EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook: HICP and BoE, 2 to 6 Nov

Last updated: 1 November 2026 · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy

Published 1 November 2026 · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team

Latest outlook: EUR/GBP forecast this week always shows the newest edition, with links to every past week.

Our track record: we do not signal EUR/GBP directly; every closed trade on its two legs is public on EUR/USD results and GBP/USD results.

Summary

• EUR/GBP fell 42 pips to 0.8334, below its three month fixing low, as sterling outperformed the euro.
• Euro area inflation on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday are both direct drivers of this cross.
• Speculators are far shorter the euro (COT index 0) than sterling (COT index 11).

Where it stands

The cross slid all week. It was highest on Monday 26 October at 0.8397 at 10:00 UK time and lowest on Friday at 17:00 at 0.8328, closing at 0.8334, down from 0.8376. The ECB fixings show EUR/GBP between 0.8338 and 0.8606 since 31 July, so Friday's close was below the lowest fixing of that window. The pound gained on the dollar last week while the euro lost, and the cross carries both moves.

The rate gap favours sterling: Bank Rate is 3.75% against an ECB deposit rate of 2.50%. With UK inflation at 3.5% in September and three Bank members voting for a rise in September, markets give the Bank more room to tighten than the ECB.

Events this week

• Wednesday 4 November, 10:00 UK time (5:00am ET): euro area flash HICP for October. The euro side of the cross reacts first; a firm print would slow the slide.
• Thursday 5 November, 12:00 UK time (7:00am ET): Bank of England decision and Monetary Policy Report. The vote split is the key detail for the sterling side.
• Friday 6 November, 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET): US nonfarm payrolls. It moves EUR/USD and GBP/USD by different amounts, so the cross can still shift on the day.

What matters this week

The COT data show why the cross has been falling. On 27 October non commercial traders were net short 143,894 euro contracts, a three year COT index of 0, against a net short of 79,414 sterling contracts, an index of 11. Both are bearish, but the euro short is the more extreme. Our EUR COT page and GBP COT page show both.

This is the quietest pair we cover: it moved 15.5 pips a day on average over the last 20 ECB fixings, and its largest one day move since July was only 34 pips. Last week's 69 pip range was large by its standards.

Scenarios

Upside scenario. Firm euro inflation followed by a Bank of England hold with fewer votes for a rise would lift the cross back to 0.8376, the previous Friday close, and then to 0.8397.

Downside scenario. Soft euro inflation and a hawkish Bank would extend the break below the three month range, pointing to 0.8300.

Levels in focus

Range to watch: 0.8299 to 0.8369, half of last week's range either side of 0.8334.

• Resistance 0.8397: Monday's high.
• Resistance 0.8376: the close of 23 October.
• Support 0.8328: Friday's low, under the three month fixing low of 0.8338.
• Support 0.8300: round number below.

Our record

We do not signal EUR/GBP directly, but both of its legs are in our record. On 20 October the desk sold EUR/USD at 1.1214 with a stop at 1.1274 and targets at 1.1194, 1.1174 and 1.1154; the trade closed at the third target for 60 pips. The euro and sterling legs each have a results page: EUR/USD results and GBP/USD results.

The free Forexuro Telegram channel has free signals every trading day on the euro and the pound. VIP adds more signals and alerts, full live management of each trade and priority support on Lifetime, for £99 a month or £549 one time on the VIP page. The EUR/GBP pip value calculator shows the value of a pip in your currency.

Sources

• Eurostat: release calendar for euro indicators (link)
• Bank of England: upcoming MPC dates (link)
• ECB: euro foreign exchange reference rates (link)
• CFTC: Commitments of Traders, report of 27 October 2026 (link)
• Forexuro EUR COT page
• Forexuro GBP COT page

Prices are approximate and will have changed since the Friday close.

Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.