AUD/USD Weekly Outlook: RBA Decision, 2 to 6 Nov

Last updated: 1 November 2026 · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy

Published 1 November 2026 · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team

Latest outlook: AUD/USD forecast this week always shows the newest edition, with links to every past week.

Our track record: every closed AUD/USD signal with entry, stop, targets and outcome is public on the AUD/USD results page.

Summary

• AUD/USD held a tight 48 pip range last week and closed at 0.7032, almost unchanged from 0.7036.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia decides early on Tuesday 3 November, the first big event of the week for any currency.
• Speculators hold their largest net short in Australian dollar futures of the last three years.

Where it stands

The Aussie was the calmest major last week. Its low was 0.7012 on Monday 26 October at 23:00 UK time and its high 0.7060 on Wednesday evening, and it closed Friday at 0.7032. The ECB fixings show the pair between 0.6911 and 0.7225 since 31 July, so it sits in the middle of its three month band and well above the round 0.7000.

That calm sits on top of a hawkish central bank. The RBA raised its cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September, its fourth rise this year after February, March and May, which leaves Australia with the highest policy rate among the major central banks and well above the Fed's 3.75% to 4.00%.

Events this week

• Tuesday 3 November, 03:30 UK time (10:30pm ET on Monday 2 November): RBA rate decision. It arrives in the Asian session, so the first reaction happens before London opens.
• Friday 6 November, 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET): US nonfarm payrolls. The dollar side of AUD/USD gets its test at the end of the week.
• Thursday 5 November, 12:00 UK time (7:00am ET): Bank of England decision. A second central bank in the same week that may lean hawkish, worth watching for spillover into commodity currencies.

What matters this week

Positioning is as bearish as it gets. In the 27 October COT report, non commercial traders were net short 128,315 Australian dollar contracts, 1,023 more than a week earlier, a three year COT index of 0. Our AUD COT page shows how rarely shorts have been this large. With a central bank still raising rates, that is a crowded bet against the currency.

The pair has moved 21.8 pips a day on average over the last 20 ECB fixings, and its largest single day move since July was 99 pips on 15 October. An RBA surprise in either direction could produce a move on that scale in a single Asian session.

Scenarios

Upside scenario. Another rise from the RBA, or a clear signal of one in December, would hit the record shorts. AUD/USD would first meet 0.7060, Wednesday's high, then 0.7100.

Downside scenario. A hold with a softer message would let the shorts press. A break of 0.7012, last week's low, would put 0.7000 and then 0.6950 in play, with strong US payrolls adding pressure on Friday.

Levels in focus

Range to watch: 0.7008 to 0.7056, half of last week's range either side of 0.7032.

• Resistance 0.7100: round number above the range.
• Resistance 0.7060: Wednesday's high in our feed.
• Support 0.7012: Monday's low, just above 0.7000.
• Support 0.6950: round number in the lower half of the three month band.

Our record

Our AUD/USD record shows the pair can trend cleanly. On 16 October the desk bought AUD/USD at 0.6956 with a stop at 0.6901 and targets at 0.6976, 0.6991 and 0.7009; the trade closed at the third target for 53 pips. Every closed AUD/USD trade is listed on the AUD/USD results page.

The free Forexuro Telegram channel posts free signals every trading day. VIP brings more signals and alerts, full live management of each trade and priority support on Lifetime, for £99 a month or £549 one time from our VIP page. Use the AUD/USD pip value calculator to size the trade from the stop.

Sources

• Reserve Bank of Australia: schedule of events (link)
• Reserve Bank of Australia: cash rate (link)
• ECB: euro foreign exchange reference rates (link)
• CFTC: Commitments of Traders, report of 27 October 2026 (link)
• Forexuro AUD COT page
• Forexuro signal record (CSV)

Prices are approximate and will have changed since the Friday close. See also: RBA decision guide.

Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.