Week ahead: US midterms, the RBA, the Bank of England and payrolls crowd the first week of November

The first week of November is one of the busiest of the year for currency traders. The Reserve Bank of Australia decides on Tuesday at 03:30 UK time, Americans vote in the midterm elections the same day, the Bank of England announces on Thursday at 12:00 UK time and the US jobs report lands on Friday at 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET). It follows a week in which the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Japan all left rates unchanged, and a Friday in which gold dropped to its lowest level in a year.

This weekend briefing looks at where the dollar, the euro, sterling, the Australian dollar, gold and oil closed in October, and at what each event next week could mean for prices. All times are UK time, with New York time added for US events. Remember that US clocks go back on Sunday 1 November, so the gap between London and New York returns to 5 hours from Monday. Our free Telegram channel will post signals and alerts through the week.

How October ended for the dollar and the majors

The ICE dollar index closed Friday at 101.96, up 0.5% in October and its second monthly rise in a row. The euro ended the month at $1.1172 on the European Central Bank reference rate, down 1.6% after touching its lowest level since May 2025 on Thursday. Sterling closed near $1.3396, up about 1% for the month, and the Australian dollar closed at $0.7032 in New York, up about 1.2%. The yen ended October broadly flat near 157.6 per dollar after the Bank of Japan held rates at 1.25% on Friday.

The split tells the story of the month. Currencies whose central banks are still raising rates, the pound and the Aussie, gained on the dollar. The euro, hit by high energy costs and France's budget worries, lost ground, even though Eurostat said on Friday that the euro area grew 0.4% in the third quarter, better than the 0.2% economists expected, while France shrank 0.1%. You can check the latest levels on the EUR/USD today, GBP/USD today and USD/JPY today pages before Monday's open, and see every closed signal on the EUR/USD results and GBP/USD results pages.

Why AI shares pulled Treasury yields lower

The last days of October brought a different kind of nerves. Results from Alphabet revived doubts about how much companies are spending on artificial intelligence, stocks fell and money moved into government bonds. The US 10 year Treasury yield dropped to 4.8958% and the 30 year to 5.2623%, both their lowest in over a month.

That pulled the dollar back from its highs. In US data on Friday, the employment cost index rose 0.8% in the third quarter and 3.4% over the year, in line with forecasts, so wages added little new pressure. Sim Moh Siong, FX strategist at OCBC, said in a note that the reaction looked different from an energy driven sell off: rather than lifting the dollar and US yields, the AI worries came with lower Treasury yields and a softer or subdued dollar. If that pattern holds, a fresh slide in technology shares next week would be a weight on the dollar rather than a support.

Gold at a one year low and oil still climbing

Gold fell sharply on Friday. Spot gold fell as much as 3.2% to $3,891.67 an ounce, its weakest level since late October 2025, and December gold futures settled 3.29% lower at $3,898.90. The metal lost about 6% in October, its worst October since 2008 and its second monthly fall in a row. Silver dropped below $50, settling at $49.28. Brent's December contract expired on Friday at $117.64 a barrel, up 2.40% on the day, as oil headed for its fourth monthly gain in a row.

For gold traders the point is that falling yields have not helped this month. Yields fell late in the week, yet gold still slid, because higher oil keeps inflation worries alive and traders see a strong chance of a Fed rise in December. The XAU/USD today page and the gold price today page track the move, the gold pip value calculator shows what a $10 move means for your position size, and the XAU/USD results page lists every closed gold signal.

US midterms on Tuesday: what the dollar may do

Americans vote on Tuesday 3 November. The first polls close from 23:00 UK time (6pm ET), so results arrive overnight and through the Asian session on Wednesday. Polls point to the Democrats winning at least one house of Congress, a split that Bloomberg reported fund managers mostly expect.

Citigroup strategist Daniel Tobon told Bloomberg that the dollar has tended to weaken after past midterms, especially when the result is a divided government, but he expects any dip to be short lived. "While election outcomes can influence sentiment in the short term, we believe investors should be careful not to overstate the long term impact on the US dollar," said Nathan Thooft of Manulife Investment Management. CIBC strategist Noah Buffam said the bigger question for currencies is how Washington acts on Iran after the vote, which links the dollar straight back to oil.

RBA on Tuesday and the Bank of England on Thursday

The Reserve Bank of Australia announces at 03:30 UK time on Tuesday 3 November (10:30pm ET on Monday), with its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. The cash rate is 4.60% after a rise in September. Australian inflation came in at 4.3% in the year to September, and after that release Bloomberg data put the chance of a further 0.25 point rise at about 85%. Details are on the RBA rate decision page.

The Bank of England follows on Thursday 5 November at 12:00 UK time (7:00am ET), with its Monetary Policy Report. Bank Rate is 3.75%. UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September from 3.1%, and FXStreet reported late in October that markets saw a rise on 5 November as close to certain. Sterling's 1% October gain shows how much of that is already in the price, so the vote split and the guidance on December will matter more than the decision itself. See the Bank of England rate decision page and our guide to central bank rate decisions.

Payrolls on Friday: what the last report showed

The US jobs report for October comes out on Friday 6 November at 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET), at the same time as Canada's labour force survey. The September report showed 29,000 new jobs, an unemployment rate of 4.2% and average hourly earnings up 3.0% on a year earlier. With Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signalling a readiness to act this week, a firm report would add to the case for a December rise.

Our guide to how payrolls move forex and gold explains the usual pattern on the day, and the non farm payrolls page lists past releases. Traders in the United States can find signal times in New York time on the forex signals for US traders page. The full week is on the economic calendar.

Trade the week with Forexuro

The free Forexuro Telegram channel posts free signals every trading day, usually between about 05:00 and 15:00 UK time, each with an entry, a stop and three targets. Around big events like these, the channel keeps you updated as prices react. You can see how past signals worked out on the gold, EUR/USD and GBP/USD results pages and in the Forexuro signals study.

VIP adds more signals and alerts, full live management of every trade and priority support on Lifetime, for £99 a month or £549 one time. The team never sends private messages first, so treat anyone who does as an impostor. Trading carries risk, and past results are not a reliable guide to future results.

Official sources

Official pages for the decisions, data and schedules behind this report.

• Eurostat: GDP up by 0.4% in the euro area, the euro area flash GDP estimate for the third quarter of 2026.
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Cost Index, September 2026, the 0.8% quarterly and 3.4% annual rise in compensation costs.
• European Central Bank: euro reference rate against the US dollar, the 30 October 2026 fix of 1.1172.
• Reserve Bank of Australia: schedule of releases, the 3 November decision and Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Bank of England: upcoming MPC dates, the 5 November announcement and Monetary Policy Report.
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation schedule, the release date for October payrolls.
• Office for National Statistics: inflation and price indices, UK CPI for September 2026.
• Australian Bureau of Statistics: Consumer Price Index, September 2026, Australian inflation before the RBA.

Frequently asked questions

Sources

• CNA with Reuters: Yen gains after BOJ; AI jitters dent dollar
• Mining.com: Gold price slumps to one year low, silver price breaks $50
• CNBC: Yen steady before BOJ, AI jitters drive Treasury rally, weigh on dollar
• CNBC: Gold slips as higher oil, US inflation data bolster Fed hike bets
• Bloomberg via Moneycontrol: Dollar's rate fueled rally set to ride out US midterm gridlock
• ABC News: Inflation rate rises to 4.3 per cent in September, raising rate hike expectations
• FXStreet: The British pound goes into retail sales with its November hike already priced
• Data for the charts: October changes to the Friday 30 October 2026 close (ICE US dollar index, ECB reference rate for EUR/USD, New York close for GBP/USD and AUD/USD); times from the Reserve Bank of Australia, Eurostat, the Bank of England, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Forexuro economic calendar.

Keep reading

Gold signal results · XAU/USD today · GBP/USD today · Bank of England rate decision · Economic calendar

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