Bank of England on 5 November: a first rise since 2023 is priced, the guidance is not
Gold signals explained: how our gold signals work · every closed gold signal
The consensus BoE rate decision prediction for Thursday 5 November is a quarter point rise in Bank Rate to 4.0% from 3.75%, announced at 12:00 UK time (7:00am ET). It would be the Bank's first rise since August 2023, and markets have priced it almost fully, so sterling will trade on the vote and the guidance.
This preview covers why the Bank is set to act, what is priced, the scenarios for GBP/USD and what our own sterling record shows. The free Forexuro Telegram channel posts GBP/USD levels on trading days.
Free on Telegram. See how Forexuro trades GBP/USD around the Bank of England, with entry, stop and three targets.
Why the Bank is expected to raise rates
UK CPI inflation rose to 3.5% in September from 3.1% in August, its highest in 11 months, with higher petrol and diesel prices linked to the Iran conflict doing most of the damage, IG said. Services inflation climbed to 3.7% from 3.4%. The Bank's own Decision Maker Panel showed firms expecting prices to rise 3.3% over the next year, and 68% of firms planning to raise their own prices.
Governor Andrew Bailey has said the Bank cannot wait for conclusive proof of second round effects on wages and prices, Reuters reported. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6 to 3 to hold in September. Our inflation data guide explains why services inflation worries central banks most.
BoE rate decision prediction: the vote and the guidance
The Reuters poll pointed to a 7 to 2 vote, with external members Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra seen as the most likely to vote for no change. Markets priced three to four more quarter point rises in 2027, which would take Bank Rate to between 4.75% and 5.0%, and Reuters said even the more hawkish members may baulk at endorsing that path.
| Outcome at 12:00 UK time | What it would mean | Likely first move in GBP/USD |
|---|---|---|
| Rise to 4.0%, guidance open to more | Market path broadly confirmed | Firmer pound |
| Rise to 4.0%, push back on 2027 pricing | A cautious, one off rise | Softer pound after the headline |
| Hold at 3.75% | A major surprise against a 96.7% priced rise | Sharp fall in the pound |
The Monetary Policy Report arrives with the decision and will show new forecasts for inflation and growth. Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks to businesses on Friday 6 November, IG noted, which can add to the reaction. The history of every change is on the Bank of England rate decision page, and our list of BoE decision dates for 2026 and 2027 has the full timetable.
GBP/USD going into Thursday
GBP/USD traded near 1.3424 in early London trade on Tuesday on our feed, after a four day rise that, an Investing.com note said, paused as the dollar steadied before the US midterm vote. Friday's US payrolls at 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET) come only a day after the Bank, so sterling can face two big moves in two sessions.
Check levels on GBP/USD today before noon, and size the stop in money with the GBP/USD pip value calculator. On a 0.10 lot GBP/USD position a pip is worth $1, which at 1.3424 is about £0.74.
Our GBP/USD record in recent weeks
Two winning examples from our record: on 21 October 2026 Forexuro posted a GBP/USD sell at 1.3387 with a stop at 1.3451, and the third target at 1.3315 was hit for +72 pips. On 22 October a sell at 1.3373 reached the third target at 1.3305 for +68 pips. On a 0.10 lot the first trade was worth $72, about £53.64 at Tuesday's rate.
Every closed sterling trade, wins and losses alike, is on the GBP/USD signal results page. Our guide to the take profit ladder shows how closing part of a trade at each target helps on fast decision days.
Follow the decision with Forexuro
The free Forexuro Telegram channel posts free signals every trading day, usually between about 05:00 and 15:00 UK time, each with an entry, a stop and three targets. VIP is £99 a month or £549 one time for more signals and live management. Trading carries risk, and past results are not a reliable guide to future results.
Official sources
Primary reference pages from regulators, central banks and official bodies on the topics in this article.
- Bank of England MPC dates, decision timetable
- Bank of England Bank Rate, current rate and history
- Office for National Statistics inflation, UK CPI
Frequently asked questions
What time is the Bank of England decision on 5 November 2026?
12:00 UK time, which is 7:00am ET, with the minutes and the Monetary Policy Report at the same time.
What do economists expect?
A rise in Bank Rate to 4.0% from 3.75%, according to a Reuters poll, with a 7 to 2 vote.
What is UK inflation now?
UK CPI inflation was 3.5% in September 2026, up from 3.1% in August.
Keep reading
Bank of England rate decision · GBP/USD signal results · GBP/USD today · Economic calendar