RBA rate decision on 3 November 2026: what AUD/USD traders should watch
The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its next rate decision on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 03:30 UK time, which is 2:30pm in Sydney and 10:30pm ET on Monday. The cash rate stands at 4.60%, inflation has just risen to 4.3%, and markets lean strongly towards another rise. For AUD/USD the decision itself may matter less than what the RBA says about the months ahead.
This preview covers the timing in UK time, the data the board will weigh, the three outcomes traders are planning around and how the Australian dollar has behaved into the meeting. It uses figures from the RBA, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the CFTC. Our free Telegram channel covers AUD/USD around the decision, and we will publish a separate recap once the result is out.
Free on Telegram. Get free AUD/USD, gold and major pair signals every trading day on the Forexuro channel.
When the RBA decides, in UK time
The RBA Monetary Policy Board meets on Monday 2 and Tuesday 3 November. The statement, the decision and the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy with new forecasts are released together at 2:30pm Sydney time, which is 03:30 UK time on Tuesday. Governor Michele Bullock holds her media conference at 3:30pm Sydney time, 04:30 UK time.
| Item | Sydney | UK time | New York (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Decision, statement and Statement on Monetary Policy | Tue 3 Nov, 2:30pm | Tue 3 Nov, 03:30 | Mon 2 Nov, 10:30pm |
| Governor's media conference | Tue 3 Nov, 3:30pm | Tue 3 Nov, 04:30 | Mon 2 Nov, 11:30pm |
Times from the RBA schedule. UK clocks went back on 25 October and US clocks go back on 1 November, so London is 11 hours behind Sydney and 5 hours ahead of New York on the day.
That timing puts the decision in the Asian session, before London opens. Our market sessions tool shows which centres are open at that hour, and the RBA rate decision page keeps the full history of past decisions.
Where the cash rate stands
The RBA cut three times in 2025, taking the cash rate from 4.35% to 3.60% by August. It then turned around in 2026 and raised rates in February, March, May and September, the last move taking the cash rate target to 4.60% from 30 September. A rise on Tuesday would be the fifth of the year.
Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said in October that the inflation outlook looked "materially worse" than the bank had forecast. Betashares chief economist David Bassanese has pointed out the one argument against moving now: the board raised rates early in September, so it may feel it has time to wait until December.
The inflation data the board will weigh
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on 28 October that consumer prices rose 0.8% in September alone and 4.3% over the year, up from 4.0% in August. Housing was the biggest contributor, and fuel prices rose 9.4% over the year. The monthly trimmed mean, the measure of underlying inflation the RBA watches, rose to 3.6% from a revised 3.5%.
The quarterly figures added to the pressure. The trimmed mean rose 1.0% in the September quarter and 3.7% over the year. Bassanese noted that this was faster than the RBA had pencilled in back in August. After the release, Bloomberg data put the chance of a 0.25 point rise at about 85%, ABC News reported.
Three outcomes and what each could mean for AUD/USD
Because a rise is largely priced, traders tend to judge the RBA on the message as much as the move. Three broad cases are worth planning for:
- A rise with a firm message. If the board lifts the rate and the new forecasts keep inflation above the band through 2027, the market can price another rise early next year, which tends to support the Aussie.
- A rise that sounds like a pause. If the board lifts the rate but hints it can now wait, as Bassanese expects for December, AUD/USD can slip even on a rise, because some of the gain was taken in advance.
- A hold. With pricing near 85% for a rise, keeping the rate at 4.60% would be the surprise of the three, and the first reaction would likely be a weaker Aussie.
The Statement on Monetary Policy matters here because it carries the bank's new forecasts for inflation and growth. The media conference an hour later can then confirm or soften the first reaction. Our guide to central bank rate decisions explains why the gap between pricing and outcome drives the move.
How AUD/USD heads into the meeting
The Australian dollar gained about 1.2% against the US dollar in October, trading near $0.7030 on Friday morning, according to Reuters figures carried by CNBC. Based on ECB reference rates, AUD/USD has traded between 0.6911 and 0.7225 since 30 July, and its average daily move over the last 20 fixings was about 22 pips.
Positioning is the other side of the picture. CFTC data for the week to 20 October showed speculators holding a net short of 127,292 contracts in Australian dollar futures, the largest short in three years on our measure. A crowded short can add to a rally if the RBA sounds firm, as sellers rush to cover. CFTC reports come out on Friday evenings UK time, and the AUD/USD forecast and AUD/USD pair page track the latest levels. The pair sits among the most traded majors, as our major pairs guide explains.
A real AUD/USD signal from the last RBA week
On 30 September 2026, the day the September rise took effect, the Forexuro channel closed an AUD/USD buy that had been opened at 0.6959 with a stop at 0.6903, 56 pips away. The three targets were 0.6979, 0.6995 and 0.7011. The Aussie climbed and the trade reached its third target, a gain of 52 pips.
Every closed AUD/USD signal, wins and all, is listed on the AUD/USD results page.
| Level | Price | Distance from entry |
|---|---|---|
| Entry (buy) | 0.6959 | |
| Stop | 0.6903 | 56 pips |
| TP1 | 0.6979 | 20 pips |
| TP2 | 0.6995 | 36 pips |
| TP3 (reached) | 0.7011 | 52 pips |
For AUD/USD the pip is 0.0001 and a standard lot moves $10 a pip, so 52 pips on a tenth of a lot comes to $52, or about £39 at a GBP/USD rate of 1.339. The AUD/USD pip value calculator works this out for any lot size and account currency, and our guide to lot size calculation shows how to size the trade from the stop distance.
Follow the RBA with Forexuro
The free Forexuro Telegram channel posts free signals every trading day, usually between about 05:00 and 15:00 UK time, each with an entry, a stop and three targets as in the example above. The RBA lands before that window opens, so the first London signals on Tuesday will already reflect the decision.
VIP gives you more signals and alerts, full live management of every trade and priority support on Lifetime, for £99 a month or £549 one time. If you have a question about brokers, ask us on Telegram; the team never sends private messages first. Trading carries risk, and past results are not a reliable guide to future results.
Official sources
Primary reference pages from regulators, central banks and official bodies on the topics in this article.
- Reserve Bank of Australia: schedule of releases, the time of the decision, the Statement on Monetary Policy and the media conference.
- Reserve Bank of Australia: cash rate target overview, the current cash rate target and past changes.
- Australian Bureau of Statistics: Consumer Price Index, Australia, September 2026, headline and trimmed mean inflation.
- CFTC: Commitments of Traders, weekly positioning in Australian dollar futures.
- ABC News: Inflation rate rises to 4.3 per cent in September, market pricing and economists' comments after the release.
Frequently asked questions
What time is the RBA decision in UK time?
03:30 UK time on Tuesday 3 November 2026, which is 2:30pm in Sydney and 10:30pm ET on Monday 2 November. The media conference follows at 04:30 UK time.
What is the RBA cash rate now?
4.60%, after a rise that took effect on 30 September 2026. It was the fourth increase of 2026.
Why might the RBA raise rates in November?
Inflation rose to 4.3% in the year to September and the monthly trimmed mean to 3.6%, above the 2 to 3% target band, and the deputy governor said the outlook looked materially worse.
How does an RBA decision move AUD/USD?
Mostly through the gap between what markets price and what the RBA does and says. With a rise largely priced, the tone of the statement and the new forecasts often matter more than the decision itself.
Will there be an RBA recap?
Yes. Forexuro publishes a separate recap after the decision, and the RBA rate decision page is updated with the result.
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AUD/USD signal results · RBA rate decision · AUD/USD forecast · Central banks · Economic calendar