EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook: UK GDP Week, 9 to 13 Nov

Last updated: 7 November 2026 · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy

Published 7 November 2026 · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team

Latest outlook: EUR/GBP forecast this week always shows the newest edition, with links to every past week.

Next week: the EUR/GBP forecast next week page switches to the new edition every Sunday and checks this week's levels against real prices.

Our track record: we do not signal EUR/GBP directly; every closed trade on its two legs is public on EUR/USD results and GBP/USD results.

Summary

• EUR/GBP closed at 0.8343 on Friday, slightly above 0.8334 a week earlier, inside a tight weekly band from 0.8329 to 0.8361.
• UK GDP on Thursday 12 November at 07:00 UK time is the cross's home event; US CPI on Tuesday sets risk tone first.
• Euro futures stay extremely short while sterling shorts were cut sharply in the latest COT report.

Where it stands

The cross barely moved on the week. Our feed shows a high of 0.8361, a low of 0.8329 and a Friday close at 0.8343. After the Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4%, sterling held its own against the euro even as both currencies softened versus the dollar.

With Bank Rate at 4% and the ECB deposit rate at 2.50%, the rate gap still favours sterling on a relative basis, which keeps EUR/GBP capped unless UK growth disappoints on Thursday.

EUR/GBP barely budged, closing at 0.8343 inside a 32 pip weekly band. After the Bank of England's hike to 4%, sterling held its relative edge against the euro even as both softened versus the dollar. That leaves Thursday's UK GDP as the event that can finally break the tight range.

Events this week

• Thursday 12 November, 07:00 UK time (7:00am ET): UK GDP monthly estimate for September 2026. Soft UK growth after the Bank's hike would lift EUR/GBP toward 0.8361; a firm reading would press the cross back toward 0.8329.
• Tuesday 10 November, 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET): US CPI inflation for October 2026. The dollar print moves both legs; the cross often waits for the London session to show whether euro or sterling absorbed more of the dollar swing.

What matters this week

Euro futures remain extremely short (net short 157,791 contracts, COT index 0) while sterling shorts were cut by 19,593 contracts to 59,821 (COT index 18.9). That mix can keep EUR/GBP heavy unless UK data turn soft. See our EUR and GBP COT pages.

Last week's range in our feed was only about 32 pips. That tight band can break quickly around Thursday's GDP.

Half of last week's tiny range either side of 0.8343 sets 0.8328 to 0.8359. Extreme euro shorts versus trimmed sterling shorts keep the cross heavy unless UK growth disappoints enough to revive euro relative strength.

Scenarios

Upside scenario. Soft UK GDP that weighs on sterling would lift EUR/GBP toward 0.8352 and 0.8361.

Downside scenario. Firm UK growth that support sterling would press the cross toward 0.8329 and the lower side of the range to watch.

Levels in focus

Range to watch: 0.8328 to 0.8359, half of last week's range either side of 0.8343.

• Resistance 0.8361: the week's high in our feed.
• Resistance 0.8352: Friday's session high area.
• Support 0.8334: prior Friday close area.
• Support 0.8329: the week's low.

Levels for the London and New York sessions. For EUR/GBP, watch resistance at 0.8352 and 0.8361 and support at 0.8334 and 0.8329 around the London open at 08:00 UK time (3:00am ET) and the New York open at 13:00 UK time (8:00am ET). Thursday's UK GDP at 07:00 UK time is the London morning print for this cross; Tuesday's CPI at 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET) mainly sets the dollar backdrop both legs then trade.

Our record

We do not signal EUR/GBP directly. Every closed trade on its two legs is public on EUR/USD results and GBP/USD results. Size related trades with the EUR/GBP pip value calculator.

We post free euro and sterling signals every trading day in the free Forexuro Telegram channel. VIP is the full package for both legs: more signals, live management and Lifetime priority support at £99 a month or £549 once on VIP plans. Cross pip value: EUR/GBP calculator.

Sources

• ONS: GDP release calendar (link)
• Bank of England: Monetary Policy Committee decisions (link)
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics: consumer price index (link)
• CFTC: Commitments of Traders, report of 3 November 2026 (link)
• Forexuro EUR COT page
• Forexuro GBP COT page

Prices are approximate and will have changed since the Friday close.

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