USD/JPY weekly outlook: week of 26 October 2026
A sourced look at what could move USD/JPY in a week packed with central bank decisions. Analysis only, not a forecast you can bank on.
Last updated: · By Forexuro Desk · Editorial policy
Published · Reviewed by the Forexuro Desk editorial team
Latest outlook: USD/JPY forecast this week always shows the newest edition, with links to every past week.
Analysis, not advice. This outlook describes scenarios based on published news and scheduled events. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it does not guarantee any price, and markets can move in ways no outlook anticipates. Levels quoted from third parties are their analysis, not Forexuro trade signals. Trading carries a high risk of loss; read the risk disclosure.
Free on Telegram. Join the free Forexuro Telegram channel for daily USD/JPY and gold updates through this central bank week.
Free, opens TelegramSummary
- USD/JPY fell 0.75% last week to 156.81, after a range of 156.07 to 158.59 (Bullquill, Yahoo Finance data).
- Key events: FOMC decision; US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation; Tokyo CPI (October); Bank of Japan decision and Outlook Report.
- Upside scenario and downside scenario below; neither is a prediction.
Where it stands
USD/JPY fell 0.75% last week to 156.81, after a range of 156.07 to 158.59 (Bullquill, Yahoo Finance data). CNBC described it as the yen's best week since early September, helped by safe haven demand during the sell-off in technology shares on 22 October, when the Nasdaq lost nearly 3%. Japan's core inflation rose above 2% for the first time in nine months (CNBC). The Bank of Japan's own data for 23 October show 156.52 at 9:00 and 156.95 at 17:00 Tokyo time, with a day range of 156.08 to 157.16.
Events this week
| When (GMT) | Event |
|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct | UK clocks went back one hour; US clocks change on 1 November, so London and New York are four hours apart this week |
| Mon 26 Oct | German Ifo business climate (October); China's Fifth Plenum runs from 26 to 29 October |
| Tue 27 Oct | FOMC meeting begins; US durable goods orders (September) and consumer confidence (October) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 00:30 GMT | Australia CPI (September and Q3) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 01:00 GMT | RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision |
| Wed 28 Oct, about 12:30 GMT (expected) | UK Autumn Budget and OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook |
| Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 GMT | Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report |
| Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT | FOMC decision; press conference 18:30 GMT |
| Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 GMT | US Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation |
| Thu 29 Oct, 13:15 GMT | ECB decision; press conference 13:45 GMT |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo morning | Tokyo CPI (October) |
| Fri 30 Oct, Tokyo midday (no fixed time) | Bank of Japan decision and Outlook Report |
| Fri 30 Oct | German and euro area Q3 GDP; German flash CPI (October) |
| Tue 3 Nov and Thu 5 Nov | Next week: RBA decision and US midterm elections (3 November); Bank of England decision (5 November) |
UK time equals GMT from 25 October. Times are scheduled times from the issuing institutions and market calendars; check before trading. Highlighted rows matter most for USD/JPY. Background: economic events explained and central bank rates.
What matters this week
The Fed on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Friday frame the week. Newsquawk expects the BoJ to hold its policy rate at around 1.25% after September's hike, with December seen as the more likely time for the next move; CNBC put market odds of a December BoJ hike at 59%. Tokyo CPI for October comes out the same morning. On the US side, a hold is expected on Wednesday, and Thursday's GDP and PCE data feed straight into Treasury yields; Bullquill noted that the US 10-year yield fell below 5% on 22 October.
Scenarios
Upside case. A Fed that keeps a December hike firmly in view, firm PCE inflation and a Bank of Japan that avoids committing to December could lift USD/JPY back towards 158.59, last week's high.
Downside case. A cautious Fed, lower US yields, another bout of risk aversion in equities or a Bank of Japan that sounds more confident on further hikes could take the pair below 156.07, last week's low.
Either can happen, and the first reaction to a release often reverses. Read the USD/JPY guide for the longer term drivers.
Levels in focus
- Resistance: 158.59, last week's high (Bullquill)
- Reference: 156.81 close on 23 October (Bullquill); Bank of Japan central rate 156.45 that day
- Support: 156.07, last week's low (Bullquill)
How USD/JPY usually trades
USD/JPY is closely tied to the difference between US and Japanese interest rates. For many years Japan kept rates at or below zero while US rates moved higher, which made the yen a popular funding currency for carry trades and pushed the pair up over long periods. The Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates in 2024, so the policy gap and every hint about future Japanese hikes now carry more weight than they did for most of the previous decade.
The yen can also strengthen quickly when global markets turn risk averse and carry trades are closed. Intervention is a further, specific risk: Japan's Ministry of Finance decides on intervention and the Bank of Japan carries it out, and the authorities sold dollars to support the yen in both 2022 and 2024. Comments from Japanese officials about excessive moves are watched closely for that reason.
The pair trades actively in the Tokyo session and again in New York, where it often follows US Treasury yields. Japanese data and Bank of Japan decisions arrive during Asian hours, when liquidity can be thinner than in London.
Managing risk this week
With several central bank decisions in a few days, spreads can widen and gaps are possible around announcements. Size trades from the stop with the position size calculator and consider smaller size or no new positions just before the main releases. Forexuro trade alerts always include a stop loss; see the USD/JPY signals page, and follow the free Telegram channel for updates during the week.
Sources
- Bullquill: Dollar Index This Week, weekly forex brief, 23 October 2026 (Yahoo Finance data) (link)
- CNBC: Euro sinks on French debt worries; yen gains on AI rout, 23 October 2026 (link)
- Newsquawk: Week in Focus, 26 to 30 October 2026, published 23 October 2026 (link)
- Bank of Japan: Foreign exchange rates, 23 October 2026 (link)
- Bank of Japan: monetary policy releases 2026, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC target range history, checked 25 October 2026 (link)
Prices are approximate reference levels at the time of writing and will have changed. This is the first weekly edition, refreshed on 25 October 2026 with the closing levels of the week to 23 October; outlooks for other markets: EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/CHF · AUD/USD · USD/CAD · NZD/USD · EUR/GBP · XAU/USD.
Education only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money, and leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Read our risk disclosure.