About 80% priced for a December Fed increase: how payrolls and CPI could move the odds and the dollar
Gold signals explained: how our gold signals work · every closed gold signal
Fed rate hike odds for the December 9 meeting stood at 80.7% on CME FedWatch on November 5, even after the dollar slid to its lowest since late September. Two releases land before that meeting, October payrolls on November 6 and October CPI on November 10, and each could move the odds and the dollar with them.
This guide lays out where the Fed stands, what is priced in, and how each release could shift it, with UK time first and ET in brackets. Dollar pair levels appear in the free Forexuro Telegram channel on most trading days.
Free on Telegram. Dollar pairs and gold around US data, with entry, stop and three targets.
Where the dollar stands after the midterms
The ICE dollar index fell 0.22% to 101.25 on Thursday, November 5, after a 0.34% drop the day before, touching its lowest level since September 30, Reuters reported. The euro rose to $1.1261 and the yen firmed to 157.95 per dollar. The 10 year Treasury yield eased to 4.847%, its lowest since September 10, as the Democratic midterm win and lower oil prices pulled yields down.
The chart uses our own feed to show the dollar against five of the six currencies in the index since October 23. The euro carries about 58% of the index weight, so EUR/USD does most of the work. Our EUR/USD pair guide covers what moves the euro side, and the dollar index COT report shows how futures traders are positioned.
What the Fed is expected to do on December 9
The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% in September 2026 and held it in October. Even after the dollar's slide, CME FedWatch showed an 80.7% chance of another quarter point increase at the December 9 meeting, up from 77.4% a day earlier. That pricing is the main support under the dollar right now. Our FOMC decision page lists every change.
If the data keep that December increase on track, the dollar has a floor. If the data soften enough to pull those odds down, the index has more room to fall, because the dip so far came mostly from lower yields rather than a change in Fed expectations.
Fed rate hike odds: the three dates to watch
| Event | UK time (ET) | What is expected |
|---|---|---|
| October payrolls | Fri, November 6, 13:30 (8:30am) | 59,000 to 65,000 jobs, unemployment 4.2% |
| October CPI | Tue, November 10, 13:30 (8:30am) | See our US CPI dates guide |
| Fed decision | Wed, December 9, 19:00 (2pm) | About 80% priced for a quarter point increase |
A strong jobs number or a hot CPI print would tend to lift Treasury yields and the dollar. A weak one, especially with a rise in unemployment, would tend to do the opposite. Our guide to how payrolls move forex and gold explains the first minutes after the release, and the US CPI event page lists past readings.
How a dollar move shows up in a trade
Most US traders see the dollar index through EUR/USD or gold. On October 21 we posted a EUR/USD sell at 1.1227 with a stop at 1.1287 and targets at 1.1207, 1.1187 and 1.1167. The third target was reached for +60 pips. On one standard lot that is about $600, and on a mini lot about $60; the EUR/USD pip value calculator works it out for your size. Session levels are on EUR/USD today.
Our page for US traders explains how to follow the three targets as partial closes of one position. Every closed EUR/USD trade, wins and losses alike, is on the EUR/USD signal results page.
Follow the dollar with Forexuro
The free Forexuro Telegram channel posts free signals every trading day, usually between about 05:00 and 15:00 UK time, each with an entry, a stop and three targets. VIP is £99 a month or £549 one time for more signals and live management. Trading carries risk, and past results are not a reliable guide to future results.
Official sources
Primary reference pages from regulators, central banks and official bodies on the topics in this article.
- Federal Reserve, FOMC meeting calendar
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment report schedule
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI release schedule
Frequently asked questions
What are the Fed rate hike chances for December 2026?
CME FedWatch showed an 80.7% chance of a quarter point increase at the December 9 meeting on November 5, up from 77.4% a day earlier.
Why did the dollar fall in early November 2026?
The Democratic midterm win and lower oil prices pulled Treasury yields down, and the index fell to 101.25 on November 5, its lowest since September 30.
What time is the October jobs report in ET?
8:30am ET on Friday, November 6, which is 13:30 UK time.
When is the next Fed decision?
Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 2pm ET, which is 19:00 UK time, with economic projections.
Keep reading
FOMC rate decision · Forex signals for US traders · EUR/USD signal results · Economic calendar