GBP/USD Weekly Outlook: UK GDP and CPI, 9 to 13 Nov

Last updated: 7 November 2026 · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy

Published 7 November 2026 · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team

Latest outlook: GBP/USD forecast this week always shows the newest edition, with links to every past week.

Next week: the GBP/USD forecast next week page switches to the new edition every Sunday and checks this week's levels against real prices.

Our track record: every closed GBP/USD signal with entry, stop, targets and outcome is public on the GBP/USD results page.

Summary

• GBP/USD closed at 1.3348 on Friday, down from 1.3391 a week earlier, after a weekly high of 1.3499 in our feed.
• UK GDP on Thursday 12 November at 07:00 UK time is cable's home event; US CPI on Tuesday sets the dollar tone first.
• Speculators cut sterling shorts: net short 59,821 contracts after covering 19,593, with a three year COT index of 19.

Where it stands

Cable gave back the prior week's rebound. After the Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4% on 5 November, US payrolls of 165,000 jobs still lifted the dollar into Friday. Our feed shows a weekly high of 1.3499 and a Friday close at 1.3348, near the week's low of 1.3343.

Bank Rate is now 4% after an 8 to 1 vote. That hawkish step helped sterling early in the week, but the dollar's payrolls reaction into the weekend left cable lower on the week.

Cable's post BoE bounce faded once US payrolls beat. Bank Rate is 4% after the 8 to 1 vote on 5 November, yet Friday's close at 1.3348 sits near the week's low. That tells you the dollar side still dominated into the weekend, which is why Tuesday's CPI arrives before Thursday's UK GDP on the desk's checklist.

Events this week

• Tuesday 10 November, 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET): US CPI inflation for October 2026. A hot US print that firms the dollar usually weighs on cable first, before the UK data arrive.
• Thursday 12 November, 07:00 UK time (7:00am ET): UK GDP monthly estimate for September 2026. Soft growth after the Bank's hike can fade sterling; a firm reading would support the pair near 1.3348 into the London morning.

What matters this week

Futures traders covered a large part of their sterling short. Non commercial traders were net short 59,821 contracts on 3 November, 19,593 fewer than a week earlier, for a three year COT index of 18.9. Our GBP COT page tracks it weekly.

Last week's range in our feed was about 155 pips. That is wide enough that Tuesday's CPI and Thursday's GDP can each set a fresh high or low for the week.

Half of last week's roughly 155 pip range either side of 1.3348 gives a band from 1.3271 to 1.3426. Sterling shorts were cut by nearly 20,000 contracts in the 3 November COT, so a soft US CPI plus firm UK GDP could force more covering toward 1.3463.

Scenarios

Upside scenario. Soft US CPI and firm UK GDP would favour sterling. Cable could retest 1.3463 and the weekly high at 1.3499.

Downside scenario. Hot US inflation and soft UK growth would point the other way. A break of 1.3343 would open 1.3300 as the next round number.

Levels in focus

Range to watch: 1.3271 to 1.3426, half of last week's range either side of 1.3348.

• Resistance 1.3499: the week's high in our feed.
• Resistance 1.3463: Friday's session high area.
• Support 1.3343: the week's low near Friday's close.
• Support 1.3300: round number below the range.

Levels for the London and New York sessions. For GBP/USD, watch resistance at 1.3463 and 1.3499 and support at 1.3343 and 1.3300 around the London open at 08:00 UK time (3:00am ET) and the New York open at 13:00 UK time (8:00am ET). Thursday's UK GDP at 07:00 UK time is a London morning print; Tuesday's CPI at 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET) is the New York morning test for the dollar side of cable.

Our record

Cable remains on our board every week. Recent closed trades with entry, stop and outcome are listed on the GBP/USD results page, and the session levels are updated on GBP/USD today.

Cable levels land every trading day in the free Forexuro Telegram channel. VIP covers the full package of extra signals, live management and Lifetime priority help at £99 a month or £549 once on the plans page. Use the GBP/USD pip calculator before sizing.

Sources

• ONS: GDP release calendar (link)
• Bank of England: Monetary Policy Committee decisions (link)
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics: consumer price index (link)
• CFTC: Commitments of Traders, report of 3 November 2026 (link)
• Forexuro GBP COT page
• Forexuro signal record (CSV)

Prices are approximate and will have changed since the Friday close.

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