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Hot US inflation lifts the dollar and USD/JPY to 158.8 as Fed hike bets grow, with the US bond market shut for Veterans Day
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USD/JPY news: the dollar firmed on Tuesday after US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October against 0.3% expected, and USD/JPY reached about 158.8 on our feed by Wednesday morning. Core prices rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected, and Fed speakers opened the door to a bigger December rise, while a Bank of Japan summary showed calls for faster rate rises in Tokyo.
Below: what the inflation report and the Fed speakers said, where the yen, gold and the dollar stood on our feed, what the Bank of Japan summary added, and the dates still to come this week in UK time with ET in brackets. Levels for the majors and gold appear in the free Forexuro Telegram channel every trading day.
Free on Telegram. Yen, gold and dollar levels on trading days, with entry, stop and three targets.
US inflation and the Fed: what changed on Tuesday
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index rose 0.4% in October after 0.6% in September, above the 0.3% economists expected in a Reuters poll. Core prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2%. The bureau published no yearly rate, because last year's government shutdown stopped it collecting the data. Our US CPI release dates page lists the next reports in UK time and ET.
A few hours before the report, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he planned to back a quarter point rise at the 8 and 9 December meeting, and that a 50 basis point rise should be considered if core CPI was around 0.3% or more. After the figures, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the Fed needs at least half a point more of rate rises before it pauses. CME FedWatch early on Wednesday in Asia showed a December rise fully priced, with about a 9% chance of the larger 50 basis point move, compared with about 84% for any rise a day earlier, according to CNBC and Reuters. The current policy rate is 3.75% to 4.00%.
Treasury yields rose. The US 10 year yield was near 5.0% on Wednesday and the two year about 4.75%, according to Reuters. Our guide to the odds of a December Fed rise covers the US side in more detail.
USD/JPY news: the yen, gold and the dollar on Wednesday morning
The dollar index rose about 0.5% on Tuesday and was near 102.2 early on Wednesday, its highest since 28 October, according to CNBC and Reuters. On our price feed USD/JPY was near 158.8 at about 07:00 UK time, up from about 158.0 on Tuesday morning. The USD/JPY today page carries the morning desk note and the session levels.
| Market | Level on our feed, about 07:00 UK time, 11 November |
|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 158.82 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1155 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3336 |
| Spot gold | $4,062 |
Gold took the brunt of the move. Spot gold fell nearly 3% on Tuesday to a low of $4,017 and edged up to about $4,040 in early Asian trade on Wednesday, as higher rate expectations raise the cost of holding a metal that pays no interest, Reuters reported. The gold analysis today page has the levels we are watching. EUR/USD fell about 0.55% on Tuesday to near 1.116. Brent crude fell to about $90.7 a barrel on Tuesday, its lowest in two months, and cheaper oil is a help to Japan, which imports most of its energy.
What the Bank of Japan summary added
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 1.25% on 30 October. The summary of opinions from that meeting, released on Tuesday morning Tokyo time, showed a board leaning toward the next move. One member said the Bank should decide on the next rise "when it is possible without becoming overly cautious". Another described "a new phase in which the Bank needs to step up the pace" of bringing rates to the neutral level, and two others called for reaching that level soon, Reuters reported.
The summary also showed caution, with several members pointing to soft consumption. Analysts polled by Reuters expect a rise to 1.5% at the next meeting, which ends on 18 December, and most see the peak at 1.75% or 2%. With both central banks expected to tighten, the gap between US and Japanese rates matters more than either decision alone, and traders still watch the 160 area, as our note on USD/JPY signals and intervention risk explains. Our Bank of Japan decision page keeps every past change.
Veterans Day and the rest of the week
Wednesday 11 November is Veterans Day in the United States. The US bond market is closed and US stocks open as normal. Forex trades through the day, but liquidity in dollar pairs is thinner while Treasury trading is shut, and spreads can widen. The forex market open page shows the live session status, and the pip value calculator helps size a trade when spreads move.
| Date | Event | UK time | ET |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday 11 November | Veterans Day: US bond market closed, stocks open | all day | all day |
| Thursday 12 November | UK GDP monthly estimate, September | 07:00 | 2:00am |
| Friday 13 November | US producer prices, October | 13:30 | 8:30am |
| Wednesday 9 December | Fed decision | 19:00 | 2:00pm |
| Friday 18 December | Bank of Japan decision | Tokyo morning | overnight |
Our guide to CPI and PPI data explains why Friday's producer prices can still move the dollar after the consumer figures.
Follow the yen with Forexuro
The free Forexuro Telegram channel posts free signals every trading day, usually between about 05:00 and 15:00 UK time, each with an entry, a stop and three targets. One USD/JPY buy that closed on 5 January 2026 reached all three targets, from 156.77 to 157.77, for +100 pips; every closed trade is on the USD/JPY results page. VIP is the full package: more signals and alerts, full live management of every trade and priority support on Lifetime, for £99 a month or £549 one time. Trading carries risk, and past results are not a reliable guide to future results.
Official sources
Official pages for the decisions, data and schedules behind this report.
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, October 2026 release
- Federal Reserve, FOMC meeting calendar
- Bank of Japan, Summary of Opinions, meeting of 29 and 30 October 2026
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Schedule of releases for 2026, including the PPI on 13 November
- Office for National Statistics, GDP monthly estimate, UK: September 2026, release page
- SIFMA, US bond market holiday schedule
Frequently asked questions
What did US CPI show for October 2026?
Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October after 0.6% in September, against 0.3% expected. Core prices rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics gave no yearly rate.
What are the odds of a Fed rise in December?
CME FedWatch early on Wednesday showed a December rise as fully priced, with about a 9% chance of a 50 basis point move, up from about 84% for any rise before the inflation report.
Where was USD/JPY on Wednesday 11 November 2026?
Near 158.8 on our feed at about 07:00 UK time, up from about 158.0 on Tuesday morning after the US inflation report.
Is the forex market open on Veterans Day 2026?
Yes. On Wednesday 11 November the US bond market is closed and US stocks are open, and forex trades as normal with thinner dollar liquidity.
When is the next Bank of Japan decision?
The next meeting ends on Friday 18 December 2026. Analysts polled by Reuters expect a rise to 1.5%.
Sources
- CNBC: CPI inflation report, October 2026 (10 November 2026)
- Reuters via Investing.com: Fed officials open door to a quicker round of rate hikes (10 November 2026)
- Reuters via CNBC: Gold edges higher after sharp selloff, Fed hike bets weigh (11 November 2026)
- Reuters via CNBC: Dollar gains traction as Fed speakers warn of risks from inflation (11 November 2026)
- Reuters: Bonds reel as hot inflation fuels jumbo Fed hike fears (11 November 2026)
- Reuters via Investing.com: Bank of Japan debated need for faster rate hikes, October summary shows (10 November 2026)
- Data for the chart: Forexuro's hourly price feed, 2 to 11 November 2026.
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