Hormuz mine reports and five central bank decisions set up a tense week ahead
Forex and gold markets are shut for the weekend, but the news has not stopped. Iran's Revolutionary Guard says two supertankers hit naval mines near the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi forces intercepted Houthi missiles aimed at the oil port of Yanbu, and traders head into a week with five central bank decisions, the UK budget and US inflation data packed into four days.
Free on Telegram. Get our short previews before each central bank decision next week on the Forexuro channel.
Friday's close left a clear picture. Gold fell about 4% on the week, Brent crude rose more than 6% to settle at $116.72, and the commodity currencies outperformed while the dollar index finished almost exactly where it started. With markets closed until Sunday evening, UK time, everything that happens over the weekend will be priced in one go when trading resumes. That is why this preview starts with the weekend headlines before turning to the calendar.
We post short updates on the reopening and on each decision during the week on our free Forexuro Telegram channel, including the levels we are watching before the numbers land.
How the week closed across the majors
The chart below shows the change in Friday's close against the previous Friday's close for gold, Brent, the dollar index and the main pairs. It is a useful starting point because it shows which markets are carrying momentum into a heavy week, and which are sitting still.
On these closes, gold futures ended at about $4,008 after $4,181 a week earlier, a fall of roughly 4.1%. Brent rose from $109.86 to $116.72. The dollar index was flat at about 101.8, and EUR/USD barely moved, near 1.120. The bigger moves were elsewhere: AUD/USD gained about 1.5% to around 0.702, NZD/USD rose about 1.1%, and USD/CAD fell about 1.3% to near 1.400 as the Canadian dollar strengthened. USD/JPY slipped about 0.8% to around 156.8, and GBP/USD added about 0.8% to near 1.3375.
Two things stand out. First, a flat dollar index hid large moves underneath it, with commodity linked currencies gaining while gold lost ground. Second, the currencies that rose the most belong to central banks that markets now expect to raise rates soon, which links neatly to next week's calendar.
Weekend headlines: mines, missiles and warnings
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said two supertankers that tried to use what it called an unauthorised southern route through the Strait of Hormuz struck naval mines on Friday. According to the statement reported by Gulf News, the explosions disabled the ships' engine rooms, the crews abandoned the vessels, and the two tankers were carrying more than 4.5 million barrels of crude between them. The Straits Daily Brief noted that no maritime authority had confirmed the incident when it published on Saturday.
In Saudi Arabia, the Saudi led coalition said it intercepted two missiles fired by the Houthis towards Taif and Yanbu. Yanbu is the Red Sea export hub that has allowed Riyadh to ship much of its crude while the Strait of Hormuz is blockaded, so attacks on it matter directly for supply. CBS News reported that Saudi Aramco says flows through its East-West pipeline, which bypasses Hormuz, have risen to about 7 million barrels a day. Houthi media also reported Saudi airstrikes on Sanaa and Mocha on Saturday.
The National reported that the US has issued travel advisories for 13 Middle East countries and that US envoy Barrack suggested strikes on Iran were possible this weekend, while an Iranian commander warned that US warships would not be allowed into the Gulf. None of this has been priced yet, because it arrived after Friday's close.
Why Sunday's reopening matters for oil and gold
Brent's settlement of $116.72 on Friday was its highest since late April, according to the Capital Street FX weekly commodity report. The Straits Daily Brief, citing IMF PortWatch data, said only four vessels passed through Hormuz on 18 October, against a pre crisis average of about 85 a day. In other words, the market was already pricing a near closed strait before the weekend's reports.
For gold the link has been counter intuitive. Higher oil has fed inflation worries and pushed up expectations for interest rates, and that has weighed on a metal that pays no yield. The Kitco PM report on Friday described strong US business activity and rising consumer inflation expectations as extra pressure. If the weekend headlines lift oil again on Sunday evening, the first reaction in gold could just as easily be lower as higher. The guide to slippage, gaps and weekend risk explains why orders can be filled away from their set price at the open.
Fed on Wednesday: a hold with a tightening bias
The Federal Reserve announces its decision on Wednesday 28 October. A Reuters poll cited by Newsquawk found that 94 of 100 economists expect rates to stay at 3.75% to 4.00%, after the 25 basis point rise in September that Chair Kevin Warsh described as "removing a dose of accommodation". CME pricing implied only about a 10% chance of a hike at this meeting. The Capital Street FX report put the odds of a December hike at roughly 85% to 90%.
Since a hold is widely expected, the statement, the vote split and the press conference carry the risk. Newsquawk noted that three officials, Hammack, Logan and Kashkari, voted for a hike in July and may dissent again. Pimco said it expects a hold with a clear tightening bias and a December hike. The Fed also decides before Thursday's PCE inflation data, so it will set its tone without that report. Our FOMC rate decision guide explains how the statement and press conference are usually read.
Bank of Canada and RBNZ: the likely movers
Two smaller central banks may actually change rates on Wednesday. Newsquawk said markets price about an 80% chance that the Bank of Canada raises rates by 25 basis points from 2.25%, even though September CPI came in softer than expected at 3.1%. Governor Tiff Macklem has warned that the longer energy prices stay high, the harder they are to look through. The Canadian dollar's rally last week, which took USD/CAD from about 1.419 to about 1.400, partly reflects those expectations and partly higher oil.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to lift its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%, with markets pricing a roughly 75% to 80% chance. The decision is less certain than it was, because third quarter CPI came in at 3.7%, a touch below forecasts. ANZ, BNZ and ASB expect a hike, while Westpac expects a hold.
When a hike is already mostly priced, the currency can fall on the decision if the guidance sounds cautious. That pattern is worth remembering for both pairs. The USD/CAD pair page and NZD/USD pair page cover how each one usually trades.
UK budget on Wednesday: what sterling traders watch
Chancellor John Healey presents the Autumn Budget on the same day as the Fed. Newsquawk described a deliberate effort by Healey and Prime Minister Andy Burnham to make it a "boring" budget, with a capital gains tax rise reportedly off the table. The main measure flagged is a tax increase on banks, estimated at between £2 billion and £5 billion depending on the design, and the fiscal headroom is expected to shrink from £23.6 billion to around £15 billion.
For the pound, the question is whether gilt markets accept the plan. Sterling went into the weekend near 1.3375 against the dollar, supported by a strong October PMI and expectations that the Bank of England will start hiking on 5 November. A budget that unsettles gilts could test that support. The GBP/USD outlook for the week of 26 October sets out the levels in focus.
ECB on Thursday: France in the spotlight
The European Central Bank is not expected to change rates on Thursday 29 October. Newsquawk pointed out that the rise in French bond yields during France's fiscal and civil unrest has reduced the room for further tightening, even though the rest of the euro area economy is coping well enough. Moody's was due to update its review of France after Friday's close, which could add to the debate.
Questions in the press conference are likely to focus on French bonds, the ECB's Transmission Protection Instrument and speculation about President Christine Lagarde's departure. EUR/USD ended the week nearly unchanged at around 1.120, so the decision could break a quiet spell. Our ECB decision explainer covers the usual pattern of the statement and the press conference.
US GDP and PCE on Thursday
Thursday also brings the first estimate of US third quarter GDP and September PCE inflation. The consensus quoted by Newsquawk is for growth of 3.0% annualised, below the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker at 3.5%. Headline PCE is expected to rise 0.5% on the month, lifting the annual rate to 3.6%, with core PCE seen at 0.3% on the month and 3.1% on the year.
After a hot producer price report, Bank of America said it expects core PCE to rise 0.34%. A reading at or above that level would support the case for a December hike and could weigh on gold again. A softer number would give the metal room to recover. The PCE inflation guide explains how the report is built.
Bank of Japan on Friday and the yen
The week ends with the Bank of Japan on Friday 30 October. Scotiabank noted that the consensus unanimously expects no change at 1.25% after September's hike, and that markets price about two thirds of another hike by 18 December. Japan's national CPI rose to 2.1% in September, above the 2% target, and Tokyo CPI for October is due the day before.
The focus will be the updated Outlook Report. Newsquawk said a shift from describing inflation as "approaching" the target to having "reached" it would strengthen the case for a December move. USD/JPY closed the week near 156.8, down from about 158.1. See the USD/JPY outlook for this week's scenarios.
Other events on the calendar
- Monday 26 October: German Ifo survey and the start of China's Fifth Plenum, which runs to 29 October.
- Tuesday 27 October: US durable goods orders and the Israeli Knesset election, which Newsquawk said may produce a fragmented result.
- Wednesday 28 October: Australian September CPI, a key input for the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting on 3 November.
- Friday 30 October: flash CPI for Germany, France, Spain and Italy, third quarter GDP for the euro area, and Canadian GDP for August.
Note also that UK clocks go back on 25 October and US clocks a week later, so for one week New York is four hours behind London rather than five. US releases and the Fed decision arrive an hour earlier than usual in UK time. The free market sessions tool shows the current opening times.
Pre open checklist for Sunday evening
- Check the weekend headlines on Hormuz and Saudi oil facilities before the first price.
- Look at where Friday closed for gold, Brent and your pairs, so you can measure any gap.
- Review open positions and pending orders that sit near Friday's closing levels.
- Recalculate position size if you plan to use wider stops in a volatile week.
- Mark Wednesday, Thursday and Friday decisions in your local time, allowing for the clock change.
- Decide in advance whether you will hold positions through each decision or stay flat.
What this means for signal traders
A week with this many scheduled events is not a reason to trade more. It is a reason to trade with smaller size and clearer rules. Spreads usually widen around big decisions and around the Sunday open, and prices can move through stops. Using a fixed cash risk per trade and letting the stop distance set the position size keeps one bad fill from doing outsized damage. Our position size calculator does that sum for you.
If you prefer structured ideas to building every plan yourself, you can see how Forexuro trade signals are laid out, with an entry, a stop loss and three targets, and check the public results record, losses included. The Forexuro team has more than 10 years of trading experience, and we post short previews before each decision on the Telegram channel. If you want to understand these macro moves on your own, the Forexuro video courses include a full module on central banks and intermarket analysis.
Official sources
Official pages for the decisions, data and schedules behind this report.
- Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendars, scheduled rate decision dates, statements and minutes.
- European Central Bank: monetary policy decisions, every ECB rate decision and statement.
- Bank of Japan: monetary policy meetings, the meeting schedule, statements and minutes.
- Bank of Canada: policy interest rate, the current rate and the decision schedule.
Frequently asked questions
Why does the weekend matter when forex markets are closed?
Prices cannot react on Saturday and Sunday, so news from the weekend is priced all at once when trading resumes in Asia on Sunday evening, UK time. That can create a gap between Friday's close and Monday's first price, and a stop loss can be filled at a worse level than the one you set.
Which central banks decide next week?
The Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announce on Wednesday 28 October, the European Central Bank on Thursday 29 October and the Bank of Japan on Friday 30 October, according to the Newsquawk week ahead calendar.
Is the Fed expected to raise rates on 28 October?
No. A Reuters poll cited by Newsquawk found 94 of 100 economists expect a hold at 3.75% to 4.00%, while CME pricing implied about a 10% chance of a hike. Most respondents expect a hike later, with December the most common call.
Did the tanker mine reports move oil prices?
Not yet. The reports came after Friday's close, when Brent had already settled at $116.72. The first chance for prices to react is the Sunday evening reopening, and Iran's claims had not been confirmed by a maritime authority at the time of writing.
Why are UK clocks relevant this week?
UK clocks go back on 25 October while US clocks change a week later, on 1 November. Until then the gap between London and New York is four hours instead of five, so US data and the Fed decision arrive an hour earlier than usual in UK time.
Sources
- Newsquawk: Week in Focus 26 to 30 October 2026
- Dow Jones Newswires via WSJ: Federal Reserve, ECB expected to keep interest rates on hold
- Scotiabank: The Global Week Ahead, 23 October 2026
- Gulf News: Houthi missile targets, tankers hit mines near Hormuz
- CBS News: live updates on Iran, oil and the Strait of Hormuz
- The National: Middle East latest, 24 October 2026
- Straits Daily Brief: Strait of Hormuz news, 24 October 2026
- Capital Street FX: Commodity report, 24 October 2026
- Kitco News: Gold, silver extend weekly losses as crude tops $116
- Data for the charts: Yahoo Finance (GC=F, BZ=F, DX-Y.NYB, EURUSD=X, GBPUSD=X, USDJPY=X, AUDUSD=X, NZDUSD=X, USDCAD=X), daily closes.
Keep reading
How central bank decisions move forex and gold · Friday's report on gold and Brent · Weekly forecasts · VIP plans