Sterling near 1.3351 before Thursday's UK GDP: what August showed, the early signs for September and what it means for the pound
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GBP vs USD news today: the pound starts the week near 1.3351 against the dollar, which still holds the gains it made on Friday's strong US jobs report. The next UK test is the September GDP figure on Thursday 12 November at 07:00 UK time, two days after US inflation data.
This guide covers what the August figures showed, what the early indicators say about September, why growth matters to the Bank of England and to sterling, and what a GBP/USD target is worth in pounds. Pound levels appear in the free Forexuro Telegram channel on trading days.
Free on Telegram. GBP/USD levels around UK data, with entry, stop and three targets.
What August's GDP figures showed
The UK economy grew 0.1% in August, after 0.4% in both July and June, the Office for National Statistics reported. Over the three months to August it grew 0.7%, the eighth three month rise in a row. Services did the work, up 0.9% over the period, while production fell 0.2% and construction 1.0%.
| UK output, three months to August 2026 | Change on previous three months |
|---|---|
| GDP | up 0.7% |
| Services | up 0.9% |
| Production | down 0.2% |
| Construction | down 1.0% |
Compared with a year earlier, output in the three months to August was 1.8% higher, the fastest annual pace since the three months to October 2022. Professional services and computer programming led the gains.
Early signs for September
The ONS's real time indicators pointed to a softer month. Consumer demand weakened in September, housing indicators showed weaker activity, and potential redundancies rose after three monthly falls. Wholesale electricity and gas prices stayed more than double their level of a year earlier, and 73% of businesses surveyed in late September reported some concern about fuel prices.
That mix explains why traders treat Thursday's number carefully. A firm figure would extend the run of growth that surprised the Bank, while a weak one would show the energy squeeze starting to bite. Our UK CPI forecast for 2026 covers the inflation side of the same story.
GBP vs USD news today: why growth matters for the pound
When the Monetary Policy Committee raised Bank Rate to 4% on 5 November, by 8 votes to 1, it said activity in recent months had generally been stronger than expected, adding to the case for modestly tighter policy. Stronger growth keeps the door open to another rise, which tends to support sterling; weaker growth does the opposite. The Bank of England decision page has every past vote.
Last week showed that the dollar side can matter more. Sterling climbed to about 1.3499 on our feed before the Bank's decision but ended near 1.3351 as the US jobs report lifted the dollar. Our record of GBP/USD on Bank of England rate change days shows how the pair has reacted before, and the latest market news is updated through the day.
| Release | UK time | CET | ET |
|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI, October, Tuesday 10 November | 13:30 | 14:30 | 8:30am |
| UK GDP monthly estimate, September, Thursday 12 November | 07:00 | 08:00 | 2:00am |
A GBP/USD target in pounds
Pound based traders think in sterling, so it helps to convert. A move of 0.0001 in GBP/USD is worth $10 per 100,000 units, and with the pair at 1.3357 on Sunday that dollar amount equals roughly £7.49. Our desk bought GBP/USD at 1.3425 for the trade that closed on 3 November, aiming at 1.3445, 1.3471 and 1.3495. The price reached every target, and the last one gave +70 pips, close to £524 for 100,000 units.
Someone splitting the trade into three mini lots of 10,000 units, taking one off at each target, would have banked roughly £15, then £34, then £52: about £102 altogether. Splitting a position like this is covered on our signals page for UK traders, the GBP/USD pip value calculator converts any stop or target, and every closed trade is on the GBP/USD signal results page. Session levels are on GBP/USD today.
Follow the pound with Forexuro
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Official sources
Primary reference pages from regulators, central banks and official bodies on the topics in this article.
- Office for National Statistics, GDP monthly estimate, UK: August 2026
- Office for National Statistics, GDP monthly estimate, UK: September 2026, release page
- Bank of England, Monetary Policy Summary, November 2026
Frequently asked questions
When is UK GDP for September 2026 published?
Thursday 12 November 2026 at 07:00 UK time, which is 2:00am ET and 08:00 CET.
How much did the UK economy grow in August 2026?
0.1% on the month, and 0.7% in the three months to August, according to the ONS.
Where did GBP/USD close on 6 November 2026?
Near 1.3351 on our price feed, after trading as high as about 1.3499 earlier in the week.
What is one GBP/USD pip worth in sterling right now?
Roughly £7.49 per 100,000 units with the pair at 1.3357, or roughly 75p per 10,000 units.
Keep reading
GBP/USD today · Pound to dollar forecast · UK CPI page · This week's calendar