NZD/USD Weekly Outlook: RBA and NFP, 2 to 6 Nov

Last updated: 1 November 2026 · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy

Published 1 November 2026 · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team

Latest outlook: NZD/USD forecast this week always shows the newest edition, with links to every past week.

Our track record: every closed NZD/USD signal with entry, stop, targets and outcome is public on the NZD/USD results page.

Summary

• The kiwi was the weakest major last week, down 70 pips or 1.23% to 0.5631.
• No New Zealand event is scheduled, so the RBA on Tuesday and US payrolls on Friday set the tone.
• Speculators are close to their most bearish on the kiwi in three years, with a COT index of 8.

Where it stands

The kiwi fell harder than any other major. It peaked at 0.5704 on Tuesday 27 October at 13:00 UK time, dropped to 0.5598 by Wednesday morning, the day the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its cash rate at 2.75%, and closed Friday at 0.5631, down from 0.5701. Since 31 July the ECB fixings show NZD/USD between 0.5589 and 0.5987, so last week's low came within a few pips of the bottom of that band.

The policy gap explains much of it. New Zealand's cash rate is 2.75% after a rise on 3 September, against 4.60% in Australia and 3.75% to 4.00% in the US. A currency with the lowest rate of the three tends to lag when the market is choosing between them.

Events this week

• Tuesday 3 November, 03:30 UK time (10:30pm ET on Monday 2 November): RBA decision. The kiwi often trades with the Australian dollar, and a hawkish RBA widens the gap between the two central banks.
• Friday 6 November, 13:30 UK time (8:30am ET): US nonfarm payrolls. The single biggest event for the dollar side of the pair this week.
• Wednesday 4 November, 10:00 UK time (5:00am ET): euro area flash inflation. A softer euro would support the dollar broadly and weigh on the kiwi.

What matters this week

In the 27 October COT report, non commercial traders were net short 57,690 New Zealand dollar contracts, 459 fewer than a week earlier, a three year COT index of 8 out of 100. That is deep in bearish territory, with only a little trimming. The weekly reports are collected on our COT reports hub.

NZD/USD moved 19.6 pips a day on average over the last 20 ECB fixings, but its largest one day move since July, 89 pips, came on 28 October, the RBNZ day. That shows how fast the pair can move once a central bank speaks.

Scenarios

Upside scenario. Weak US payrolls and a broadly softer dollar would give the kiwi room to recover towards 0.5704, last week's high, with 0.5750 above.

Downside scenario. A hawkish RBA that lifts the Australian dollar against the kiwi, plus firm US data, would put 0.5598 under pressure. Below that, the pair would leave its three month fixing range and 0.5550 is the next round number.

Levels in focus

Range to watch: 0.5578 to 0.5684, half of last week's range either side of 0.5631.

• Resistance 0.5750: round number above last week's high.
• Resistance 0.5704: Tuesday's high in our feed.
• Support 0.5598: Wednesday's low, near the three month fixing low of 0.5589.
• Support 0.5550: round number below the range.

Our record

Our kiwi signals have caught this weakness. On 21 October the desk sold NZD/USD at 0.5693 with a stop at 0.5745 and targets at 0.5673, 0.5657 and 0.5641; the trade closed at the third target for 52 pips. Every closed NZD/USD trade is on the NZD/USD results page.

We share free signals every trading day in the free Forexuro Telegram channel. VIP is the full package: more signals and alerts, full live management and priority support on Lifetime, at £99 a month or £549 one time on the VIP plans page. The NZD/USD pip value calculator shows what each pip is worth for your account.

Sources

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (link)
• Reserve Bank of Australia: schedule of events (link)
• ECB: euro foreign exchange reference rates (link)
• CFTC: Commitments of Traders, report of 27 October 2026 (link)
• Forexuro COT reports
• Forexuro signal record (CSV)

Prices are approximate and will have changed since the Friday close. See also: RBA decision guide.

Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.