XAU/USD Weekly Outlook: US CPI, 9 to 13 Nov

Last updated: 7 November 2026 · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy

Published 7 November 2026 · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team

Latest outlook: XAU/USD forecast this week always shows the newest edition, with links to every past week.

Next week: the gold forecast next week page switches to the new edition every Sunday and checks this week's levels against real prices.

Our track record: every closed XAU/USD signal with entry, stop, targets and outcome is public on the XAU/USD results page.

Summary

• Gold closed at $4,070.93 on Friday after a volatile rebound that took the metal from a weekly low near $3,894 to a high of $4,138.79 in our feed.
• US CPI for October on Tuesday 10 November at 13:30 UK time is the main scheduled event for gold this week.
• Non commercial traders stayed net long 179,548 gold futures as of 3 November, trimming 6,903 contracts, with a three year COT index of 26.

Where it stands

Gold reversed last week's slide. After the prior Friday close at $3,876.73, the metal climbed through early November, printed a weekly high of $4,138.79 in our hourly feed, and finished Friday 6 November at $4,070.93. That is a weekly gain of about 5.0% from the previous Friday, even after US payrolls beat with 165,000 jobs and the dollar index closed at 102.32.

The Fed still holds its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% after the late October meeting. A metal that pays no interest stays sensitive to every inflation print that could shift the odds of a December move, which is why Tuesday's CPI matters more than the midweek calendar for gold.

Friday's dollar index close at 102.32 came after the 165,000 payrolls print, yet gold still finished the week above $4,000. That mix tells you the metal is trading the rate path, not just the headline dollar strength. Traders who sold the midweek spike toward $4,139 will watch whether Tuesday's annual and core CPI readings reopen that high or send the metal back through $4,000.

Events this week

• Tuesday 10 November, 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET): US CPI inflation for October 2026. Gold is priced in dollars, so a hot print that firms the Fed path usually weighs on the metal, while a cool print can reopen the path toward $4,100.
• Thursday 12 November, 07:00 UK time (7:00am ET): UK GDP monthly estimate for September. Sterling moves often spill into the dollar during the London morning, and that dollar swing feeds straight into gold.

What matters this week

Positioning is still long but no longer extreme. In the Commitments of Traders report for Tuesday 3 November, non commercial traders were net long 179,548 gold futures contracts, 6,903 fewer than a week earlier. Our three year COT index sits at 26 out of 100. The full series is on our gold COT page.

September CPI had already put inflation back in focus after the payrolls beat. With gold closing the week above $4,000 again, traders will use Tuesday's annual and core readings to decide whether the rebound holds or whether the dollar's post payrolls firmness returns.

Gold's weekly swing from about $3,894 to $4,139 is wider than most G10 pairs. Half of that range either side of $4,070.93 sets the band from $3,948.47 to $4,193.39. Inside that band, $4,106.27 (Friday's high) and the $4,000 round number are the practical levels for London and New York.

Scenarios

Upside scenario. A cool October CPI that lowers December hike odds would weaken the dollar and let gold retest Friday's area near $4,106 and the weekly high at $4,138.79.

Downside scenario. A hot CPI print that keeps the Fed path firm would favour the dollar. A break of the $4,000 round number would open $3,950, half of last week's range below Friday's close.

Levels in focus

Range to watch: 3,948.47 to 4,193.39, half of last week's range either side of 4,070.93.

• Resistance $4,138.79: the week's high in our feed.
• Resistance $4,106.27: Friday's session high.
• Support $4,000: first round number below Friday's close.
• Support $3,950: the next shelf if CPI is firm.

Levels for the London and New York sessions. For XAU/USD, watch resistance at $4,106.27 and $4,138.79 and support at $4,000 and $3,950 around the London open at 08:00 UK time (3:00am ET) and the New York open at 13:00 UK time (8:00am ET). Tuesday's CPI at 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET) falls in the New York morning; Thursday's UK GDP at 07:00 UK time lands before London's cash open and can set the dollar tone that gold then trades.

Our record

Gold stayed active on our desk. On 5 November the desk sold gold at $4,125 with a stop at $4,175 and targets at $4,120, $4,100 and $4,075; the trade closed at the third target for 500 pips. On 3 November a buy at $3,947 with a $50 stop reached the third target at $3,997. Every closed gold trade is on the XAU/USD results page, and the daily levels sit on XAU/USD today.

We post free signals every trading day in the free Forexuro Telegram channel. VIP is the full package for gold traders: more alerts, live management of every open trade and priority support on Lifetime, priced at £99 a month or £549 once on VIP plans. Size the stop with the gold position size calculator before you click.

Sources

• CFTC: Commitments of Traders, report of 3 November 2026 (link)
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics: consumer price index (link)
• Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendar and statements (link)
• Forexuro gold COT page
• Forexuro signal record (CSV)

Prices are approximate and will have changed since the Friday close. See also: Gold price today.

Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.