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Latest outlook: XAU/USD forecast this week always shows the newest edition, with links to every past week.
Next week: the gold forecast next week page switches to the new edition every Sunday and checks this week's levels against real prices.
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Free on Telegram. Follow our gold levels in the free Forexuro channel before and after Friday's US jobs report.
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- Gold lost 3.03% on the week and fell $143.59 on Friday alone, closing at the weekly low of $3,876.73 in our feed.
- The US jobs report on Friday 6 November is the main scheduled event for gold this week.
- Large speculators cut their net long in gold futures by 13,414 contracts to 186,451, a three year COT index of 30.
Where it stands
Gold spent the first half of the week holding above $4,000. Our hourly feed recorded a high of $4,079.83 on Wednesday 28 October at 20:00 UK time, and the metal still closed Thursday at $4,020.32. Friday then broke the floor: spot gold closed at $3,876.73, the lowest print of the week, down from $3,997.89 a week earlier. That is a weekly fall of 3.03%, and Friday alone took off $143.59, more than the whole weekly loss.
The drop came as the dollar firmed and US rates stayed high. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October by a 10 to 2 vote, and the two dissenters wanted a rise. A central bank still debating rises is a headwind for a metal that pays no interest, which is why gold reacts so strongly to US data surprises.
Events this week
- Friday 6 November, 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET): US nonfarm payrolls for October. September showed only 29,000 new jobs, unemployment at 4.2% and average hourly earnings up 3.0% from a year earlier, so a second weak month would challenge the case for another Fed rise.
- Thursday 5 November, 12:00 UK time (7:00am ET): Bank of England decision. Gold is priced in dollars, but a big move in sterling during London hours often spills into the dollar and gold at the same time.
- Wednesday 4 November, 10:00 UK time (5:00am ET): euro area flash inflation for October. The euro is the largest weight in the dollar index, so a surprise here moves the dollar side of gold during the European morning.
What matters this week
Positioning has cooled but is far from washed out. In the Commitments of Traders report for Tuesday 27 October, non commercial traders were net long 186,451 gold futures contracts, 13,414 fewer than a week earlier. Our three year COT index puts that at 30 out of 100, in the lower third of its range, which leaves room for more selling if the jobs report is strong. The full history is on our gold COT page.
US inflation is the other half of the story. Annual CPI inflation rose to 3.7% in September from 3.4%, and PCE inflation reached 3.6%. As long as inflation runs that hot, every strong jobs number keeps the December Fed meeting (8 to 9 December) open for a rise, and that keeps pressure on gold. A weak payrolls figure would do the opposite and could quickly bring buyers back above $3,900.
Scenarios
Upside scenario. A soft jobs report on Friday, with hiring close to September's 29,000 and slower wage growth, would weaken the dollar and lower the odds of a December rise. Gold would then have room to retake $3,997.89, last week's close and the old $4,000 shelf, with Wednesday's high at $4,079.83 as the next test.
Downside scenario. Strong hiring and firm wages would back the Fed members who voted for a rise. Gold has already closed at its weekly low, so a break of $3,850 on a strong report would open the round number of $3,800. The four hour candles in the chart show how little support Friday's slide left behind.
Levels in focus
Range to watch: 3,775.18 to 3,978.28, half of last week's range either side of 3,876.73.
- Resistance $4,079.83: the week's high in our feed, Wednesday 28 October.
- Resistance $3,997.89: the previous Friday close, just under $4,000.
- Support $3,850: first round number below Friday's close.
- Support $3,800: the next round number and a natural target if payrolls are strong.
Our record
Gold has been our busiest market in this slide. Our XAU/USD sells on 27, 28, 29 and 30 October all closed at the third target. On Friday 30 October the desk sold gold at $3,975 with a stop at $4,025, exactly $50 above entry, and targets at $3,970, $3,950 and $3,935; the trade closed at the third target for 400 pips. Every closed gold trade with its entry, stop and outcome is on the XAU/USD results page, and the daily gold levels sit on XAU/USD today.
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Sources
- CFTC: Commitments of Traders, report of 27 October 2026 (link)
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation schedule (link)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendar and statements (link)
- LBMA: precious metal prices (link)
- Forexuro gold COT page
- Forexuro signal record (CSV)
Prices are approximate and will have changed since the Friday close. See also: Gold price today.
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