EUR/USD signals for a week with the Fed and the ECB

EUR/USD starts the week of 26 October near its lowest level of 2026, with the Federal Reserve deciding on Wednesday and the European Central Bank on Thursday. Back to back central bank decisions are where a trade idea is most likely to be tested by sudden moves, wider spreads and fast reversals, so it is worth knowing what a well built EUR/USD signal should look like before the week begins.

This guide covers where the pair stands, what is expected from each decision, how far EUR/USD has typically moved in a day this year and how to size and manage trades through the event cluster. Our levels for the week are posted free on the Forexuro Telegram channel.

Why this week is different for EUR/USD

Most weeks, EUR/USD has one or two moments that matter: a US jobs report, an inflation release or a speech. This week has four within roughly 30 hours. The Fed announces its decision on Wednesday 28 October, the ECB follows on Thursday 29 October, and the first estimate of US third quarter GDP and September PCE inflation land on the same Thursday, according to the Newsquawk week ahead calendar.

Note that the Fed will set its tone before seeing the PCE data, so the market may have to reprice on Thursday whatever it concluded on Wednesday. For a signal follower, that means an idea opened on Wednesday afternoon could face three separate tests before Friday. Our standard EUR/USD signals page explains the ticket format; this article is about the conditions around it.

EUR/USD in 2026 so far

The chart below shows EUR/USD daily closes from January to Friday 23 October, with the year's high and low marked.

On Yahoo Finance data, the pair opened the year near 1.1751, reached a high of about 1.2024 on 28 January and spent most of the spring and summer between 1.14 and 1.18. The decline that began in September took it to a 2026 low of about 1.1114 on 13 October. It recovered only modestly and closed Friday 23 October at about 1.1204, with October's high so far at about 1.1285.

So the pair goes into the decisions close to the bottom of its yearly range, after a month in which sellers were in control. That context matters for any signal: a short near the lows has less distance to the obvious support, and a long is betting that the decline has run its course.

The Fed decision on Wednesday 28 October

The Fed is expected to hold rates at 3.75% to 4.00%. Newsquawk cited a Reuters poll in which 94 of 100 economists expected a hold, following a unanimous 25 basis point rise in September. All respondents expected a further increase later, and Pimco said it expects a hold now with a clear tightening bias and a hike in December.

When the decision itself is widely expected, the market usually moves on the details: the statement, the vote split and the press conference. Newsquawk noted that three officials voted for a hike in July and may dissent again. A hawkish split would tend to support the dollar and weigh on EUR/USD; a softer message would do the opposite. Our FOMC rate decision explainer covers how the statement and press conference are usually read.

The ECB decision on Thursday 29 October

The ECB is not expected to raise rates this month, according to Newsquawk, which said the rise in French bond yields during France's fiscal and civil unrest has reduced the room for further tightening. At the same time, it noted that the rest of the euro area economy is holding up well enough to absorb another hike later.

That leaves a statement that may be deliberately non committal, and a press conference likely to be dominated by questions about French bonds, the ECB's Transmission Protection Instrument and speculation about President Lagarde's departure. For EUR/USD, any sign that France is changing the policy path could matter more than the rate decision. The ECB rate decision explainer sets out how the announcement and the press conference are structured.

How far EUR/USD moves in a day

Stops and targets only make sense relative to how far the pair usually travels. We measured the average daily high to low range for each month of 2026.

The range peaked at about 82 pips a day in March and fell to about 41 pips in August. October so far averages about 58 pips, higher than the late summer months. Measured close to close, the median daily move this year has been about 25 pips, while one day in ten has moved about 77 pips or more. The largest close to close move of the year, about 145 pips, came on 7 April.

Event days tend to sit in that upper tail. A stop of 20 pips might survive an ordinary Tuesday, but on a Fed or ECB day it can be taken out by noise before the real move begins. A signal written for this week should reflect that in its stop distance or its size.

Pip value and sizing in pounds

On EUR/USD one pip is 0.0001, and a standard lot of 100,000 euros is worth 10 dollars per pip. For a trader whose account is in sterling, with GBP/USD near 1.3375, that is about £7.48 per pip per standard lot.

A 30 pip stop on one standard lot therefore risks roughly £224, and on 0.2 lots about £45. If the event cluster leads you to widen the stop to 45 pips, the same £45 risk means cutting the size to about 0.13 lots. Wider stop, smaller size, same risk. The EUR/USD pip value calculator and the position size calculator do the conversion with live rates, which is safer than working from a remembered figure.

What a good EUR/USD signal should show this week

• A clear direction and an entry price or tight zone in the standard four decimal format, such as 1.1185.
• A stop loss beyond a meaningful level, such as the 13 October low or a recent swing, rather than a fixed number of pips.
• Three targets that respect the obvious levels, including round numbers like 1.1200 and the October high.
• A note when the Fed, the ECB or US data is close, with guidance on whether to hold through it.
• Management updates, such as moving the stop to entry after the first target or closing early when the picture changes.
• A public record of past results, losses included, so you can check how the provider handles weeks like this.

Every Forexuro signal includes an entry, a stop loss and three targets, with updates on Telegram, and closed trades are recorded on our public results page. If the format is new to you, read how to read a forex signal, and see TP1, TP2 or TP3 for how scaling out changes results.

Trading through back to back decisions

Two decisions a day apart create a specific problem: the first reaction may reverse the next day. A dollar rally after a hawkish Fed can unwind if the ECB surprises in the same direction, and a calm Wednesday can turn into a volatile Thursday once the PCE data lands.

Practical responses include reducing size on positions held across both decisions, taking partial profit before each announcement, and waiting for the first 15 to 30 minutes of reaction to settle before acting on a new idea. Spreads often widen around the release times, so a stop that sits close to price can be filled worse than its level. The lesson on slippage, gaps and weekend risk explains why. Our guide to central bank rate decisions covers why statements and press conferences often move markets more than the headline rate.

Timing: the clock change matters this week

UK clocks went back on Sunday 25 October, but US clocks do not change until Sunday 1 November. For this one week the time difference between London and New York is four hours instead of five. US data and the Fed decision will therefore arrive an hour earlier than usual for anyone working on UK time.

That is easy to miss when a trade is set up with alerts based on a normal week. Check the release times in UK time before the week starts, and use the market sessions tool to see when the London and New York overlap now falls. Our article on London and New York sessions explains why that overlap is usually the busiest window for EUR/USD.

A checklist before taking a EUR/USD signal this week

• Note the Fed time on Wednesday and the ECB and US data times on Thursday, in UK time.
• Compare the stop distance with the current average daily range of about 58 pips.
• Check how close the entry is to the 2026 low near 1.1114 and to 1.1200.
• Work out the risk in pounds with a calculator before entering.
• Decide in advance whether you will hold through each announcement or reduce first.
• Keep total exposure to the dollar within your limit, including positions on GBP/USD or gold.
• Record the trade and the reason you took it, so you can review it once the week is over.

Free versus VIP EUR/USD signals

Our free Telegram channel shares market notes and selected trade ideas, which is a straightforward way to see how we approach EUR/USD before paying anything. The VIP channel carries the full set of signals across the pairs we cover, including EUR/USD, GBP/USD signals and XAU/USD gold signals, each with an entry, a stop loss and three targets.

On the VIP plans page, VIP is £99 a month or £549 for lifetime access with a single payment. A £699 package adds both trading courses and the e-book to lifetime signals. If you want to understand the analysis behind the tickets, the Beginner course is £149, the Advanced course is £299, and The Chart Patterns Playbook is £39.

Signals during a central bank week suit traders who can check updates during the London and New York sessions, are prepared to close trades early when the picture changes, and size from the stop distance rather than a fixed lot. They suit less well anyone who wants to set an order and walk away for the week, because two decisions and a major inflation report in two days can move the pair in both directions.

The Forexuro team has more than 10 years of trading experience, and weeks like this are where discipline counts more than prediction. Compare our other markets on the forex signals page, or join the free Forexuro Telegram channel and follow how we handle the Fed and the ECB.

Official sources

Primary reference pages from regulators, central banks and official bodies on the topics in this article.

• Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendars, scheduled rate decision dates, statements and minutes.
• European Central Bank: monetary policy decisions, every ECB rate decision and statement.
• European Central Bank: euro foreign exchange reference rates, the daily reference rates for the euro, quoted as units of each currency per euro.

Frequently asked questions

Sources

• Newsquawk: Week in Focus 26-30th October 2026
• Price data: Yahoo Finance daily bars (EURUSD=X), to 23 October 2026.

Keep reading

EUR/USD signals · EUR/USD pair guide · EUR/USD forecast for the week of 26 October · How rate decisions move forex and gold