The RBA lifts its cash rate to 4.85% on a 6 to 3 vote: what changed for AUD/USD
Gold signals explained: how our gold signals work · every closed gold signal
The RBA rate decision November 2026 was a 25 basis point rise to 4.85%, announced at 03:30 UK time on Tuesday 3 November (10:30pm ET on Monday), but the Australian dollar fell rather than rose. Markets had expected the move, so the details did the work: a split vote, softer guidance and a growth outlook that points to a pause.
This page sets out what the Board decided, why AUD/USD reacted the way it did, how the rate path looks now, and what our own AUD/USD record shows around decision days. Our preview of the November meeting laid out the scenarios beforehand. The free Forexuro Telegram channel posts AUD/USD levels on trading days.
Free on Telegram. Follow AUD/USD after the RBA hike, with entry, stop and three targets on every signal.
What the Board decided
The statement said inflation remains elevated and broadly based, and that staff forecasts for inflation had been revised materially higher. Part of that reflects fuel and commodity prices affected by the conflict in the Middle East, but the Board also judged domestic capacity pressures to be a little tighter than it thought earlier. It now sees inflation staying elevated through much of 2027.
The vote was by majority: six members backed the rise and three preferred to hold at 4.60%. The cash rate has now risen five times in 2026, in February, March, May, September and November, and ABC News said it is at its highest level since 2008.
Why AUD/USD fell after a rate rise
MarketWatch reported that the Australian dollar first rose to just above 70.00 US cents, then fell back to around 69.75 cents as traders read the statement. Forex.com noted that the RBA removed an explicit reference to the possibility of further rises, and that two year Australian yields fell below 4.9%. At her press conference Governor Michele Bullock gave no guidance and said it was probably good to wait for data, investingLive reported.
That is a classic case of a rise that was priced before the meeting. When the hike is fully expected, the market trades the message about the next step instead. On our feed AUD/USD was near 0.6988 in early London trade on Tuesday, below Monday's levels.
Our guide on central bank rate decisions explains this gap between pricing and message in more detail.
RBA rate decision November 2026: the path from here
The Board's own forecasts see growth slowing further over the coming year and the unemployment rate rising by more than it expected in August. Higher rates and falling house prices are expected to weigh on dwelling investment and household spending, while business investment, including data centres, is forecast to be stronger in the near term.
The next announcement is on Tuesday 8 December 2026 at 2:30pm Sydney time, which is 03:30 UK time and 10:30pm ET on Monday 7 December. The full history of changes sits on the RBA rate decision page, and the central banks table compares the cash rate with other policy rates.
Our AUD/USD signals around RBA decisions
Three winning examples from our record show how we trade these sessions. On 3 February 2026, decision day, Forexuro posted an AUD/USD sell at 0.6995 with a stop at 0.7049; the third target at 0.6941 was hit for +53 pips. On 18 March 2026, the day after the March decision, a sell at 0.7060 reached the third target at 0.7005 for +54 pips. On 30 September 2026, the day after the September decision, a buy at 0.6959 reached the third target at 0.7011 for +52 pips.
Every closed AUD/USD trade, wins and losses alike, is on the AUD/USD signal results page. Before a decision, size the stop in money with the AUD/USD pip value calculator, and see the take profit ladder for how three targets lock in part of a move.
Trade the next RBA meeting with Forexuro
The free Forexuro Telegram channel posts free signals every trading day, usually between about 05:00 and 15:00 UK time, each with an entry, a stop and three targets. VIP is £99 a month or £549 one time for more signals and live management. Trading carries risk, and past results are not a reliable guide to future results.
Official sources
Primary reference pages from regulators, central banks and official bodies on the topics in this article.
- RBA Monetary Policy Decision, 3 November 2026, statement and vote
- RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, November 2026, forecasts
- RBA cash rate target, history of changes
Frequently asked questions
What did the RBA decide in November 2026?
It raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85% on 3 November 2026, effective 4 November, by a 6 to 3 vote.
Why did the Australian dollar fall after the rise?
The rise was expected, and the split vote plus the removal of an explicit hint of further rises led traders to price a pause.
When is the next RBA decision?
Tuesday 8 December 2026 at 03:30 UK time, which is 10:30pm ET on Monday 7 December.
Keep reading
RBA rate decision · AUD/USD signal results · RBA November 2026 preview · Central banks table