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Free on Telegram. Follow our USD/JPY levels near 158 in the free Forexuro channel through Friday's US jobs report.
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- USD/JPY rose 74 pips on the week to 157.57 and traded as high as 158.23 on Wednesday.
- With no Japanese event in the calendar, US payrolls on Friday are the key release for the pair.
- Speculators added 31,713 contracts to their yen long, the biggest weekly change among the major currencies in the latest COT report.
Where it stands
The dollar gained on the yen for most of the week. From 156.75 on Monday 26 October at 03:00 UK time, the pair climbed to 158.23 on Wednesday evening, then eased back to close Friday at 157.57, up from 156.83 a week earlier. The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at around 1.25% on 30 October by an 8 to 1 vote, a month after raising it on 24 September.
The wider context is a pair near the top of its range. Converted from ECB fixings, USD/JPY ranged from 153.27 to 160.24 since 31 July, and its largest single day move in that period was 358 pips on 3 September. That puts the 160 area at the top of the three month range, so traders watch it closely.
Events this week
- Friday 6 November, 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET): US nonfarm payrolls for October. USD/JPY tends to follow US yields, and September's 29,000 jobs left the market sensitive to any rebound in hiring.
- Thursday 5 November, 12:00 UK time (7:00am ET): Bank of England decision. It can lift volatility across the dollar during London hours, though the direct effect on the yen is small.
- Wednesday 4 November, 10:00 UK time (5:00am ET): euro area flash inflation. Euro moves feed into the dollar index and from there into USD/JPY.
What matters this week
The big shift is in positioning. In the 27 October COT report, non commercial traders were net long 101,591 yen futures contracts, up 31,713 in one week. That puts our three year COT index at 79 out of 100. Speculators are betting on the yen even as the pair rises, a tension that tends to resolve quickly when US data disappoints. The weekly yen data are on our COT reports hub.
The rate gap still favours the dollar: the Fed's range is 3.75% to 4.00% against around 1.25% in Japan. With US inflation at 3.7% in September, the Fed has little reason to narrow that gap soon.
Scenarios
Upside scenario. Strong payrolls and firm wages would push US yields up and could carry USD/JPY through 158.23, last week's high, towards 160.00, the round number just under the three month high of 160.24.
Downside scenario. A weak jobs report would meet a crowd of fresh yen longs. A slide through 156.75 would erase last week's gains and point to 156.00.
Levels in focus
Range to watch: 156.83 to 158.31, half of last week's range either side of 157.57.
- Resistance 160.00: round number just below the three month fixing high of 160.24.
- Resistance 158.23: Wednesday's high in our feed.
- Support 156.75: Monday's low, the bottom of last week's range.
- Support 156.00: the next round number below.
Our record
Our USD/JPY record includes buys at this very level. On 5 January 2026 the desk bought USD/JPY at 156.77 with a stop at 155.77 and targets at 156.97, 157.29 and 157.77; the trade closed at the third target for 100 pips. All closed USD/JPY signals are on the USD/JPY results page, and daily levels are on USD/JPY today.
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Sources
- Bank of Japan: monetary policy meetings (link)
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation schedule (link)
- ECB: euro foreign exchange reference rates (link)
- CFTC: Commitments of Traders, report of 27 October 2026 (link)
- Forexuro COT reports
- Forexuro signal record (CSV)
Prices are approximate and will have changed since the Friday close. See also: US payrolls event guide.
Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.