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- EUR/USD fell 43 pips on the week to 1.1159 and briefly traded at 1.1114 on Wednesday, its weakest point in our feed.
- Euro area flash inflation on Wednesday and US payrolls on Friday decide whether the slide resumes.
- Speculators hold the largest net short in euro futures of the last three years: a COT index of 0.
Where it stands
The euro started the week at its high, 1.1223 on Monday 26 October at 03:00 UK time, and spent the rest of it giving ground. It touched 1.1114 on Wednesday morning, recovered to 1.1178 by Thursday's close and finished Friday at 1.1159, down from 1.1202 a week earlier. The ECB reference rates tell the same story over a longer window: the euro fixed between 1.1130 and 1.1699 since 31 July, so the pair now trades close to the bottom of that three month band.
The European Central Bank kept its deposit rate at 2.50% on 29 October after raising it on 16 September. The Fed's range is 3.75% to 4.00%, so the dollar still pays well over a point more, and that gap is a steady weight on the euro.
Events this week
- Wednesday 4 November, 10:00 UK time (5:00am ET): euro area flash HICP for October. A hot reading would revive talk of another ECB rise in December; a cool one would add to the pressure on 1.1114.
- Friday 6 November, 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET): US nonfarm payrolls. September added just 29,000 jobs, so a rebound in hiring would extend the dollar's edge, while another weak month would help the euro.
- Thursday 5 November, 12:00 UK time (7:00am ET): Bank of England decision. It moves EUR/USD mainly through EUR/GBP flows during the London lunch hour.
What matters this week
Positioning is extreme. In the Commitments of Traders report for 27 October, non commercial traders were net short 143,894 euro futures contracts, 9,370 more than a week before. That sits at 0 on our three year COT index, the most bearish reading in three years, and our EUR COT page charts it against the price. Crowded shorts can push the pair lower for longer, but they also make sharp short covering rallies more likely on a surprise.
Day to day the euro is moving modestly: the average gap between ECB fixings over the last 20 sessions was 25.3 pips, against last week's range of 109 pips in our feed. Most of the week's swing came around data, which is why Wednesday and Friday matter so much more than the days in between.
Scenarios
Upside scenario. A firm euro area inflation print on Wednesday, followed by soft US payrolls on Friday, would squeeze some of those record shorts. EUR/USD would first meet 1.1202, the previous Friday close, then 1.1223, Monday's high.
Downside scenario. Cooler euro inflation and strong US hiring would point the other way. A daily close below 1.1114 would put the pair below its three month fixing range and bring 1.1100 into view as the next round number.
Levels in focus
Range to watch: 1.1104 to 1.1214, half of last week's range either side of 1.1159.
- Resistance 1.1223: Monday's high, the top of last week's range.
- Resistance 1.1202: the close of 23 October.
- Support 1.1114: Wednesday's low in our feed.
- Support 1.1100: round number just under the three month fixing low of 1.1130.
Our record
Our EUR/USD signals have worked with this trend. On 21 October the desk sold EUR/USD at 1.1227 with a stop at 1.1287 and targets at 1.1207, 1.1187 and 1.1167; the trade closed at the third target for 60 pips. Every closed EUR/USD trade is listed on the EUR/USD results page, and the session levels are updated on EUR/USD today.
Free signals every trading day go to the free Forexuro Telegram channel. If you want more, VIP adds more signals and alerts, full live management of each position and priority support on Lifetime, at 拢99 a month or 拢549 one time through Forexuro VIP. Work out your lot size first with the EUR/USD pip value calculator.
Sources
- Eurostat: release calendar for euro indicators (link)
- ECB: key interest rates (link)
- ECB: euro foreign exchange reference rates (link)
- CFTC: Commitments of Traders, report of 27 October 2026 (link)
- Forexuro EUR COT page
- Forexuro signal record (CSV)
Prices are approximate and will have changed since the Friday close.
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