pm) | About 80% priced for a quarter point increase |
| November payrolls | Fri, December 4, 13:30 (8:30am) | October rose 165,000 |
The Fed's target range is 3.75% to 4.00%. A core reading at or above 0.3% would support a December increase and tend to lift yields and the dollar, which usually weighs on gold. A 0.2% core or lower would give the Fed room to wait and could pull the dollar back. Our guide to what moves the gold price explains the link with real yields.
Following a gold move with futures, in dollars
Many US traders follow gold through COMEX futures: the full GC contract covers 100 ounces and Micro Gold (MGC) covers 10 ounces. On November 5 our desk posted a gold sell at $4,125 with targets at $4,120, $4,100 and $4,075. The third target was reached, a $50 move per ounce, which is $500 on one MGC contract and $5,000 on one GC contract.
With three MGC contracts, a trader can close one at each target: $50 at the first, $250 at the second and $500 at the third, $800 in total. The gold pip value calculator converts any stop into dollars, and our page for US traders shows how the partial closes work. Every closed gold trade is on the gold signal results page.
Follow CPI day with Forexuro
The free Forexuro Telegram channel posts free signals every trading day, usually between about 05:00 and 15:00 UK time, each with an entry, a stop and three targets. VIP is £99 a month or £549 one time for more signals and live management. Trading carries risk, and past results are not a reliable guide to future results.
Official sources
Primary reference pages from regulators, central banks and official bodies on the topics in this article.
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI release schedule
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index data
- Federal Reserve, FOMC meeting calendar
Frequently asked questions
When is the next US CPI release?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 8:30am ET, which is 13:30 UK time. It covers October.
What was US CPI in September 2026?
3.7% on the year and 0.6% on the month. Core CPI was 2.6% on the year and 0.3% on the month.
Why is there no annual CPI rate for October 2026?
October 2025 prices were never collected during the government shutdown, so there is no base month to compare against.
What is expected for October CPI?
Continuum Economics expects 0.2% for headline and core; TD Securities expects 0.30% for the headline and 0.21% for the core.
Keep reading
US CPI event page · Forex signals for US traders · Gold signal results · Economic calendar