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Latest outlook: GBP/USD forecast this week always shows the newest edition, with links to every past week.
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- Sterling was one of only two majors to gain on the dollar last week, adding 17 pips to 1.3391 after a low of 1.3276 on Wednesday.
- The Bank of England decision with its Monetary Policy Report on Thursday is the pair's main event, with US payrolls a day later.
- Speculators are still net short sterling futures, though they trimmed the position by 1,006 contracts.
Where it stands
Cable had the most interesting week of the dollar pairs. It fell to 1.3276 on Wednesday 28 October at 11:00 UK time, then climbed for three straight sessions to a high of 1.3431 on Friday morning and closed at 1.3391, slightly above the 1.3374 close of the week before. Friday's close was the highest daily close of the week in our feed.
The rebound reflects a market that expects the Bank of England to lean hawkish. Bank Rate is 3.75%, the September vote was 6 to 3 with three members wanting 4%, and UK CPI inflation rose to 3.5% in September from 3.1%. Services inflation was 3.7%, the measure the Bank watches most closely.
Events this week
- Thursday 5 November, 12:00 UK time (7:00am ET): Bank of England decision and Monetary Policy Report. With three votes for a rise last time, the split and the new forecasts can move cable by more than the decision itself.
- Friday 6 November, 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET): US nonfarm payrolls. The dollar side of the pair gets its test a day after the Bank, with September's 29,000 jobs as the low bar.
- Wednesday 4 November, 10:00 UK time (5:00am ET): euro area flash inflation. It matters for cable through EUR/GBP, which slid to 0.8334 last week as the pound outperformed.
What matters this week
The futures market is less negative on the pound than it was. Non commercial traders were net short 79,414 sterling contracts on 27 October, 1,006 fewer than a week earlier, giving a three year COT index of 11 out of 100. That is still near the bearish end of the range, so a hawkish Bank of England could force further short covering. Our GBP COT page tracks it weekly.
Cable also moves more than the euro: over the last 20 ECB fixings the pound moved 31.0 pips a day on average, against 25.3 for EUR/USD, and last week's range in our feed was 155 pips. Expect that range to widen around Thursday noon UK time.
Scenarios
Upside scenario. If more members vote for a rise or the Monetary Policy Report signals one for December, cable can retest Friday's high at 1.3431 and push for the round 1.3500, with soft US payrolls adding fuel on Friday.
Downside scenario. A hold with fewer votes for a rise would disappoint a market that has priced a hawkish turn. A drop through 1.3374, the previous Friday close, would expose Wednesday's low at 1.3276.
Levels in focus
Range to watch: 1.3314 to 1.3468, half of last week's range either side of 1.3391.
- Resistance 1.3500: round number above the week's high.
- Resistance 1.3431: Friday's high in our feed.
- Support 1.3374: the close of 23 October.
- Support 1.3276: Wednesday's low, the bottom of last week's range.
Our record
Sterling has given our desk clean trades in the past fortnight. On 26 October we sold GBP/USD at 1.3347 with a stop at 1.3401 and targets at 1.3327, 1.3301 and 1.3285; it closed at the third target for 62 pips. Every closed GBP/USD trade is on the GBP/USD results page, and today's levels are on GBP/USD today.
Our free Forexuro Telegram channel carries free signals every trading day, including on Bank of England days. VIP members get more signals and alerts, full live management of each trade and priority support on Lifetime, for 拢99 a month or 拢549 one time on the plans page. Check your size with the GBP/USD pip value calculator.
Sources
- Bank of England: upcoming MPC dates (link)
- Bank of England: Bank Rate history (link)
- Office for National Statistics: consumer price inflation (link)
- CFTC: Commitments of Traders, report of 27 October 2026 (link)
- Forexuro GBP COT page
- Forexuro signal record (CSV)
Prices are approximate and will have changed since the Friday close. See also: Bank of England decision guide.
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