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Gold rebounds toward $3,900 after a 13 month low, with the dollar index near 103, as US producer prices for October follow the hot consumer inflation report
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US PPI data lands on Friday 13 November at 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET), and it arrives with gold rebounding near $3,900 an ounce after a 13 month low and the dollar index near its highest level since April 2025. After Tuesday's hot consumer price report, producer prices are the last big US inflation number before retail sales next week.
This report covers the forecasts for the October producer price figures, Thursday's drop in gold and the dollar's rise, how a hot or a soft reading could change December Fed pricing, and the releases due over the next four weeks. Our desk shares gold and currency levels in the free Forexuro Telegram channel on every trading day.
Free on Telegram. Gold and dollar levels on trading days, with entry, stop and three targets.
What Friday's US PPI data is expected to show
Producer prices measure what businesses receive for their goods and services, so they often lead consumer prices by a few months. In September headline PPI jumped 1.3% on the month and 6.3% on the year, the largest monthly rise in four and a half years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in October, with core PPI up 0.7% on the month and 5.0% on the year.
For October a Dow Jones survey cited by TradingKey points to a cooler 0.4% monthly rise, as energy prices eased, with core prices up 0.3%. The yearly rate could still climb to about 6.6% because of the base from last year. Our guide to CPI and PPI data for forex and gold explains why the core and services parts matter most for the Fed's preferred measure, PCE inflation, due on 25 November.
Gold falls to a 13 month low, then bounces
On Thursday gold dropped about 2.8% to a low near $3,852 an ounce, its weakest level since October 2025, after President Trump said there was no need for a deal with Iran, FXLeaders reported. Brent crude rose about 3.3% to near $95.80, and the US 10 year yield climbed above 5.10%. Higher oil meant more inflation worry, which lifted yield and rate expectations and pushed gold lower even though geopolitical tension usually supports it.
On our own feed gold was near $3,904 at about 07:00 UK time on Friday, against $3,967 at the same hour on Thursday and a Thursday low near $3,868 on our hourly readings. Bloomberg showed spot gold up 0.9% near $3,911 in Asian trade, its first gain after three falling sessions. FXLeaders pointed to $3,903 as the level to watch into PPI. Gold earns no yield, so rising US rate bets tend to cut its appeal; our explainer on what moves the gold price goes through that link. For the morning desk note see gold today, and for every closed gold trade see the XAU/USD results page.
The dollar and December Fed pricing
The dollar index touched 103.02 on Thursday, its highest level since April 2025, according to TradingKey, and our feed showed it near 103.1 on Friday morning. Bloomberg reported that two year Treasury yields rose 14 basis points on Thursday, and that New York Fed President John Williams said US inflation remains high and policymakers have to take further action. FXLeaders cited market pricing of about an 89% chance of a quarter point Fed rise on 9 December and 11% for a half point move.
A PPI figure above forecasts would add to the case for a larger rise, which usually helps the dollar and weighs on gold. A softer figure could trim bets on a half point move and give gold room to recover. In October, though, the dollar fell after a hot PPI report because Treasury yields dropped, so the bond market reaction matters as much as the number itself. USD/JPY traded near 159.8 after touching 160.17, its first move above 160 since September, so yen moves around the figure may be sharp.
| Market | Thursday, near 08:00 UK | Friday, near 07:00 UK |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold | $3,963 | $3,904 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1085 | 1.1071 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3270 | 1.3239 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6823 | 0.6796 |
| USD/JPY | 159.72 | 159.75 |
Dates after Friday
Five more releases can move the dollar before the Fed meets again:
| Day | Release | London | New York |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Nov (Tue) | Jobs and pay, UK | 07:00 | 2:00am |
| 17 Nov (Tue) | Retail spending, US | 13:30 | 8:30am |
| 18 Nov (Wed) | Consumer prices, UK | 07:00 | 2:00am |
| 25 Nov (Wed) | PCE prices and second GDP estimate, US | 13:30 | 8:30am |
| 9 Dec (Wed) | FOMC statement | 19:00 | 2:00pm |
With both cities on standard time, New York runs five hours behind London on all of these days. How markets price the December meeting is covered in our look at December Fed hike odds, and if spreads widen around a figure, the gold pip value calculator turns each dollar of movement into money at your size.
Gold signals on Telegram
Our desk sold gold at $4,047 on Wednesday and the trade went on to hit all three targets, closing at $3,997 for +500 pips. Free signals like that one appear every trading day in the free Forexuro Telegram channel, usually from about 05:00 to 15:00 UK time, each with an entry, a stop and three targets. VIP brings more signals and alerts, live management of each trade and priority support on Lifetime, at £99 a month or £549 once. Trading involves risk, and earlier results do not predict later ones.
Official sources
Official pages for the decisions, data and schedules behind this report.
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Schedule of releases for the Producer Price Index
- Federal Reserve, FOMC meeting calendar
Frequently asked questions
When is US PPI released in November 2026?
On Friday 13 November 2026 at 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET), covering October.
What is expected for October producer prices?
A Dow Jones survey cited by TradingKey expects a 0.4% monthly rise in headline prices and 0.3% in core prices, after 1.3% and 0.7% in September.
Why is gold below $4,000?
A dollar near its highest level since April 2025, a 10 year Treasury yield above 5.1% and a priced December Fed rise have weighed on gold since the hot US consumer price report on 10 November, and gold fell to a 13 month low on Thursday.
What comes after PPI for the dollar?
US retail sales on Tuesday 17 November at 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET), then PCE inflation on 25 November and the Fed on 9 December.
Sources
- FXLeaders: Gold price forecast, XAU/USD rebounds from $3,852 ahead of PPI and weekly close (13 November 2026)
- Bloomberg via swissinfo: Asian stocks erase gain, bonds slide before US PPI (13 November 2026)
- FXEmpire: Gold hits 13 month low before US PPI (13 November 2026)
- TradingKey: US October PPI preview (November 2026)
- Investing.com: Dollar slips as US bond rally offsets hot PPI (15 October 2026)
- Chart and table figures come from the Forexuro hourly price feed for 9 to 13 November 2026.
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