Saudi Arabia intercepts a Houthi barrage as Yanbu pipeline claims hang over oil
Saudi Arabia spent Sunday intercepting Houthi fire over Riyadh and the south of the kingdom, a day after the group claimed strikes on Aramco's Yanbu facilities, the Rabigh refinery and the East-West Pipeline. None of those claims had been confirmed by Saudi officials by Sunday afternoon, and oil traders now face the futures reopening without knowing whether the kingdom's main export route was touched.
This report sets out what has been confirmed, what has only been claimed, why the pipeline matters so much more than the airports and air bases on the Houthi target list, and where gold and the main currency pairs stand going into the first prices of the week. We will post short updates once trading resumes on our free Forexuro Telegram channel.
Free on Telegram. Get our first read on oil, gold and the yen after the Sunday evening reopening on the Forexuro channel.
What Saudi Arabia intercepted on Sunday
According to the Saudi-led coalition, air defences destroyed ten ballistic missiles launched towards the southern region of the kingdom on Sunday. The coalition also reported intercepting a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh, where explosions were heard, and destroying drones heading for the capital. A separate statement said a cruise missile launched towards Khamis Mushait, in the south west, was intercepted, as reported by Al Jazeera, CNBC and The National.
Saudi Civil Defence issued alerts through its National Early Warning Platform for Abha and Khamis Mushait, the second for Khamis Mushait that morning, before saying the danger had passed. No casualties from Sunday's attacks had been reported at the time of writing. The volume of fire is the notable point: in a single morning the coalition described more than a dozen launches against Saudi territory.
Saturday's claims: Yanbu, Rabigh and the pipeline
The bigger question for markets comes from Saturday. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree listed Aramco facilities in Yanbu, the Rabigh refinery, crude pumping stations and the East-West Pipeline among the group's targets, along with airports in Riyadh, Dammam and Najran and the Khamis Mushait airbase, according to reporting by France 24 and Reuters summarised by FinanceFeeds.
The coalition said its defences destroyed two ballistic missiles fired towards Yanbu and Taif, and The National reported that debris from those interceptions fell in Makkah, Jeddah, Taif and Rabigh. Neither the coalition nor Aramco has reported damage to any oil facility. That leaves two readings open: the attack failed, or something was hit and has not yet been disclosed. Until there is an Aramco statement, a loading notice or clear imagery, any price move built on the claim rests on an unverified headline.
Why the East-West Pipeline matters to Brent
The East-West Pipeline runs about 1,200 kilometres from Abqaiq in the east of the kingdom to Yanbu on the Red Sea. Since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in July, it has become Saudi Arabia's main export route, and Aramco's chief executive has put its throughput near 7 million barrels a day, according to Reuters reporting cited by FinanceFeeds.
That is why a claim against the pipeline or its pumping stations carries more weight than one against an airport. Airports and air bases are not barrels. A pipeline that carries the oil which used to leave through Hormuz is, and any outage would remove supply from a market that has already been pushed above $115 a barrel by the war.
The September precedent
Traders do not need to guess what a successful strike looks like, because it has already happened once this autumn. In September a Houthi drone attack shut the line, Aramco suspended Yanbu loadings from 15 September and late September cargoes for European term buyers were cancelled before flows resumed, according to Reuters and OilPrice.com as cited by FinanceFeeds.
The chart shows US crude rather than Brent because the Yahoo Finance Brent series switches contract months in a way that distorts a long chart. WTI settled at $103.27 on Friday, up 3.8% on the day. The shape is what matters: the September disruption came during a rally that has taken US crude from below $70 in July to above $100 again.
Where oil closed before the weekend
Brent futures settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday 23 October, up $3.55 or 3.14%. It was the highest settlement since 29 April and left Brent about 6% higher on the week, according to Reuters figures reported by FinanceFeeds. That price was set before Saturday's pipeline claims and before Sunday's interceptions.
FinanceFeeds framed $120 and $108 as the reference levels for the coming week: confirmed damage at Yanbu or a US strike on Iran would push towards the upper level, while no evidence of damage, more reserve releases and a hawkish Fed would point to the lower one. Those are scenario markers from one outlet, not forecasts, but they show how wide the plausible range is. Futures reopen at 6pm New York time on Sunday, which is 10pm in London now that UK clocks have gone back.
Riyadh airport reopens under threat
King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh reopened two terminals on Sunday, about two weeks after a Houthi missile attack that killed 13 people and injured more than 300, The National reported. Terminal 1 is handling domestic flights and Terminal 2 international flights.
The reopening came with a warning. The Houthis' spokesman said the airport remained a military target and that the group would continue operations against it. For markets this matters less as an aviation story than as a sign that the conflict is not winding down. Each attempted strike on the capital raises the chance of a wider response, and a wider response is the scenario energy traders fear most.
Washington raises its guard
On Saturday the US warned its citizens against travelling to Saudi Arabia and 11 other countries in the region, citing terrorism, armed conflict and the risk of drone and missile attacks by Iran and the Houthis, according to The National. The advisory for Saudi Arabia said Houthi attacks have the potential to escalate rapidly beyond the immediate area.
FinanceFeeds, citing Reuters, also reported that the State Department ordered non emergency staff and their families out of its Saudi missions. Taken together, these steps tell you how seriously Washington views the next few days. They do not tell you whether the US will strike Iran, and no such strike had been reported by Sunday afternoon.
Gold under $4,000 and below its averages
Gold goes into the reopening on the back foot. Spot gold ended Friday at about $3,998 an ounce, below $4,000 for the first time since mid July, according to CNBC, and December futures settled at $4,007.90. The metal has struggled even as the war has intensified, because higher oil has lifted inflation worries and with them the expected path of interest rates.
On our calculation from Yahoo Finance data, Friday's futures close was about $334 below the 50 day average and about $525 below the 200 day average, and it was the lowest close since 16 July. The 50 day line has been below the 200 day line since early July. That is a market in a downtrend into a busy week, not a safe haven being bid. For the levels we are watching, read our gold outlook for the week of 26 October, and the glossary entry on price gaps explains why weekend news can move gold sharply at the open.
The yen, the euro and the pound at Friday's close
Currency markets closed with smaller moves than commodities. On Yahoo Finance daily data, EUR/USD ended Friday at about 1.1204 and USD/JPY at about 156.81, after touching 156.07 during the session, its lowest level of the month. GBP/USD was trading near 1.3375. The dollar index closed at about 101.81, almost unchanged on the week.
The yen is worth watching closely. Japan is a large energy importer, so higher oil worsens its trade balance, yet the currency has firmed this month as Tokyo has repeated warnings about intervention ahead of the Bank of Japan decision on 30 October. Our USD/JPY signals guide on USD/JPY covers how those two forces interact.
Supply responses that cushion the shock
Several governments are trying to offset the lost barrels. According to Reuters reporting summarised by FinanceFeeds, the US Energy Department authorised an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for a refinery in Louisiana, Germany's stockpiling agency tendered fuel and crude from strategic reserves, and the first Russian diesel cargo under this month's export deal is heading to New York.
These amounts are small next to a pipeline that can carry around 7 million barrels a day. Their importance is political: they show consumer governments are willing to act if prices keep rising. For traders, it means any spike on confirmed damage could meet official selling sooner than in a normal supply shock.
The week's calendar after the reopening
The oil story now runs straight into a crowded calendar. Wednesday 28 October brings rate decisions in Washington, Ottawa and Wellington, on the same day as the UK Autumn Budget. The European Central Bank follows on Thursday 29 October, along with US third quarter GDP and September PCE inflation, and the Bank of Japan ends the run on Friday 30 October. Our central banks page lists the schedule for each bank.
The clock change adds a practical wrinkle. UK clocks went back on 25 October and US clocks change on 1 November, which leaves New York only four hours behind London for one week instead of the usual five. US data and the Fed statement will arrive an hour earlier than usual for UK traders.
Checklist before the first prices of the week
- Search for any Aramco statement or loading notice on Yanbu before you trade oil or the commodity currencies.
- Note Friday's closes on gold, Brent, USD/JPY and USD/CAD so you can measure any opening gap.
- Check whether pending orders sit close to Friday's levels and could be filled at a worse price.
- Recalculate position size if you need wider stops in a headline driven market.
- Mark the Fed, ECB and BoJ decisions in UK time, allowing for the one week clock gap.
- Decide now which positions you will carry through Wednesday's decisions and which you will close.
What this means for signal traders
Unconfirmed headlines are the hardest kind of news to trade, because the first move can reverse as soon as the facts arrive. The disciplined response is to trade smaller, to place stops where the idea is wrong rather than where the loss feels comfortable, and to let the position size calculator turn that stop distance into a lot size.
Traders who prefer ready built plans can look at how Forexuro trade signals are written: every ticket names its entry, its stop and three profit levels, and every closed trade, winning or losing, goes on the results board. With more than 10 years of trading experience behind the desk, we will post the levels we care about for this reopening on the Forexuro Telegram channel. If you want to read the charts yourself, The Chart Patterns Playbook explains how gaps and breakouts behave after news like this.
Official sources
Official pages for the decisions, data and schedules behind this report.
- US Energy Information Administration: petroleum and other liquids, official US oil inventory, production and price data.
- Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendars, scheduled rate decision dates, statements and minutes.
- Bank of Japan: monetary policy meetings, the meeting schedule, statements and minutes.
Frequently asked questions
Did the Houthis hit the Yanbu oil facilities?
There is no confirmation. The Houthis claimed strikes on Aramco facilities in Yanbu, the Rabigh refinery and the East-West Pipeline on Saturday 24 October. The Saudi-led coalition said two ballistic missiles aimed at Yanbu and Taif were intercepted, and neither the coalition nor Aramco had reported damage by Sunday afternoon.
What did Saudi Arabia intercept on Sunday 25 October?
The coalition said it destroyed ten ballistic missiles fired towards the south of the kingdom, a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh, drones heading for the capital and a cruise missile launched towards Khamis Mushait, according to Al Jazeera, CNBC and The National.
Why is the East-West Pipeline so important for oil prices?
Since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in July, the pipeline from Abqaiq to Yanbu has been Saudi Arabia's main export route, with throughput near 7 million barrels a day according to Aramco's chief executive. In September a drone attack halted Yanbu loadings from 15 September.
Where did Brent and gold close on Friday?
Brent settled at $116.72 a barrel, its highest settlement since 29 April, according to Reuters. Spot gold ended near $3,998 an ounce, below $4,000 for the first time since mid July, according to CNBC, with December gold futures settling at $4,007.90.
When do markets reopen after the weekend?
Oil futures reopen at 6pm New York time on Sunday, which is 10pm in London after the UK clock change. Forex trading resumes in Asia on Sunday evening UK time, so weekend news is priced in one go and can create gaps.
Sources
- Al Jazeera: Saudi Arabia intercepts missiles and drones as fighting with Houthis rages
- CNBC: Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi missiles, drones
- The National: Saudi Arabia intercepts barrage of Houthi missiles and drones
- FinanceFeeds: Brent crude at $116.72 into the Sunday futures open, citing Reuters
- CNBC: Gold heads for steep weekly loss as oil prices fuel Fed rate concerns
- Anadolu Agency: Gold falls below $4,000 for first time since July
- Data for the charts: Yahoo Finance (GC=F and CL=F daily closes); currency closes from Yahoo Finance (EURUSD=X, USDJPY=X, GBPUSD=X, DX-Y.NYB).
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