USD/CHF Weekly Outlook: NFP and HICP, 2 to 6 Nov

Last updated: 1 November 2026 · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy

Published 1 November 2026 · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team

Latest outlook: USD/CHF forecast this week always shows the newest edition, with links to every past week.

Our track record: every closed USD/CHF signal with entry, stop, targets and outcome is public in our full trade history.

Summary

• USD/CHF ended the week exactly where it started, at 0.8251, after a 103 pip round trip.
• No Swiss event is scheduled; euro area inflation on Wednesday and US payrolls on Friday are the drivers.
• Speculators are net short the franc, but our three year COT index puts the position at 64, above the middle of the range.

Where it stands

The franc went nowhere in a busy week. USD/CHF climbed to 0.8310 on Wednesday 28 October at 07:00 UK time, the same morning the euro hit its low, then fell to 0.8207 on Friday at noon UK time and recovered to close at 0.8251, the same level as a week earlier. The ECB fixings put the pair between 0.7990 and 0.8353 since 31 July, so it sits in the upper part of that band.

The Swiss National Bank has kept its rate at 0% since June 2025 and next decides on 10 December at 08:30 UK time. With the Fed at 3.75% to 4.00%, the franc costs money to hold against the dollar, which usually limits its gains unless markets turn nervous.

Events this week

• Friday 6 November, 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET): US nonfarm payrolls. The main test of the dollar side of USD/CHF.
• Wednesday 4 November, 10:00 UK time (5:00am ET): euro area flash HICP. The franc trades closely with the euro, so Switzerland's biggest neighbour sets much of its tone.
• Thursday 5 November, 12:00 UK time (7:00am ET): Bank of England decision. A risk event for European currencies in the London session.

What matters this week

Non commercial traders were net short 20,049 Swiss franc contracts on 27 October, 1,899 more than a week earlier. Despite being short, the three year COT index stands at 64 out of 100 because the franc has seen much larger shorts in the last three years. Our CHF COT page charts it.

USD/CHF moved 22.2 pips a day on average over the last 20 ECB fixings, with a largest one day move of 112 pips on 20 August. Last week's 103 pip swing and flat finish show a pair waiting for a lead from the US data.

Scenarios

Upside scenario. Strong US payrolls would favour the dollar and take USD/CHF back to 0.8310, last week's high, then to 0.8353, the top of the three month fixing range.

Downside scenario. A weak jobs report would expose 0.8207, Friday's low, and then 0.8150.

Levels in focus

Range to watch: 0.8199 to 0.8302, half of last week's range either side of 0.8251.

• Resistance 0.8353: the three month fixing high.
• Resistance 0.8310: Wednesday's high in our feed.
• Support 0.8207: Friday's low.
• Support 0.8150: the next level below the range.

Our record

Our record includes clean USD/CHF trades. On 31 October 2025 the desk bought USD/CHF at 0.8028 with a stop at 0.7971 and targets at 0.8048, 0.8065 and 0.8078; it closed at the third target for 50 pips. USD/CHF does not have its own results page yet, so every closed trade is in the full trade history and the public signal record.

Get free signals every trading day in the free Forexuro Telegram channel. VIP is the full package: more signals and alerts, full live management of each trade and priority support on Lifetime, £99 a month or £549 one time on our plans page. Size each trade with the USD/CHF pip value calculator.

Sources

• Swiss National Bank (link)
• Eurostat: release calendar for euro indicators (link)
• ECB: euro foreign exchange reference rates (link)
• CFTC: Commitments of Traders, report of 27 October 2026 (link)
• Forexuro CHF COT page
• Forexuro signal record (CSV)

Prices are approximate and will have changed since the Friday close.

Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.