The Bank of England raises Bank Rate to 4% by 8 votes to 1: what changed for the pound and what comes next
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The BoE rate decision on 5 November 2026 lifted Bank Rate by a quarter point to 4%, the first rise in more than three years. Eight of the nine members voted for 4%, and the one dissenter wanted 4.25%, which told markets the Bank leans towards doing more rather than less.
This page sets out the vote, the Bank's reasons, how gilts and the pound reacted, the next dates in UK time, and what a GBP/USD move is worth in pounds. Pound and gold levels appear in the free Forexuro Telegram channel on most trading days.
Free on Telegram. GBP/USD and gold levels around Bank of England days, with entry, stop and three targets.
The vote and the Bank's reasons
Andrew Bailey, Sarah Breeden, Swati Dhingra, Megan Greene, Clare Lombardelli, Huw Pill, Dave Ramsden and Alan Taylor voted to raise Bank Rate to 4%. Catherine Mann preferred 4.25%, arguing that a more active approach was needed to stop persistent inflation from taking hold. A Reuters poll had expected the dissent to come from a member wanting to hold, not from one asking for more.
The Bank said the conflict in the Middle East is in its ninth month and energy prices have kept rising. UK CPI inflation reached 3.5% in September and is now expected to rise to around 5% by the middle of next year before falling back. Activity data have been stronger than expected. The Committee said policy is not on a pre set path and that it will watch pay, pricing and spare capacity at each meeting.
BoE rate decision: what Bailey signalled next
Governor Andrew Bailey said the rise should not be read as the first in a long sequence, but added that unless the conflict is resolved it did not seem likely to be the last, the BBC reported. Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli said there was likely to be a case for a further rise in the near term without evidence of weaker inflation pressure.
Markets moved in the same direction. Traders raised bets to about 76 basis points of further tightening by the end of 2027, from about 67 before the decision, and gilt yields rose, Reuters reported. Our BoE preview set out the options before the meeting, and the central banks table shows where the BoE now sits against the Fed and the ECB.
What the pound did around the decision
Sterling had risen for seven straight sessions into the meeting and touched $1.35025 on 4 November, its highest since 15 September. After the decision, US payrolls took over: the dollar index rose 0.7% on Friday after a 165,000 jobs beat, and GBP/USD traded near 1.3366 on our feed on Friday afternoon, down about 0.6% from Thursday's close near 1.3448.
That is a common pattern on BoE weeks: the decision sets the tone, but US data often drive the next leg. Our study of GBP/USD on BoE rate change days shows how our signals have handled these sessions.
A GBP/USD target in pounds
On a standard lot of GBP/USD one pip is worth $10, which is about £7.48 at Friday's rate of 1.3361. On 3 November our desk posted a GBP/USD buy at 1.3425 with targets at 1.3445, 1.3471 and 1.3495. The third target was reached for +70 pips, about £524 on one standard lot and about £52 on a mini lot. The GBP/USD pip value calculator works it out for any size, and the page for UK traders explains how the three targets work as partial closes.
The next dates are UK GDP for September on Thursday 12 November at 07:00 UK time, UK CPI for October on Wednesday 18 November at 07:00, and the next BoE decision on Thursday 17 December at 12:00. Every closed pound trade is on the GBP/USD signal results page.
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Official sources
Primary reference pages from regulators, central banks and official bodies on the topics in this article.
- Bank of England, Monetary Policy Summary and minutes, November 2026
- Bank of England, upcoming MPC dates
- Office for National Statistics, release calendar for UK CPI and GDP
Frequently asked questions
What did the Bank of England decide in November 2026?
It raised Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4% on 5 November 2026, by 8 votes to 1. One member voted for 4.25%.
Why did the BoE raise rates?
Energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict pushed UK CPI to 3.5% in September, and the Bank expects around 5% by the middle of next year.
When does the BoE decide next?
Thursday 17 December 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Will the BoE raise rates again?
The Bank said policy is not on a pre set path. Governor Bailey said the rise was unlikely to be the last unless the conflict is resolved.
Keep reading
Bank of England decision page · GBP/USD today · GBP/USD signal results · Economic calendar