USD/CAD Weekly Outlook: LFS and NFP, 2 to 6 Nov

Last updated: 1 November 2026 · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy

Published 1 November 2026 · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team

Latest outlook: USD/CAD forecast this week always shows the newest edition, with links to every past week.

Our track record: every closed USD/CAD signal with entry, stop, targets and outcome is public in our full trade history.

Summary

• USD/CAD fell 37 pips on the week to 1.3974 after the Bank of Canada's first rate rise since July 2023.
• Canada's Labour Force Survey and US payrolls come out at the same minute on Friday 6 November.
• Speculators cut their net short in Canadian dollar futures by 8,285 contracts.

Where it stands

The Canadian dollar had a strong week. USD/CAD peaked at 1.4066 on Wednesday 28 October at 06:00 UK time, hours before the Bank of Canada raised its rate by a quarter point to 2.50%, the first rise since July 2023. The pair then fell on each of the next three days and closed Friday at 1.3974, its lowest daily close of the week and down from 1.4011.

Over the longer window, the ECB fixings put USD/CAD between 1.3740 and 1.4262 since 31 July. The pair is still in the upper half of that band, so there is room for the loonie to gain further if Canadian data back the Bank.

Events this week

• Friday 6 November, 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET): Canada Labour Force Survey for October. After a rate rise, a strong jobs report would confirm the Bank of Canada's turn.
• Friday 6 November, 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET): US nonfarm payrolls for October. Released at the same minute as the Canadian data, so the net surprise between the two decides the move.
• Thursday 5 November, 12:00 UK time (7:00am ET): Bank of England decision. A broad dollar move around the London lunchtime decision can set the tone before Friday.

What matters this week

Positioning has turned less bearish on the loonie. Non commercial traders were net short 66,424 Canadian dollar contracts on 27 October, 8,285 fewer than a week earlier, giving a three year COT index of 56, close to the middle of the range. Our CAD COT page shows the full history. That leaves room for shorts to keep covering if Friday favours Canada.

The pair moved 25.2 pips a day on average over the last 20 ECB fixings, but releases that coincide like Friday's tend to produce much larger single moves. Last week's range was 117 pips in our feed.

Scenarios

Upside scenario. Strong US payrolls alongside a weak Canadian report would reverse last week's drop, taking USD/CAD back to 1.4011, the previous Friday close, and then to 1.4066, last week's high.

Downside scenario. Firm Canadian hiring and soft US payrolls would extend the loonie's rally. A move below 1.3949, Friday's low, would point to 1.3900.

Levels in focus

Range to watch: 1.3916 to 1.4032, half of last week's range either side of 1.3974.

• Resistance 1.4066: Wednesday's high before the Bank of Canada rise.
• Resistance 1.4011: the close of 23 October.
• Support 1.3949: Friday's low in our feed.
• Support 1.3900: the next round number.

Our record

USD/CAD has a long history in our record. On 24 July 2024 the desk bought USD/CAD at 1.3795 with a stop at 1.3741 and targets at 1.3815, 1.3838 and 1.3855; it closed at the third target for 60 pips. USD/CAD does not yet have its own results page, so every closed trade is in our full trade history and the public signal record.

Free signals every trading day are posted in the free Forexuro Telegram channel. VIP adds more signals and alerts, full live management of every trade and priority support on Lifetime, for £99 a month or £549 one time on Forexuro VIP. Check each trade's value with the USD/CAD pip value calculator.

Sources

• Bank of Canada: key interest rates (link)
• Statistics Canada: Labour Force Survey (link)
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation schedule (link)
• CFTC: Commitments of Traders, report of 27 October 2026 (link)
• Forexuro CAD COT page
• Forexuro signal record (CSV)

Prices are approximate and will have changed since the Friday close.

Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.